Tennis Betting Advice - July 2018
Wimbledon: Bets of the Day – Women’s Semi Finals…
Thursday 12th July 2018
In your Ones to Watch email today:
Wimbledon – Bets of the Day
Good morning and welcome to Day 10 of your Wimbledon 2018 coverage…
Play starts on Centre Court at 1pm.
The football may have gone to Extra Time last night, but there were some even more epic matches on court at the All England Club yesterday evening…
Two absolute Wimbledon classics on Men’s Quarter Finals day, and after a long wait we finally have something to cheer about at this tournament.
Our 18/1 shot Juan Martin Del Potro almost took out Rafael Nadal, leading two sets to one, but Rafa dug in and eventually prevailed in a 7-5, 6-7, 4-6, 6-4, 6-4 marathon that lasted a bruising four hours and 48 minutes.
The embrace on Del Potro’s side of the net after match point will go down as one of those iconic Wimbledon images – the big Argentinean face down on the scorched turf as Rafa rounded the net posts to console him.
Del Potro loses nothing in defeat. Our underdog did himself proud. He’ll be back and I reckon Juan Martin still has more big Grand Slam runs left in him, for sure.
That match was on Centre Court. Over on Court One, where reigning champion Roger Federer was playing for the first time since 2015, another four-hour+ match also took place…
50/1 Anderson now 7/1…
On this occasion our outsider came through and delivered one of the biggest upsets of the year. Kevin Anderson – our 50/1 pre-tournament One to Watch – came from two sets down to beat Federer, 2-6, 6-7, 7-5, 6-4, 13-11.
That’s a fantastic win for Anderson, and a prime example of the ‘anyone can beat anyone’ rule that we have to keep in mind when keeping the faith with our big-price outsider picks.
The 6’8” South African was 9/1 to win the match. Now he’s just 7/1 to win the tournament.
Big Kevin will go on to face Big John in the Semi Finals, with the 6’10” John Isner winning the battle of the servers with victory over Milos Raonic. The match saw a total of 56 Aces, and Isner won a dominant 90% of points on his First Serve.
While our more speculative 33/1 pick for Isner to win 3-0 with 3 Tiebreaks didn’t come in, the American gave us a payout as the 6/5 (2.20) match underdog in a 6-7, 7-6, 6-4, 6-3 win.
Tomorrow’s Semi Final between Anderson v Isner is a match made up of two men who started the tournament priced as 50/1 and 100/1 outsiders respectively. Neither player had been as far as a Wimbledon Quarter Final before this year.
Women’s Semi Finals…
It’s Women’s Semi Finals day today with two intriguing matches on Centre Court, one after another. Including a first-time semi-finalist taking on one of the greatest players of all time – and a former Wimbledon runner-up taking on one of the new young stars of the game…
Angelique Kerber v Jelena Ostapenko
Rankings: Kerber #10, Ostapenko #12
Match odds: Kerber 8/13 (1.62), Ostapenko 7/5 (2.40)
Kerber is the bookies’ favourite here with the 2016 Wimbledon runner-up looking to reach the Final for the second time in three years.
Ostapenko is the underdog today but they don’t come more dangerous than this 21-year-old. The Latvian swings from the hip and has been electric so far, with five straight 2-0 wins to reach her first Wimbledon Semi Final – the only player left in the tournament yet to lose a set. Ostapenko already has Grand Slam winning experience after blasting her way to the French Open title last year.
This should be an absorbing match as the 30-year-old left-hander is famed for getting balls back from all over the court and can turn defence into attack. The young gun Ostapenko will have the simple but brave game-plan of going for winners time after time. Kerber has never played her before so in that respect this match poses a new problem for the experienced German.
Since winning the WTA Sydney title at the start of the year, Kerber has been very consistent but has also faltered several times near the final hurdle in tournaments. She missed out in the Semi Final at Eastbourne pre-Wimbledon after having match point, and the same happened at the Australian Open in January. In-between, Kerber has gone out in Quarter Finals at big events in Indian Wells, Miami and Rome, as well as a Semi Final in Dubai. Kerber also wobbled several times when in front v Daria Kasatkina in the Quarter Final this week, needing seven match points to get over the line.
Ostapenko is a hot-streak player and when she’s on one – it pays to follow her. It’s all or nothing with this exciting youngster and right now I wouldn’t want to back against her.
BET: Ostapenko to beat Kerber @ 7/5
BOOKIES: 7/5 (2.40) BetVictor, Betway, NetBet, 10Bet, 11/8 (2.38) Bet365, SunBets, Boylesports
Latest odds here
Julia Goerges v Serena Williams
Rankings: Goerges #13, Williams #181
Head-to-Head: Williams 3-0
Match odds: Goerges 3/1 (4.00), Williams 2/7 (1.29)
Goerges is in her first ever Semi Final and the danger for the underdog here is that the occasion might get to her…
Serena knows her way around a big match. And as she showed against another big-hitting opponent in unchartered waters in Camila Giorgi in the Quarter Finals – coming from a set down to win 2-1 – it will take a monumental sustained effort to beat Williams.
The best bet on the underdog here is in the Most Aces market, where Goerges has a very good chance of beating Serena…
Goerges has served more Aces than any other woman in the tournament, with 44 to Serena’s 39. Serena has beaten the German two sets to nil in all three of their previous meetings but in the last two Goerges has been a convincing winner on the Aces count, including an 11-3 score at the French Open last month.
BET: Most Aces – Goerges @ 153/100
BOOKIES: 153/100 (2.53) Marathonbet, 11/10 (2.10) Skybet
Latest odds here
Here are today’s Bets of the Day (see above for full details):
I’ll be back on Friday morning with your Bets of the Day for Men’s Semi Finals day.
Enjoy the tennis…