Wimbledon: Bets of the Day – six for today at 10/1…

Friday 6th July 2018

In your Ones to Watch email today:

• Wimbledon Day 5 – play starts 11.30am…
• 40/1 Osaka into the 3rd Round…
• Six for today at 10/1…

Wimbledon – Bets of the Day

Good morning and welcome to Day 5 of your Wimbledon 2018 coverage…

Play starts at 11.30am.

Big shocks and big chances…

They’re calling it ‘Wild Wimbledon.’

We said we wanted shocks and upsets – and that’s what we’re getting.

Yet more big names tumbled out yesterday…

Marin Cilic lost to Guido Pella, who was 12/1 to beat last year’s runner-up – a match price that was bigger than Cilic’s price to win the whole tournament outright.

In the Women’s, reigning champion Garbine Muguruza was knocked out in the 2nd Round by World No.47 Alison Van Uytvanck. That’s the earliest a defending champ has gone out since Steffi Graf in 1994.

Elsewhere, 2017 semi-finalist Johanna Konta was also sent packing.

We’re not even at the end of week one and already we’ve seen six of the top 10 Women’s seeds and four of the top 10 Men’s seeds knocked out.

Our outsiders…

Those shocks & surprises inevitably open up the draw for a less-heralded name to come through in the second week.

We could have one of them on our hands…

Naomi Osaka (40/1) is in the top half of the Women’s draw – and after winning 2-0 yesterday, and with Muguruza gone from that half, the 20-year-old from Japan is now a general 25/1 shot. Next up is a massive match against Angelique Kerber (who is just 6/1 for the title). The winner of that one should fancy their chances of going a long way.

In the bottom half, Venus Williams (40/1) is now also a general 25/1 shot.

In the bottom side of the Men’s draw – the opposite side to Roger Federer – Alexander Zverev (20/1) has some work to do, due back on court this afternoon with a 2-1 deficit to try and overcome against Taylor Fritz. Juan Martin Del Potro (18/1) is looking good so far though – after back-to-back 3-0 wins, he’s now 12/1 to go all the way.

We’ve gone for big prices every day so far. We’re still waiting to get off the mark. But it’s early days. Two of our outsider picks have gone out, Magdalena Rybarikova (50/1) and Kirsten Flipkens (300/1). But as mentioned above, one of our remaining Outright Winner picks could yet prove to be our best bet of the tournament.

On the Match Winner front, it’s time for me to wheel out the ‘near miss’ line once again. On Wednesday, our 9/1 acca saw nine of the 10 players winning. On Thursday, our 10/1 acca got eight out of nine. One winner like that and we’ll be smiling in the sun.

Six for today at 10/1…

The 3rd Round starts today with 16 matches on the Friday schedule.

Looking for the upsets…

I’d have liked to have seen bigger than 7/4 (2.75) for the in-form Mihaela Buzarnescu to take out World No.8 Karolina Pliskova.

Radu Albot (4/1) can be expected to put up a good fight against John Isner. But after two five-sets matches in a row, Albot might not quite have enough to get past Isner who rattled down a frightening 64 Aces in the last round.

Kristina Mladenovic is 10/3 (4.33) to upset Serena Williams today. This will be Williams’ toughest opponent of the week so far, but the Frenchwoman tends to get nervy at the big moments (watch out for Double Faults on crucial points) and I’m not sure she actually believes she can beat Serena.

As we enter week two we’ll have more focus on individual matches and the wider range of markets that will be available, such as Aces & Double Faults, as well as other stats-based areas like Total Games.

For today though I’m sticking with the approach of combining my top Match Winner picks of the day in a multiple, with a big payout the potential reward. The early rounds of a Grand Slam give us loads of matches to choose from, and these six make the cut for me today…

Men:

• KEVIN ANDERSON to beat Philipp Kohlschreiber. Anderson is our pre-tournament 50/1 ‘One to Watch’ in the Men’s event and has started well this week. Kohlschreiber can play on grass but Anderson has the big serve and also has a 2-0 head-to-head record v the German
• SAM QUERREY to beat Gael Monfils. Monfils is supremely talented and a crowd-pleaser who can hit winners from anywhere, but last year’s semi-finalist Querrey is more reliable, has a massive serve and has won both his matches so far this week without dropping a set
• GUIDO PELLA to beat Mackenzie MacDonald. Pella should be on a high after taking out Cilic yesterday, coming from 0-2 down to win 3-2 in one of the biggest shocks of the tournament. That match was carried over from the night before so Pella wasn’t actually on court too long on Thursday. The Argentinean left-hander is more experienced than MacDonald and can keep his run going today

Women:

• LUCIE SAFAROVA to beat Ekaterina Makarova. Makarova had a good win over World No.2 Caroline Wozniacki on Wednesday but wobbled a lot when trying to close out the match, and may suffer a comedown today. Safarova has a lefty serve and forehand that can cause problems, and leads their head-to-head 4-1 including a win here at Wimbledon in their only previous meeting on grass
• CAMILA GIORGI to beat Katerina Siniakova. Two players here that will both be going for their shots. Giorgi looks to be improving to me this season and Siniakova comes into this after two gruelling matches that went all the way in a third set, lasting two and a half hours in the last round and three hours in the 1st Round. The fast-hitting Giorgi can take her out today
• DONNA VEKIC to beat Yanina Wickmayer. Vekic knocked out Sloane Stephens 2-0 in the 1st Round and followed that up with another straight sets win in the 2nd Round. The 22-year-old Croatian has the game for grass and reached the semi finals at Birmingham last month. Wickmayer has her moments but years of injury problems mean her best days look to be behind her; she’s still only 28 but struggles for form and consistency

Match Winner – Acca:

BET: Six-fold on the players above to all win @ 10/1
BOOKIES: 10/1 (11.00) William Hill, BetVictor, Boylesports, SunBets, 9/1 (10.00) Bet365, Betway, NetBet, 10Bet
Latest odds here

In summary…

Here are today’s Bets of the Day (see above for full details):

Six-fold Match Winner acca @ 10/1

• Take a look at our Tennis Betting Rules page to see why I recommend certain bookies over others

I’ll be back at 8am tomorrow with your Bets of the Day for Saturday.

Enjoy the tennis…

Best wishes,

Tom Wilson

Ones to Watch