Tennis Betting Advice - July 2018

5/1 Siegemund to take it from here…

Thursday 26th July 2018

In your Ones to Watch email today:

  • 10 Double Faults…
  • Bottom half the place to be…
  • 5/1 Siegemund to take it from here…

10 Double Faults…

I’m all about the PMA this evening. Positive Mental Attitude.

Daria Kasatkina getting knocked out of the Moscow River Cup was a big blow. But one door closes and another opens and the bottom section of the draw now looks very good for a clay court player that we’ve been following as ‘One to Watch’ since her return from injury this spring – Laura Siegemund.

I quick word on Kasatkina. She had a bad day. Simple as that. Daria gifted Tamara Zidansek several points on her own serve – chiefly due to a hefty 10 Double Faults, several of which came on break points. Kasatkina will be back and I will be looking to back her again soon. And after reaching the Indian Wells final for us at 80/1 earlier this year, she owes us nothing.

Bottom half the place to be…

With three of the four favourites in the revised WTA Moscow Outright Winner market sitting in the top half of the draw, Laura Siegemund is the one I strongly fancy to come through to the final – with a great shot of landing what would be an emotional first trophy win since last year’s career-threatening injury.

Back in April we pencilled in Siegemund as One to Watch on the clay this season, and while the French Open ended up coming too soon in her comeback for her to make an impact in Paris, the German is looking sharp and playing well again now – in what is her eighth tournament proper back on the tour. She skipped the grass court season to play exclusively on clay; this is the 30-year-old’s best surface and she knows it.

While a quarter final in Moscow against World No.13 Kasatkina would have been tough (and I would have been firmly with the Russian), the bottom half of the draw now presents a fantastic opportunity for Siegemund to have another shot at some silverware…

Rankings don’t tell the full story, but the players left in the bottom section are Zidansek ranked #90, then a potential semi final would be against #199 Valentyna Ikakhnenko or #204 Anastasia Potapova. I say rankings don’t tell the whole story as Potapova is just 17 years of age and therefore yet to get a full foothold in the rankings, while Siegemund herself is currently a lowly #217 after her injury setbacks, having been as high as No.27 in the world less than two years ago.

At 5/1 with reduced place terms of 1/3rd the odds for reaching the final this won’t be everyone’s idea of an Each Way bet, but for me I like the ‘money back if Siegemund gets to the final’ that that option offers. And she’ll be a clear favourite to win both her next two matches to get there.

WTA Moscow – Moscow River Cup

Outright Winner:

BET: Laura Siegemund @ 5/1 Each Way
BOOKIES: 5/1 (6.00) Bet365, Skybet, NetBet, 10Bet 
Latest odds here

  • Each Way terms: 1/3 odds 1-2 places

Play continues in Moscow from 9am UK time, so get your bets on before then for this one.

I’ll be back ready for the start of next week when there are five more tournaments for us to look at.

Enjoy the tennis…

Best wishes,

Oliver Upstone

Tom Wilson

Ones to Watch