Tennis Betting Advice - July 2018

Wimbledon: Bets of the Day – Vika to shine on Centre Court…

Wednesday 4th July 2018

In your Ones to Watch email today:

  • Wimbledon Day 3 – play starts 11.30am…
  • Vika to shine on Centre Court…
  • Ten to win at 9/1…

Wimbledon – Bets of the Day

Good morning and welcome to Day 3 of your Wimbledon 2018 coverage…

Play starts at 11.30am.

The favourite falls…

We’re only two days into Wimbledon and already the familiar theme of recent years rings true – the Women’s event is wide open

On Monday, French Open runner-up and reigning US Open champion Sloane Stephens went out, as did World No.5 Elina Svitolina.

Then on Tuesday, two former Wimbledon champions were both sent packing – Maria Sharapova and 4/1 pre-tournament favourite Petra Kvitova both crashing out in the 1st Round.

The Men’s draw has seen a few early big-name casualties, too. Top 10 players Grigor Dimitrov, David Goffin and French Open runner-up Dominic Thiem all fell at the first hurdle.

Overall, 11 Men’s seeds and 10 Women’s seeds have fallen already.

This is all good news for us. We want shocks. We love surprises. We look for upsets. There are big prices and value opportunities to be had.

On the match betting front we’ve made a slow start, with neither of our first two selections coming off. However at odds of 3/1 and 13/1 we do not need them all to win to get our noses out in front overall. There’s a long way to go yet. We weren’t far off finding an upset yesterday with 3/1 underdog Gabriella Taylor pushing Eugenie Bouchard to a final set, before eventually being outclassed.

Outside chances in the Outright markets…

In the Men’s Outright Winner market, we’ve deliberately avoided the top half of the draw where king Roger Federer resides, plumping instead for two double-figure prices in the bottom half with Alexander Zverev (20/1) and Juan Martin Del Potro (18/1). Both got their campaigns underway yesterday with routine 3-0 wins.

In the bottom half of the Women’s draw, we have 40/1 Venus Williams on our side.

With Kvitova (among others) now gone from the top half, we will be getting an Each Way contender at an attractive price in the book there, too. We’ll take a look at the players who could capitalise in the top half tomorrow, when that section of the draw plays again in the 2nd Round.

Moving on to today’s matches and opportunities…

Looking for the upsets…

Victoria Azarenka to beat Karolina Pliskova

Belarussian former World No.1 Azarenka has a 3-2 career head-to-head v Pliskova (1-1 in meetings this year), but it’s the Wimbledon factor that could prove most significant today…

As we noted yesterday, World No.8 Pliskova has something of a Wimbledon hoodoo, having yet to get past the 2nd Round in seven visits to SW19. Today’s match is another 2nd Round encounter and surely the Czech will be aware of past results as she lines up against two-time Wimbledon semi-finalist Azarenka.

Form-wise, Pliskova had to battle through her 1st Round match against a player ranked No.171 in the world, eventually getting through 2-1. Azarenka had a smoother path with a 2-0 opening win against an opponent ranked No.110.

Azarenka has dropped down the rankings (currently No.87) having had time off the tour for childbirth, injury and personal reasons in the past couple of years. However, age 28 she is far from done, and Vika showed she can still play when reaching the semi finals at the big Miami event earlier this season.

Pliskova is a quiet character on court compared to Azarenka, who will whoop and yell her way through this match. Vika is an imposing character when in the mood and a big match like this on the Wimbledon main stage is exactly the kind of encounter we can expect her to bring her A-game to. This match is first on Centre Court, starting 1pm.

Back Azarenka as the underdog today.

Match Winner:

BET: Victoria Azarenka to beat Karolina Pliskova @ 7/5
BOOKIES: 7/5 (2.40) Betway, NetBet, 10Bet, 11/8 (2.38) Bet365, BetVictor, SunBets, 13/10 (2.30) William Hill, Boylesports
Latest odds here

Ten to win at 9/1…

There are no fewer than 32 matches across the 2nd Round schedule today. Having done my research, I’m looking to pick the winner in ten of them, with the acca paying around 9/1…

M.RAONIC to beat J.Millman
G.MONFILS to beat P.Lorenzi
S.QUERREY to beat S.Stakhovsky
J.ISNER to beat R.Bemelmans
S.WAWRINKA to beat T.Fabbiano

M.BUZARNESCU to beat K.Swan
D.VEKIC to beat R.Peterson
V.WILLIAMS to beat A.Dulgheru
J.GOERGES to beat V.Lapko
K.SINIAKOVA to beat O.Jabeur

Match Winner – Acca:

BET: 10-fold on the players above to all win @ 9/1
BOOKIES: 9/1 (10.00) Bet365, William Hill, BetVictor, Boylesports, SunBets
Latest odds here

In summary…

Here are today’s Bets of the Day (see above for full details):

Victoria Azarenka to beat Karolina Pliskova @ 7/5

10-fold Match Winner acca @ 9/1

  • Take a look at our Tennis Betting Rules page to see why I recommend certain bookies over others
  • Unless otherwise stated in your Ones to Watch emails, all Outright Winner picks are treated as 1 point Each Way stakes and all Match picks are treated as 1 point

I’ll be back at 8am tomorrow with your Bets of the Day for Thursday.

Enjoy the tennis…

Best wishes,

Oliver Upstone

Tom Wilson

Ones to Watch