Tennis Betting Advice - July 2018
Wimbledon: Bets of the Day – Women’s Quarter Finals…
Tuesday 10th July 2018
In your Ones to Watch email today:
Wimbledon – Bets of the Day
Good morning and welcome to Day 8 of your Wimbledon 2018 coverage…
Play starts at 1pm.
Del Potro to finish today…
‘Manic Monday’ saw 15 of the 16 matches completed, with Juan Martin Del Potro v Gilles Simon the only one still to be completed.
With light fading last night, our 18/1 Men’s Outright Winner pick Del Potro was leading by two sets to one. The match continues from around 1pm today.
That match provides the only box still to be filled on the Quarter Finals draw-sheet. It’s Women’s Quarters day today with four big matches on the big courts…
Women’s Quarter Finals…
Let’s take a look at the eight players battling it out for a place in the final four.
Dominika Cibulkova v Jelena Ostapenko
Rankings: Cibulkova #33, Ostapenko #12
Head-to-Head: Cibulkova 2-0
Match odds: Cibulkova 11/10 (2.10), Ostapenko 8/11 (1.73)
We got on Cibulkova as a 20/1 outsider yesterday. That proved a good time to back her in the Outright Winner market as Monday ended up being the last day that bookies were offering standard Each Way terms of 1/2 odds for 1-2 places. The terms have now been chopped to 1/3 odds. After a 2-0 win yesterday, Cibulkova is now 14/1 at best to go all the way.
Ostapenko was 10/1 for the title yesterday and is now 8/1. The Latvian is the slight favourite in the match betting today; higher ranked, younger and seemingly playing with the shackles off once again after flopping in the 1st Round at the French Open last month when defending her maiden Grand Slam title.
Expect both players to be lively on court today, swinging freely and going for their shots with plenty of fist-pumps and facial expressions. Both are playing with confidence – Cibulkova and Ostapenko have both won all four matches here in straight sets, 2-0, and have both conceded just 23 games each along the way.
This should be close and an entertaining watch. The head-to-head is 2-0 in our favour including a grass court victory for Cibulkova in 2016. One of these two will reach a first Wimbledon Semi Final today. I’m sticking with our outsider Cibulkova to keep up her impressive run.
Daria Kasatkina v Angelique Kerber
Rankings: Kasatkina #14, Kerber #10
Match odds: Kasatkina 7/4 (2.75), Kerber 4/9 (1.44)
Kerber is the highest ranked player left in the draw and the experienced German was Wimbledon runner-up in 2016.
This is 21-year-old Kasatkina’s second ever Grand Slam Quarter Final appearance. In her first one at the French Open last month she was overawed by the occasion, losing 2-0 to Sloane Stephens with the score 6-3, 6-1.
Kerber almost gave us a payout at Eastbourne before Wimbledon. Backed at 12/1 Each Way, she had match point in the Semi Finals but couldn’t take it and World No.2 Caroline Wozniacki went on to take the title. Kerber started Wimbledon at a similar price despite the larger Grand Slam field requiring seven match wins to take the title, compared to five at Eastbourne.
According to the bookies’ odds it will be a Kerber v Serena final. But we’ve already seen all of the top 10 Women’s seeds knocked out at Wimbledon 2018, and we might not be done with the giant-slaying in this tournament yet.
In terms of this match, Kerber to win 2-1 stands out for me in the Set Betting market. The German is just 4/9 (1.44) to win; she can do that by only two outcomes – a 2-0 win which is 6/5 (2.20) at best or the 2-1 score which is 3/1 (4.00).
These two played out a two-hour match on grass at Eastbourne just a couple of weeks ago, with Kerber coming through 6-1, 6-7, 7-6. Kasatkina started badly that day, and also dropped the first set in her 4th Round match yesterday. We could see a similar pattern this afternoon with Kasatkina making a nervy start, then getting into the match – but Kerber having just too much for her in the end. Kerber 2-1 is the value for me.
BET: Kerber to win 2-1 @ 3/1
BOOKIES: 3/1 (4.00) Betway, Betfair Sportsbook, Marathonbet, Sportingbet, 888 Sport, Unibet
Latest odds here
Kiki Bertens v Julia Goerges
Rankings: Bertens #20, Goerges #13
Head-to-Head: Bertens 2-0
Match odds: Bertens 10/11 (1.91), Goerges 10/11 (1.91)
You won’t see a closer set of Match Winner prices than these. The bookies can't split them but I like Bertens here.
Unlike Goerges, the Dutchwoman has been to a Grand Slam Quarter Final before and I rate Bertens as the less likely to be effected by nerves on what is a big day for both players.
Bertens has had the tougher run through the draw with impressive wins over World No.9 Venus Williams and World No.8 Karolina Pliskova setting her in good stead for today’s encounter with another big server. Goerges has hit more Aces than any other woman in the draw (41), but Bertens is right up there too in third place with 28 Aces.
Kiki has won both previous meetings against her German opponent and has the momentum to make it three today.
BET: Bertens to beat Goerges @ 10/11
BOOKIES: 10/11 (1.91) Bet365, BetVictor, Boylesports, Betway, NetBet, 10Bet, SunBets, William Hill
Latest odds here
Serena Williams v Camila Giorgi
Rankings: Williams #181, Giorgi #52
Head-to-Head: Williams 3-0
Match odds: Williams 1/5 (1.20), Giorgi 7/2 (4.50)
The Match Winner prices show that if we’re going to see another big upset in the Women’s draw today, then it will have to be this one…
Giorgi certainly has the shots to cause Serena problems, the real test though is if the Italian can keep the accurate big hitting up for two or three sets solid. There’s also the mental aspect and seeing as Giorgi has served more Double Faults than any other woman so far (38, which is 11 more than the next player on the list, Kasatkina), Serena will likely get plenty of joy prowling around and attacking the Giorgi second serve.
The underdog backer in me wants to see Giorgi put up a real fight here but my nose says Serena will have too much. No bet for me but I’ll be watching with interest.
Here are today’s Bets of the Day (see above for full details):
I’ll be back at 8am tomorrow with your Bets of the Day for Wednesday, which is Men’s Quarter Finals day.
Enjoy the tennis…