Tennis Betting Advice - July 2019

Make it a win-win final in Bastad today…

Sunday 21st July 2019

In your Ones to Watch email today:

  • ATP Bastad…
  • 20/1 pick now 11/10…
  • Guarantee a profit…

A good run at a nice price has put us in a great position to guarantee a profit this week.

Our Ones to Watch pick for the ATP Bastad event in Sweden, Juan Ignacio Londero is through to the final.

Backed at 20/1 or 18 Each Way at the start of the tournament, Londero is now just 11/10 (2.10) to win what would be his second ATP title of the season this Sunday afternoon.

We have price on our side and points to play with. Now we need to make one last move in order to ensure that we end the week in profit.

It should be a good final. Opponent Nicolas Jarry is one of the five men on our pre-season Ones to Watch in 2019 list. Like Londero, Jarry went off at 18/1 in Bastad this week – although the Chilean was in the tougher side of the draw than our man.

This is a close match-up and could produce an engrossing final between two talented clay court players…

Jarry has been the form player so far this week, reaching the final without dropping a set.

Londero has had two 2-0 wins and two 2-1 victories en-route to the championship match. Our Argentinean pick beat Albert Ramos-Vinolas in Saturday’s semi final, 6-3, 6-4.

Jarry is 23 years old and just ahead in the rankings, at No.64 in the world. Londero is 25 years old and at No.71 in the standings.

The head-to-head is 2-1 to Jarry. But Londero won their most recent meeting and the only one played at full ATP Tour level. That win came on the way to winning the ATP Cordoba title in February (in a tournament where we’d actually backed Jarry at 18/1).

Londero is one from one in ATP finals. That could give him a confidence edge here. Jarry is played two lost two in finals. Although to be fair in both of his previous championship matches, Jarry was playing a higher-ranked opponent and was the underdog on both occasions – losing 2-1 in tight three-setters, and even having match points in one of them. The Chilean may feel it’s third time lucky here.

Guarantee a profit…

All told, the sensible move is to ensure a profit today by backing Jarry to beat Londero at 8/11 (1.73).

If you’ve followed this week’s advice to the letter then you’ll have staked a total of 10 points so far, and those are the figures I’m working to here.

With Londero in the book as an 18/1+ Each Way bet in the Outright Winner market, we have a 9/1+ place payout safely coming our way. That returns this week’s full 10-pt stake to make things break-even.

The Win Only part of our Londero bet means we have 18/1 (or 20/1) on him to beat Jarry today.

To even things up, staking 9 pts on Jarry @ 8/11 would put us in this overall winning position for the week:

  • If Jarry wins = 6.5 pts profit
  • If Londero wins = 10 pts profit

(The Londero profit will be a little more if you’re on at 20/1.)

Today’s Ones to Watch pick:

HEDGE BET – only place this bet if you backed Londero & this week’s other bets as previously advised

Match scheduled for 1pm+ today.

Match Winner:

STAKE: 9 pts
BET: Nicolas Jarry to beat Juan Ignacio Londero @ 8/11
BOOKIES: 8/11 (1.73) Bet365, William Hill, BetVictor, Betway, Boylesports, NetBet, 10Bet

Latest odds here

There are five more tournaments taking place on the clay next week, with play starting from Monday morning. I’ll be back before then with our first picks.

Enjoy the tennis…

Best wishes,

Oliver Upstone

Tom Wilson

Ones to Watch