Tennis Betting Advice - July 2019

Ones to Watch this week – two 20/1 picks…

Monday 15th July 2019

In your Ones to Watch email today:

  • Small margins…
  • Five tournaments…
  • This week’s picks at 20/1…

Small margins…

Sunday was a great day of sport. And small margins of victory were very much the order of the day…

In the cricket, the World Cup was settled by a ‘super over’ after a draw. In the golf, the Scottish Open went to a playoff. In the football, one African Cup of Nations semi final was decided in Extra Time, and the other by the very last kick of the game.

And of course, in the tennis, the Wimbledon Men’s final went to the wire…

Novak Djokovic beat Roger Federer in the longest Wimbledon Singles final ever, saving two match points and eventually winning 7-6, 1-6, 7-6, 4-6, 13-12 (7-3).

The match was decided by the new ‘Tiebreak at 12-12 in the 5th Set’ rule.

No crystal ball (see also: close but no cigar)…

Having a crystal ball would come in handy in many situations. Betting would be one of them…

Having almost eerily ‘predicted’ that the Centre Court crowd might witness another 4 hours and 57 minutes match on Sunday (after the Men’s Doubles Final took that exact same amount of time on Saturday), any Mystic Meg magic puffed away when it came to the 1st Set Tiebreak.

We were on Federer to win the 1st Set on a Tiebreak. Roger had a 5-3 lead in the ‘breaker but missed a forehand that would have given him three set-point chances to land our 7/1 pick. Close but no cigar.

Our Match Winner double ensured we left SW19 with a final-day winner though, with Hsieh & Strycova winning the Women’s Doubles Final and Dodig & Chan triumphing in the Mixed Doubles Final. Both pairings won in straight sets, 2-0.

No rest for the wicked…

As I always say at the end of a Grand Slam fortnight – there is no rest for the wicked…

The summer of tennis continues right on this week with no fewer than five tournaments taking place on the ATP & WTA Tours.

Good job then that I absolutely love the tennis. No complaints here. Let’s get straight down to business.

Play starts from 10am on Monday…

There are three men’s events, ATP Newport, USA which is the final grass court tournament of the season – along with ATP Umag, Croatia and ATP Bastad, Sweden which are both on clay.

The women are on clay at WTA Lausanne in Switzerland and WTA Bucharest in Romania.

Since 2015, the week-after-Wimbledon tournaments have produced winners at some huge prices including 33/1, 40/1 and 50/1 (twice), along with an 80/1 runner-up at Newport last year.

All five of this week’s events are the lowest grade of the main tours – WTA ‘International’ and ATP ‘250.’ And with this also being the week after a Major, we won’t see many of the big names back in action right away. All of which leaves the door open for a few unheralded players to get their hands on some trophies…

This week’s picks at 20/1…

Starting in Sweden and the top half of the ATP Bastad draw looks by far the toughest, headed up by Christian Garin who is the favourite in the Outright Winner betting at 6/1 in general. Along with clay court pro and experienced old hand Pablo Cuevas (10/1), our One to Watch in 2019 Nicolas Jarry (18/1) and promising wildcard Alejandro Davidovich Fokina (33/1), to name but four.

The bottom half has veterans Richard Gasquet (10/1) and Fernando Verdasco (7/1). Verdasco would appear the most dangerous of the two, making the semi final or final here on five of his last six visits. The Spaniard has never won the Bastad title though, and odds of 7/1 don’t offer much incentive to back him Each Way (at half the odds for reaching the final).

We’ll look to an upcoming clay court player instead, with Juan Ignacio Londero catching the eye as an outside chance at 20/1. The 25-year-old has got 322 career match wins on clay, compared to a total of just 39 combined wins on other surfaces. The Argentinean is having a breakout year, winning a first ATP title and reaching a top ranking of No.58.

Next up we’re off to Rhode Island, where I have no qualms about backing 40-year-old Ivo Karlovic as a 20/1 shot…

ATP Newport has been dominated by big servers over the years, and they don’t come any bigger than the 6’11” Ace machine from Croatia. Karlovic is a former champion on the grass here, reaching the final three years running between 2014 and 2016.

With retirement looming somewhere in the not-too-distant future, Ivo is choosing his tournaments with purpose from now on in – and I get the impression that he reckons he has at least one more trophy in him before he hangs up his racket.

Karlovic is in the bottom half of the draw, avoiding the two American favourites until the final – three-time Newport winner John Isner (7/2) and reigning champ Steve Johnson (13/2). At 20/1, Karlo’ stands out as an Each Way bet.

Those two will do for starters. I’ve got a few players in my notes & thinking for this week’s women’s events, too – but want to see how things pan out over the first day or two in Lausanne and Bucharest.

I’ll be back throughout the week more picks & advice.

Today’s Ones to Watch picks:

Outright Winner:

ATP Bastad – Swedish Open

BET: Juan Ignacio Londero @ 20/1 Each Way
BOOKIES: 20/1 (21.00) Boylesports, 18/1 (19.00) Bet365, Skybet, William Hill, Ladbrokes, Coral, NetBet, 10Bet

Latest odds here

ATP Newport – US Hall of Fame

BET: Ivo Karlovic @ 20/1 Each Way
BOOKIES: 20/1 (21.00) Paddy Power, Betfair Sportbook, 14/1 (15.00) Ladbrokes, Coral

Latest odds here

  • Each Way terms: 1/2 odds 1-2 places


It’s been my absolute pleasure to write to you every day during Wimbledon. I’d love to know how you got on and how you found the service…

I’ll be going daily again for the US Open next month, so all feedback is appreciated:

Message me here

Enjoy the tennis…

Best wishes,

Oliver Upstone

Tom Wilson

Ones to Watch