Tennis Betting Advice - July 2018
Wimbledon: Bets of the Day – 5/1 for Kerber v Williams…
Saturday 14th July 2018
In your Ones to Watch email today:
Wimbledon – Bets of the Day
Good morning and welcome to Day 12 of your Wimbledon 2018 coverage…
Play starts on Centre Court at 1pm.
One for the history books yesterday with Kevin Anderson and John Isner playing out the longest Semi Final in Wimbledon history – and the second-longest match the tournament has ever seen.
While sitting through over six and a half hours of John Inverdale’s commentary was a somewhat arduous task, John McEnroe kept things fresh – and the tennis on Centre Court was brilliant throughout…
What could have been written off as a serve-fest was in fact a fully engrossing and exciting five-set classic. Two men in their thirties battling to the end, knowing this could well be their one and only chance to reach a Wimbledon Final.
Kevin Anderson deserved it for me. Having beaten Roger Federer in five sets in the Quarter Final, coming from 0-2 down and saving a match point, the big South African showed an immense level of fitness and conditioning – and mountains of mental strength and belief – to come from 1-2 down v Isner to turn the match around and eventually prevail the 3-2 winner.
The final score was 7-6, 6-7, 6-7, 6-4, 26-24 – which kind of makes a mockery of the Over 47.5 Total Games line that I mentioned yesterday (the epic final set on its own beat that line).
There were a whopping 102 Aces in the match. Again, as I mentioned in yesterday’s preview, the bookies were betting Over 65.
There were however only 10 Double Faults in this near-seven-hour classic; it was a high quality match. And as has been the frustrating theme with my match picks this tournament, the one I went for missed the mark. Isner got the Most Double Faults, 6-4, whereas my research had taken me to Anderson.
The big result of the day though for us was of course the fact that Big Kevin got through to the Final. If you’re on our 50/1 pre-tournament One to Watch pick Each Way then you’re now guaranteed a substantial place payout from Anderson reaching the Final.
The fact that we don’t yet know who Anderson will play on Sunday shows just what a crazy day it was at Wimbledon yesterday. Novak Djokovic and Rafael Nadal had to wait until after Anderson and Isner had punched each other out before finally getting on Centre Court for their Semi Final, with the roof closed and the lights on…
It was a bit surreal to have Wimbledon lit up at night with the sound of shots echoing around the enclosed stadium, and an SW19 curfew meant play had to be suspended at 11pm.
Djokovic leads 2-1 and they return to finish the match at 1pm today. That’s a nice little bonus for ticket holders arriving to watch the big match of the day from 2pm…
Angelique Kerber v Serena Williams
Rankings: Kerber #10, Williams #181
Head-to-Head: Williams 6-2
Match odds: Kerber 7/4 (2.75), Williams 1/2 (1.50)
The last three meetings between these two have all come in Finals…
In 2016, Serena beat Kerber to win Wimbledon. Earlier that same season, Kerber had beaten Serena to claim the Australian Open title. Before that, Williams had beaten the German for the WTA Stanford title in 2014.
Overall the career head-to-head is 6-2 to the American superstar, with their only previous grass-court meeting being that Wimbledon Final two years ago.
Since then Serena has had a baby, been off the tour and then returned. This is by far her best tournament performance since coming back. Kerber went on to win the US Open in 2016 and hit No.1 in the world at the end of that year, before dropping off badly in 2017 – then firing things up again this season…
Angie has got to the Aussie Open Semi Final and French Open Quarter Final this season, and this fortnight she’s gone better still with a return to a Grand Slam Final.
Serena is going for an 8th Wimbledon Singles trophy today. She needs little introduction and her experience at this level is immense.
However, I stick by what I said at the start of the tournament and I still don’t think Serena is playing or moving as well as many people are saying…
Kerber is a supreme athlete and will run and run, she has a fierce left-handed weapon and if she plays smart today then she’ll attempt to draw Serena into long rallies from side to side and up and down the court. Easier said than done of course against a player as powerful as Serena, but I like the focus Kerber is playing with this fortnight and I want to be with the underdog today.
This is a fourth Grand Slam Final for the 30-year-old Kerber and that gives her a level of experience and confidence lacking from many opponents who attempt to take out Serena on the big stage.
It won’t be easy though and I want to take the best price possible on the upset win. For me that’s the 2-1 Set Betting score for Kerber, where I’m pleasantly surprised to see odds of around 5/1 available.
BET: Kerber to win 2-1 @ 5/1
BOOKIES: 5/1 (6.00) 888 Sport, Unibet, BetStars, 49/10 (5.90) Marathonbet, 19/4 (5.75) Sportingbet, Bwin, 9/2 (5.50) general
Latest odds here
I’ll be back on Sunday morning with your Bets of the Day for the Men’s Final.
Enjoy the tennis…