Tennis Betting Advice - July 2018

Wimbledon: Bets of the Day – Men’s Semi Finals…

Friday 13th July 2018

In your Ones to Watch email today:

  • Wimbledon Day 11 – play starts 1pm…
  • Big day for Big Kev…
  • Men’s Semi Finals…

Wimbledon – Bets of the Day

Good morning and welcome to Day 11 of your Wimbledon 2018 coverage…

Play starts on Centre Court at 1pm.

A 2016 repeat…

After all the top-10-seeds carnage in the Women’s draw, Saturday’s Final will be played out by two well-known names after all.

Serena Williams and Angelique Kerber will face off for the title, in a repeat of the 2016 Final.

Kerber proved too consistent and persistent for Jelena Ostapenko in yesterday’s Semi Final, taking down match pick Ostapenko 6-3, 6-3 with the Latvian far from her best.

Williams brushed aside the challenge of Julia Goerges and after an evenly-matched start on the Aces front, Serena pushed on in the second set with the final tally 5-3. We were on the underdog there at a decent price but didn’t get the result we were looking for.

Big day for Big Kev…

Talking of underdogs, our pre-tournament 50/1 One to Watch pick Kevin Anderson has turned out to be our one big shining light in this tournament.

After stunning Roger Federer in the Quarter Finals, Anderson takes on John Isner today with a place in a first Wimbledon Final the reward for the winner.

If you’re on Anderson – and from the emails I’ve received it looks like lots of you are – then you might want to consider a saver bet or hedge bet on Isner today…

If you’re on at 50/1 Each Way then you’re looking at a 26-pt return from the place part of your bet if Anderson wins today to reach the Final.

The bookies have this Semi Final very closely matched with both men around 10/11 (1.91) each to win.

If, for example, we say you have 1 point Each Way staked on Anderson and want to recoup your original stake, a 2.5 pt bet on Isner to beat him today would cover you for that.
Or if you wanted instead to guarantee a profit, a bigger 10-pt bet or so on Isner would put you in a position to do that.

I’ll leave it up to you.

As I say, the bookies have this very close. Two big servers – Isner is No.1 in the tournament for Most Aces, and Anderson is 3rd – and we’re sure to see a couple of Tiebreak (7-6) sets swinging the match one way or another. The career match head-to-head is 8-3 to Isner, but they haven’t met since 2015 and as I said in our pre-tournament Ones to Watch report, Anderson has improved greatly in the last couple of years and is playing his best tennis late on in his career.

Men’s Semi Finals…

So, it’s Men’s Semi Finals day today and we have two very different but equally fascinating matches to look forward to on Centre Court.

Anderson v Isner is a battle of the big servers, while Novak Djokovic v Rafael Nadal is the blockbuster headline match with two of the greatest champions of all time fighting it out for another shot at a Wimbledon title…

Kevin Anderson v John Isner

Rankings: Anderson #8, Isner #10
Head-to-Head: Isner 8-3

Match odds: Anderson 10/11 (1.91), Isner 10/11 (1.91)

As mentioned above the bookies can’t split these two, and a long match is anticipated, dominated by serve. Anderson stands 6’8” tall and Isner is 6’10”…

The Total Games line is set high at Over 47.5 Games, while the few firms brave enough to price up a Total Aces market (Paddy Power, 888 Sport) are asking for Over 65 Aces.

While Aces and service games held will inevitably lead to narrow set score-lines (eg. 7-6), this match could really be decided by who does best with the ball in play. As Anderson alluded to in his comments – “I feel confident in baseline exchanges quite a lot with John” – Kevin be could be the one with the edge there. I certainly have Anderson down as the better mover of the two and fitness-wise I’d put him ahead of the American, too.

Separate to the Outright Winner/ Each Way situation outlined above, the Double Faults market provides the match opportunity for us here…

Anderson is in the top 20 in the tournament for Most Double Faults, with 19 from his 5 matches. Isner has served 15 Double Faults.

Isner is ranked No.1 at Wimbledon 2018 for First Serves In, averaging an impressive 76%. The more First Serves you’re getting in, the less chance of risking a Double Fault with a Second Serve…

Anderson has got the Most Double Faults in each of their last 4 meetings and he’s the pick in that department today.

Most Double Faults:

BET: Most Double Faults – Anderson @ 11/10
BOOKIES: 11/10 (2.10) Skybet, 19/20 (1.95) 888 Sport, Unibet, 10/11 (1.91) NetBet, 10Bet, 17/20 (1.85) 188Bet, 8/11 (1.73) Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook
Latest odds here

  • Note: 888 Sport, Unibet, NetBet and 10Bet call this bet the -0.5 Double Faults Handicap

Novak Djokovic v Rafael Nadal

Rankings: Djokovic #21, Nadal #1
Head-to-Head: Djokovic 26-25

Match odds: Djokovic 10/11 (1.91), Nadal 10/11 (1.91)

Another 50-50 one here with the Match Winner market having both men at 10/11 each to win…

You won’t see many career head-to-heads more stacked up than that either, with Djokovic just one ahead out of 51 previous meetings. Nadal has won the last 2 although they were both on clay which is his best surface. They haven’t met on grass since the 2011 Wimbledon Final when Novak prevailed by three sets to one.

In Grand Slams, 8 of their last 10 meetings have had 4+ Sets, with the only straight-sets 3-0 wins coming for Rafa on the clay at Roland Garros.

Today’s Total Games line of Over 40.5 Games would need 4+ Sets. And in the Total Sets market the Over 3.5 Sets option is just 2/5 (1.40). Nadal had a 5-Set thriller against Juan Martin Del Potro in the last round and the bookies make it just 2/1 that we see another match go the distance to 5 Sets here.

Again the Double Faults prices catch the eye…

These are two of the best returners of all time so both men will know the importance of getting their serves working for them. Djokovic is ahead of Nadal for First Serves In (78% v 68%), and Novak has hit just 8 Double Faults in the tournament compared to 14 for Rafa.

The bookies make Djokovic the favourite for the Most Double Faults today, but Djokovic has been serving the better of the two in the tournament so far and Nadal is the value here.

Most Double Faults:

BET: Most Double Faults – Nadal @ 6/4
BOOKIES: 6/4 (2.50) Betway, 188Bet, 11/8 (2.38) Skybet
Latest odds here

  • Note: Double Faults markets also available with 888 Sport, Unibet, NetBet and 10Bet

In summary…

Here are today’s Bets of the Day (see above for full details):

  • Anderson v Isner – Most Double Faults – Anderson @ 11/10
  • Djokovic v Nadal – Most Double Faults – Nadal @ 6/4

I’ll be back on Saturday morning with your Bets of the Day for the Women’s Final.

Enjoy the tennis…

Best wishes,

Oliver Upstone

Tom Wilson

Ones to Watch