Tennis Betting Advice - July 2018
Wimbledon: Bets of the Day – a 20/1 pick on Manic Monday…
Monday 9th July 2018
In your Ones to Watch email today:
Wimbledon – Bets of the Day
Good morning and welcome to Day 7 of your Wimbledon 2018 coverage…
Play starts at 11.30am.
We haven’t seen this many seeds knocked out of Wimbledon so early for five years. In 2013 the Women’s final ended up as 100/1 Marion Bartoli beating 80/1 Sabine Lisicki. We were on both players.
So far at Wimbledon 2018 we’ve seen stacks of big names wiped off the draw-sheet, especially in the Women’s where a remarkable nine of the top 10 seeds have been knocked out already – and we’re only halfway through the fortnight.
However, as of yet we haven’t backed the ‘right’ outsiders. We’ve gone for big prices and that approach means we will always back more losers than winners. It also means that when the big wins come then they are more than worth the wait.
Week one was not good for us. But week two starts today and we can turn it around.
In the Men’s event we have Juan Martin Del Potro still standing strong, at 18/1 or 16/1 Each Way. He’s now half those prices and Del Potro plays again today v Gilles Simon, where he’s the big favourite to prevail and book a place in the quarter finals.
A whole new ball game…
It’s ‘Manic Monday’ – a big day on the Wimbledon schedule with all 16 of the 4th Round matches set to be played across both the Men’s & Women’s Singles. Meaning by sundown we should know the full quarter final line-ups.
In the Women’s event, with nine of the top 10 seeds gone, we need to step back and look at the draw afresh today.
There are 16 players left in the Women’s draw. We can treat this as a new, mini-tournament. Albeit one with the biggest prize of them all…
As it stands, Serena Williams is the 7/4 (2.75) tournament favourite, followed by 2016 runner-up Angelique Kerber at 7/2 (4.50) and the highest-ranked player left in the draw, 7th seed Karolina Pliskova at 8/1 (9.00).
Williams and Pliskova are in the bottom half of the draw.
In the top half, where the big name casualties so far include World No.1 Simona Halep, pre-tournament favourite & two-time Wimbledon winner Petra Kvitova and reigning champion Garbine Muguruza – one player catches the eye as a 20/1 outsider…
A 20/1 pick on Manic Monday…
Dominika Cibulkova made a few headlines the week before Wimbledon. The Slovakian was the one to miss out on a seeding by one place, after the All England Club opted to give Serena Williams a seeding in the draw. On the World Rankings, the final seed spot would have gone to Cibulkova.
She says she’s moved on from that now but nevertheless it forms an interesting part of the Wimbledon 2018 storyline…
Cibulkova has always played with fire in her belly, and surely no-one in the draw will be looking at the opportunity posed this week with wider eyes and more drive & focus than Domi…
Standing just 5’3” tall, and playing with an intense, energetic style, Cibulkova has earned affectionate nicknames such as ‘Fire,’ ‘The Pocket Rocket’ and ‘The Energizer Bunny.’
In week one she motored through the first three rounds with wins over three tricky and respected opponents – Alize Cornet, Johanna Konta and Elise Mertens – winning each of them in straight sets, 2-0.
Today she faces Halep’s conqueror, Su-Wei Hseih, a player that Cibulkova has a 2-0 head-to-head record against.
After that the bookies’ odds say she is likely to face Jelena Ostapenko. Again, the head-to-head would be in Cibulkova’s favour at 2 wins to nil, including one on grass.
At that stage we’d then be looking at the semi finals, where odds of 20/1 or 18/1 for Cibulkova would give us plenty of room to manoeuvre.
Cibulkova has threatened and done well at Grand Slams before. She was runner-up at the Australian Open in 2014, and has made the quarter finals at least once at each of the three other Grand Slams…
The 29-year-old has reached the Wimbledon quarter finals twice before, and a win today would make it three. Last time it happened, in 2016, she had to postpone her wedding in order to accommodate her week-two run. Cibulkova’s husband is with her here and they will be looking to stay in SW19 until the end this year.
We could yet see plenty more twists and turns in this tournament. Today, in the top half of the Women’s draw, the player to back is Dominika.
Outright Winner – Women’s:
BET: Dominika Cibulkova @ 20/1 Each Way
BOOKIES: 20/1 (21.00) Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook, 18/1 (19.00) Bet365, Skybet, William Hill, Betway, Boylesports
Latest odds here
I’ll be back at 8am tomorrow with your Bets of the Day for Tuesday.
Enjoy the tennis…