Tennis Betting Advice - July 2018

Wimbledon: Bets of the Day – 300/1 and 40/1 outsiders…

Thursday 5th July 2018

In your Ones to Watch email today:

  • Wimbledon Day 4 – play starts 11.30am…
  • 300/1 and 40/1 outsiders…
  • Match picks at 10/1…

Wimbledon – Bets of the Day

Good morning and welcome to Day 4 of your Wimbledon 2018 coverage…

Play starts at 11.30am.

5 out of 8… 7 out of 10…

We’ll start with some numbers this morning.

Five of the top eight Women’s seeds have been knocked out already… World No.2 Caroline Wozniacki – who has never been past the quarter finals at Wimbledon – was dumped out in the 2nd Round by 5/1 match underdog Ekaterina Makarova. The Dane’s defeat follows early exits for Sloane Stephens, Petra Kvitova, Elina Svitolina and Caroline Garcia. The shocks & surprises are there to see. The Women’s draw has a wide open feel to it once again, and we’re adding to our 40/1 pick Venus Williams from the bottom half with two big prices in the top half of the draw today – see below.

Seven of the ten players in yesterday’s 9/1 Match Winner acca have won…John Isner is at two sets all and resumes today, Stan Wawrinka is two sets down but has the chance to try and turn it around today having slept on it – and Katerina Siniakova didn’t get on court last night so her match has moved to today’s schedule.

300/1 and 40/1 outsiders…

After pre-tournament 4/1 favourite and two-time winner Kvitova went out in the 1st Round, I said we’d be looking closely at the top half of the Women’s draw. Someone looks likely to come through to the quarter finals or beyond at a big Outright Winner price and there are two names that stand out for me at very attractive Each Way prices.

As ever, I’m looking beyond the favourites and the single-figure prices. The fact that five of the top eight women are already out of the tournament gives us more than enough reason to look for an underdog to capitalise here…

Flipkens @ 300/1…

Kirsten Flipkens is the rank outsider who catches the eye for me at 150/1 – with one bookmaker offering double that at a massive 300/1.

The 32-year-old Belgian is ranked No.45 in the world and is a former Wimbledon semi-finalist (2013). She is having a great 2018 grass court season so far with a 9-1 win-loss match record – including reaching the final at WTA s’Hertogenbosch last month.

Flipkens is priced up as a slight underdog to beat 21-year-old Jelena Ostapenko today, but has the greater grass court experience and the tricky slices & volleys game that could catch out the off-the-hip hitting Latvian. They’ve met twice before – on hard courts – and Flipkens won 2-0 each time.

If she gets through today, after that looks to be a very winnable route through to the quarter finals where World No.1 Simona Halep is seeded to be the opponent. This is Halep’s first tournament since winning her first Grand Slam at the French Open last month; it would be no big surprise if the Romanian joined the club of recent first-time winners who fell in their very next Grand Slam (Stephens, Wozniacki, Kerber, Ostapenko all recent examples).

Flipkens is in the 1st Quarter of the draw where she is 20/1 at best, but I want the big 300/1 or 150/1 Outright Winner price on our side which would give us loads to work with if she does put a bit of a run together here.

Osaka @ 40/1…

In the 2nd Quarter, I’m going with youth. Naomi Osaka is 11/1 at best in that section but it’s the 40/1 Each Way price that we want…

The 20-year-old is at a career-best No.18 in the rankings and looks the best outsider prospect from this section of the draw. Osaka is a big favourite to beat Britain’s Katie Boulter today. A crunch match to come would likely be an encounter with 2016 Wimbledon runner-up Angelique Kerber, who is now single figures (7/1) for the title after Petra Kvitova crashed out. Osaka has beaten Kerber once in three meetings.

Osaka is the kind of player who can get on a hot streak, and when she does she can blast past anyone. It happened at Indian Wells in March where the Japanese youngster swept past the likes of Sharapova, Radwanska, Pliskova and Halep (all Grand Slam finalists or winners), all in straight sets, before wiping the floor 2-0 v fellow rising star Kasatkina in the final.

Naomi reminds me a bit of Sloane Stephens – blessed with the ability of appearing to be almost nerveless; a great tennis player but also a character with a bit of an outsider quality. Osaka is certainly one of the most amusing players to listen to in interviews.

Compared to just 7/1 for Kerber, 40/1 for Osaka is the value pick to make a run through from this section. She has the fast shots and serve to go well on grass, and looks sure to make a breakthrough Grand Slam run sooner rather than later.

Women’s Outright Winner:

BET: Kirsten Flipkens @ 300/1 Each Way
BOOKIES: 300/1 (301.00) Betfred, 150/1 (151.00) Bet365, Ladbrokes, Coral, William Hill, Betway, Marathonbet, BetVictor

BET: Naomi Osaka @ 40/1 Each Way
BOOKIES: 40/1 (41.00) Skybet, Betfair Sportsbook, Paddy Power, 33/1 (34.00) general

Latest odds here

  • Each Way terms: 1/2 odds 1-2 places

Match picks at 10/1…

There are another 32 matches on the 2nd Round schedule today. And having done my match research, I like these nine – with the accumulator paying around 10/1…

G.SIMON to beat M.Berrettini
K.EDMUND to beat B.Klahn
K.NISKIKORI to beat B.Tomic
D.SHAPOVALOV to beat B.Paire

A.BARTY to beat E.Bouchard
N.OSAKA to beat K.Boulter
C.SUAREZ NAVARRO to beat S.Sorribes Tormo
D.KASATKINA to beat Y.Putintseva
A.KONTAVEIT to beat J.Brady

Match Winner – Acca:

BET: Nine-fold on the players above to all win @ 10/1
BOOKIES: 10/1 (11.00) Boylesports, William Hill, SunBets, 9/1 (10.00) Bet365, Betway, NetBet, 10Bet
Latest odds here

In summary…

Here are today’s Bets of the Day (see above for full details):

Women’s Outright Winner – Kirsten Flipkens @ 300/1 Each Way

Women’s Outright Winner – Naomi Osaka @ 40/1 Each Way

Nine-fold Match Winner acca @ 10/1

  • Take a look at our Tennis Betting Rules page to see why I recommend certain bookies over others
  • Unless otherwise stated in your Ones to Watch emails, all Outright Winner picks are treated as 1 point Each Way stakes and all Match picks are treated as 1 point

I’ll be back at 8am tomorrow with your Bets of the Day for Friday.

Enjoy the tennis…

Best wishes,

Oliver Upstone

Tom Wilson

Ones to Watch