Tennis Betting Advice - July 2018
Wimbledon: Men’s Final today – Anderson v Djokovic…
Sunday 15th July 2018
In your Ones to Watch email today:
Wimbledon – Bets of the Day
Good morning and welcome to Day 13 of your Wimbledon 2018 coverage…
Play starts on Centre Court at 2pm.
Kerber crushes Serena…
Angelique Kerber executed her game-plan perfectly in the Women’s Final yesterday, rarely troubled in a 6-3, 6-3 victory over Serena Williams.
In fact, if anything Kerber played a bit too well. I’d talked up her chances yesterday and how she could beat Serena by moving her around the court and playing out long rallies. However rather than go for the match win at 7/4 (2.75), I went for the bigger 5/1 (6.00) about a 2-1 win for the German. So like most of the Centre Court crowd, I ended up cheering for the match to go on longer than it did – to no avail.
Kevin Anderson v Novak Djokovic
Rankings: Anderson #8, Djokovic #21
Head-to-Head: Djokovic 5-1
Match odds: Anderson 9/2 (5.50), Djokovic 1/5 (1.20)
If you’re on Anderson at 50/1 Each Way from our pre-tournament Ones to Watch report then you already have a 25/1 paying coming your way courtesy of the place part of your bet, whatever happens this afternoon.
You’ll also have gigantic odds of 50/1 Outright on your side for Anderson win, which is pretty much 10 times his on-the-day price in the Match Winner market.
Two phrases are in my mind this morning…
1) Form is temporary, class is permanent…
If you only dealt in 2018 form then you’d be forgiven for thinking Kevin Anderson should be the favourite to win today.
Anderson is the higher ranked player. He knocked out Roger Federer, the reigning champion and man they call the GOAT (Greatest Of All Time), in the Quarter Finals.
Anderson has reached three ATP Finals this season, and after the US Open last summer, he has now reached the Final in two of the last four Grand Slams.
Novak Djokovic on the other hand is ranked outside the Top 20, hasn’t won a tournament since before Wimbledon last year and has made just one Final since – and he lost that. This is his first Grand Slam Final since he was beaten to the US Open title by Stan Wawrinka in 2016.
However, of course, what the 2018 formbook doesn’t tell you is that Djokovic is a former World No.1, was out of the game injured but is now back, and is a 12-time Grand Slam winner, winning all four at least once – including three Wimbledon titles.
2) The power of positive thinking…
Much is being made of Anderson’s near-seven-hour contest in the Semi Finals – an epic match that ended with the bizarre score of 26-24 in the fifth set. People are saying Kevin will be done in. His legs will be gone. He’ll have nothing left in the tank. He’s a walking shell of a man who can barely drag his aching limbs onto court…
However, we haven’t found our big Ones to Watch winners over the years by being negative Nellies. Murray Walker knows. As the legendary Formula One commentator would declare before a race, as the engines roared and dinned on the starting grid – ‘Anything can happen – and it usually does!’
Anderson has beaten Federer, from two sets down. He saved a match point. He played in the longest Semi Final that Wimbledon has ever seen – and won. He was two sets to one down in that match, too.
Kevin fist-pumps pretty much every point that he wins. He constantly motivates and encourages himself with controlled yet forceful, neck-nodding chants of ‘Come On’ before and after almost every point, win or lose. Listen out on court today. You’ll hear him.
Yes, the head-to-head is overwhelmingly in Djokovic’s favour, five wins to one. You don’t need me to tell you that the household name and multiple champion should win this match.
But let’s stick with the positives…
Djokovic also had a five-set Semi Final. And he had to come back yesterday lunchtime to play the last two sets against Rafael Nadal – with the decider going all the way to 10-8. Usually, after winning your semi, you have a day off before the Final. Not so for Djokovic this weekend.
The last time these two played each other, it was here at Wimbledon in 2015, and Anderson won the first two sets. Djokovic had to come from two-nil down, and eventually won 3-2. That was no easy win. No whitewash. And since then Anderson has become a better player, reaching a career-best ranking and breaking into the Top 10.
Two more reasons why the big 50/1 win today is more than just a dream…
Since coming back from a prolonged injury layoff, Novak has wobbled at big points in big matches. Nerves, loss of concentration, rustiness – who knows. At Queen’s last month he had match point for a 2-0 win v Marin Cilic in the Final, but went on to lose.
And Djokovic likes to be loved. He doesn’t like it when the crowd are cheering for the other player. He doesn’t like it when he thinks his own good play and winning shots are not being duly appreciated by the spectators.
The Centre Court crowd love a great champion – but they also love an underdog. They won’t want to see a 3-0 drubbing this afternoon. They will get behind Anderson if he goes behind. And in the last two rounds, Anderson has come from behind to win. He won’t stop believing until the final ball is hit.
Reasons to be cheerful…
So there we have it. Plenty of reasons to be optimistic, to enjoy the Final on a sunny Sunday summer afternoon.
Wimbledon 2018 has not been a classic for me. My daily match picks haven’t been going in at all. But if you’re on Anderson at anything like 50/1 Each Way, then the tournament will end in a place payout. And if the 6’8” South African pulls out the biggest performance of his life today, it could yet be a very happy ending indeed.
That’s all from me today. I have no match picks. The bookies look to have the Most Aces market sewn up, with Anderson short odds-on.
The tournaments keep on coming…
I’ll be back tomorrow with a summary – and it’s straight into the next ATP & WTA tournaments. The tour is relentless. This is prime tennis season. There are no fewer than five events starting on Monday. See you then.
Enjoy the tennis…