Tennis Betting Advice - July 2018
Wimbledon: Bets of the Day – 18/1, 20/1 and 50/1 picks…
Monday 2nd July 2018
In your Ones to Watch email today:
Wimbledon – Bets of the Day
Good morning and welcome to Day 1 of your Wimbledon 2018 coverage…
Play starts in the 1st Round from 11.30am.
The sun is shining, the grass is green – and we have a fortnight of fantastic tennis to look forward to…
Outright Winner picks – at 18/1, 20/1 and 50/1…
We’re holding fire on the match betting for day one, and concentrating on getting our first bets down in the Outright Winner markets…
We’ll start with a word on the two pre-tournament 50/1 outsiders from our Wimbledon 2018 – Ones to Watch report, Kevin Anderson and Magdalena Rybarikova.
Anderson is in the same section of the Men’s draw as reigning champion Roger Federer. The South African is the second-favourite in the 1st Quarter Winner market at 10/1 at best, behind Federer. His Outright price remains 50/1 as I write, although the Federer-factor obviously puts a bit of a question mark by him.
Rybarikova @ 50/1…
Rybarikova can also still be backed at 50/1 today with a couple of bookies (40/1 in general) – and that’s a price I do like right now. As I said in the report, the Slovakian is something of a grass court specialist and has a won 23 lost 4 record on the grass since the start of the 2017 season (excluding retirements).
At first glance Rybarikova’s placing in the 4th Quarter of the Women’s draw, where she is a 16/1 underdog behind five other players, might look a bit scary. The likes of Serena Williams, Madison Keys, Caroline Wozniacki, Elina Svitolina and Coco Vandeweghe are all in there.
However, right now Serena is not the force of recent years and there are doubts over the form of Vandeweghe, as well as the career Wimbledon records of Top 5 players Svitolina and Wozniacki. And while Keys is dangerous and has done well for us in other events in the last 12 months, she has faltered a little in the biggest matches. Rybarikova is available at twice the odds of all of those names barring fellow 50/1 shot Vandeweghe (who Rybarikova beat here last year).
Rybarikova made the Wimbledon semi finals last summer and has shown form this season with a run to the WTA Birmingham final on grass last month. If her fitness holds up then she has the game and guile to put together another strong outsider run this coming fortnight.
Zverev @ 20/1…
For now I’m not going to mess with Federer in the top half of the Men’s draw. But in the bottom half I want to take on Novak Djokovic and Rafael Nadal with two other bigger hitters who are both available at more than twice the odds of those two…
Still only 21 years old, Alexander Zverev is ranked No.3 in the world and becoming a genuine big name in the game.
Much has been made of his failure to get past the quarter finals of a Grand Slam event as of yet. But the pressure appears to be off him a bit here on grass with hardly anyone talking up his chances (unlike at the French Open last time out). At 6’6” he has a booming serve that can be a great weapon for him on all surfaces, as well as big groundstrokes giving him the power to hit through anyone.
Zverev is in the 3rd Quarter of the draw here where he’s the 5/1 (6.00) third favourite to come through behind the 15/8 (2.88) market leader Djokovic and the supremely talented but temperamental and injury-prone Nick Kyrgios at 9/2 (5.50). In the Outright Winner market we can get 20/1 Each Way and that’s the price that stands out for me. He’s beaten both Djokovic and Kyrgios before, and if one or both of those two fall by the wayside here, Zverev will become a strong favourite in this section.
Del Potro @ 18/1…
World No.4 Juan Martin Del Potro is now 29 years of age and with his long spell of injuries looking to be behind him at last, the 2009 US Open champion is a Grand Slam contender once again.
He was a Wimbledon semi-finalist in 2013, only going down in five sets to Djokovic. And in two of the last three Majors, the popular 6’6” Argentinean has mounted a serious challenge with semi final runs at both the French Open this year and the US Open last summer.
Del Potro is in the 4th Quarter of the draw where he is the 3/1 (4.00) second favourite behind Nadal at Evens (2.00).
Between them Nadal and Federer have won each of the last six Grand Slam titles, but unlike Roger, Rafa hasn’t done it at Wimbledon for quite some time…
Following up a French Open win on clay with Wimbledon on grass a month later is a huge ask for anyone – even the greats. Nadal hasn’t made the final here at SW19 since 2011, and has gone out in the 4th Round or earlier on each of his last five visits. If that happens again, then he wouldn’t get far enough to come up against Del Potro – should our man get that far.
At odds of 18/1 and 16/1 Each Way, Del Potro is my other pick from the bottom half of the Men’s draw, along with 20/1 Zverev.
In the Women’s, my first pick is Rybarikova at 50/1 or 40/1, if you haven’t already backed her from our pre-tournament Ones to Watch report.
Outright Winner – Women’s:
BET: Magdalena Rybarikova @ 50/1 Each Way
BOOKIES: 50/1 (51.00) Skybet, Betfred, Boylesports, 40/1 (41.00) in general
Latest odds here
Outright Winner – Men’s:
BET: Alexander Zverev @ 20/1 Each Way
BOOKIES: 20/1 (21.00) Bet365, Betfred, Boylesports, 18/1 (19.00) William Hill, NetBet, 10Bet, 16/1 (17.00) in general
Latest odds here
BET: Juan Martin Del Potro @ 18/1 Each Way
BOOKIES: 18/1 (19.00) NetBet, 10Bet, SpreadEx, 16/1 (17.00) in general
Latest odds here
I’ll be back at 8am tomorrow with your Wimbledon Bets of the Day for Tuesday.
Enjoy the tennis…