Tennis Betting Advice - July 2018

Wimbledon: Bets of the Day – Men’s Quarter Finals…

Wednesday 11th July 2018

In your Ones to Watch email today:

  • Wimbledon Day 9 – play starts 1pm…
  • Del Potro and Anderson on our side…
  • Men’s Quarter Finals…

Wimbledon – Bets of the Day

Good morning and welcome to Day 9 of your Wimbledon 2018 coverage…

Play starts at 1pm.

Del Potro and Anderson on our side…

Women’s Quarter Final day started full of promise, but our 20/1 shot Dominika Cibulkova was outgunned by the youngster from Latvia, Jelena Ostapenko. To put it simply, Ostapenko was simply too good on the day.

Things really could have been different in the other two matches we were involved with though. Our match pick Kiki Bertens won the first set v Julia Goerges and was 5-5 in the second set, two games from victory, before it all slipped away for Kiki.

Daria Kasatkina lost the first set v Angelique as anticipated, then improved in the second – but every time she got a break of serve Daria pretty much surrendered it back to the German. She came close to forcing a third set but as has been the theme over the first nine day of this year’s Wimbledon for us – not close enough.

Looking for better news in the Men’s today… our 18/1 or 16/1 Each Way pick Juan Martin Del Potro is through to the Quarter Finals where he will face Rafael Nadal. And from our pre-tournament Ones to Watch report, 50/1 Kevin Anderson has won 4 matches so far to earn himself a shot at the reigning champion Roger Federer.

The two big names in Men’s tennis stand in our way, but Del Potro and Anderson both possess big serves, brutal forehands and a fierce will to win – so as ever, the outsiders have a chance for us, at good prices.

Men’s Quarter Finals…

Here are the rankings, head-to-heads and prices for today’s four Men’s Quarter Final matches:

Novak Djokovic v Kei Nishikori

Rankings: Djokovic #21, Nishikori #28
Head-to-Head: Djokovic 13-2

Match odds: Djokovic 1/7 (1.14), Nishikori 5/1 (6.00)

Roger Federer v Kevin Anderson

Rankings: Federer #2, Anderson #8
Head-to-Head: Federer 4-0

Match odds: Federer 1/12 (1.08), Anderson 9/1 (10.00)

Juan Martin Del Potro v Rafael Nadal

Rankings: Del Potro #4, Nadal #1
Head-to-Head: Nadal 9-5

Match odds: Del Potro 9/4 (3.25), Nadal 4/11 (1.36)

33/1 for a straight-sets serve-fest…

Milos Raonic v John Isner

Rankings: Raonic #32, Isner #10
Head-to-Head: Isner 3-1

Match odds: Raonic 4/6 (1.67), Isner 6/5 (2.20)

This is the least glamourous match of the day but the one I’m most interesting in from a stats and betting point of view…

Both men stand way above six feet tall, with Raonic 6’5” and Isner 6’10”. These two are massive servers and are the two top in the Wimbledon standings for Most Aces so far, with the Canadian Raonic at 117 Aces and the American Isner out in front with 135 from 4 matches.

In their 4 previous encounters, no fewer than 7 of the 9 sets played between Raonic and Isner have gone to a Tiebreak (7-6 score). This will be their first meeting on grass – a surface where serve can be most dominant of all. Bookies are betting just 1/100 (1.01) that we’ll see a Tiebreak in today’s match (!).

Raonic is the match favourite in the betting today; he’s been to a Wimbledon Final before whereas this is already Isner’s best ever run at SW19. However, age 33, this has been a season of firsts for Isner with Big John winning the Miami Masters – the biggest title of his career to date – and establishing himself in the Top 10 for a sustained period for the first time.

I like Isner as the match underdog today. Obviously, serving will play a big part, and the American is ahead of his opponent in that respect in a few areas, with more Aces than anyone so far this Wimbledon fortnight, less Double Faults than Raonic – and the highest First Serves In percentage (77%).

Match Winner:

BET: Isner to beat Raonic @ 6/5
BOOKIES: 6/5 (2.20) Boylesports, Bet365, William Hill, SunBets, Betway, BetVictor
Latest odds here

As well as the Match Winner bet, we can go after a more exotic price for a big-serving Isner victory today…

We’ve had success in these Specials markets before and there are some eye-catching prices around today. Several bookies offer bet ‘combo’ features these days where a particular set of outcomes are priced up in one-off markets.

Options that catches the eye today includes those that centre on Isner winning in straight sets (3-0) with the serving stats or Tiebreaks coming into play too…

  • Ladbrokes (#GetAPrice markets) and Coral (#YourCall) offer ‘Isner to Win 3-0 and 3 Tiebreaks in the Match @ 33/1
  • That same outcome is worded differently in Skybet’s RequestABet markets with ‘Isner to win 7-6, 7-6, 7-6’ half the price @ 16/1
  • BetVictor’s Match Trebles section has ‘John Isner – To Win 3-0, Most Aces, Least Double Faults’ @ 12/1

There are dozens of Specials and combinations available with various bookies in their ‘pick your own’ bets markets. Those are the ones that stand out for me, and I’m having a speculative bet on the biggest price…

Match Specials:

BET: ‘Isner to Win 3-0 and 3 Tiebreaks in the Match’ @ 33/1
BOOKIES: 33/1 (34.00) Ladbrokes, Coral
Latest odds here

In summary…

Here are today’s Bets of the Day (see above for full details):

  • John Isner to beat Milos Raonic @ 6/5
  • Match Special– ‘Isner to Win 3-0 and 3 Tiebreaks in the Match’ @ 33/1

I’ll be back on Thursday morning with your Bets of the Day for Women’s Semi Finals day.

Enjoy the tennis…

Best wishes,

Oliver Upstone

Tom Wilson

Ones to Watch