Tennis Betting Advice - July 2019
This week’s picks – including two 22/1 shots…
Monday 22nd July 2019
In your Ones to Watch email today:
7 out of 8…
So far this season we’ve got eight Each Way picks into finals, and seven of them have lost in the final. If nothing else, the law of averages would suggest we’re due a trophy winner or two.
Each Way payouts are not to be sniffed at. Indeed, they are often a big part of our Outright Winner plan, where we deliberately target an Each Way price in one half of a tournament draw-sheet. But it would be nice to land a ‘big one’ again soon.
Last week we made a profit that covered the Wimbledon losses. Our 20/1 or 18/1 shot Juan Ignacio Londero lost in the final, for a half-the-odds Each Way payout. As anticipated, that ATP Bastad final was a close one. Nicolas Jarry won 7-6, 6-4 to land his first ever ATP title.
Ones to Watch in Hamburg, Jurmala and Atlanta…
The summer of tennis continues with five more tournaments this week. Four on clay, and one on hard courts as the build-up to the US Open kicks off with ATP Atlanta.
We’re starting our week with three Each Way picks in the Outright Winner markets…
ATP Hamburg has gone a bit mad in recent years. The last three instalments have seen 100/1, 66/1 and 33/1 winners – along with a couple of big-price runners-up at 33/1 and 50/1. It could pay then to look beyond big names like Dominic Thiem (12/5 favourite) and Alexander Zverev (11/2)…
The one for me is Benoit Paire at 20/1+. The Frenchman is rightly filed under ‘erratic.’ But this season he has shown form; notably winning two clay court titles already, ATP Marrakech as a 40/1 outsider and ATP Lyon as a 20/1 shot. Paire has won 75% of his clay matches this season, including 10 of his last 12. If he’s having one of his ‘good’ weeks, he’ll be dangerous in Hamburg.
ATP Atlanta sees last week’s Newport champion John Isner looking to maintain his North American dominance. The big server was clear favourite at Newport and goes off at short prices again, at 11/4 (3.75) to win Atlanta for what would be the third year running. He’s made the final six years running here, winning five. However, Newport was just his second tournament back after injury, so I won’t be taking short odds for Isner to double up this week. The opposite side of the Atlanta draw presents more opportunities…
One to watch is 21-year-old rising star, Ugo Humbert, who is available at 22/1 and 18/1. The 6’2” Frenchman is having a breakthrough season, up to a career high of No.48 in the world. He made the semi finals on grass at Newport last week (narrowly beaten 6-7, 7-6, 6-3 by Isner). Before that, Humbert was impressive in reaching the 4th Round at Wimbledon, where there was no shame in losing to World No.1 Novak Djokovic, who went on to lift the trophy.
Humbert has won 70% of hard court matches so far in his young career. Left-handed and with a strong serve, he could spring a few surprises in the weeks and months to come – including this week in Atlanta.
Last but not least, in the inaugural WTA Jurmala event in Latvia, teenager Anastasia Potapova could spoil the party for the home players. This new event on the women’s calendar looks hand-picked to give Latvian stars Anastasija Sevastova (5/1 favourite) and Jelena Ostapenko (14/1) a shot at making a crowd-pleasing ‘home’ final. But things don’t always turn out that way…
The 18-year-old Potapova is on our One to Watch in 2019 list. This time last year the young Russian made the WTA Moscow River Cup final as a 50/1 shot. WTA Jurmala replaces the River Cup in this week’s slot on the schedule.
Potapova has more wins on clay than any other surface so far (won 32 lost 17). And in 12 clay matches in 2019, she’s only twice been beaten in straight sets – with that brace of 2-0 defeats coming to noteworthy opponents. In Rome, Potapova lost to fellow teenager Amanda Anisimova, who then went on to reach the French Open semi finals. And at the French Open itself, Potapova ran into another in-form teenager, Marketa Vondrousova who went all the way to the final in Paris.
Odds of 14/1 make Potapova one to back this week, slightly off the radar compared to some of the more well-known names in the draw.
Today’s Ones to Watch picks:
ATP Hamburg – Hamburg European Open
BET: Benoit Paire @ 22/1 Each Way
BOOKIES: 22/1 (23.00) Skybet, 20/1 (21.00) Ladbrokes, Coral
ATP Atlanta – BB&T Atlanta Open
BET: Ugo Humbert @ 22/1 Each Way
BOOKIES: 22/1 (23.00) Paddy Power, Betfair Sportbook, 18/1 (19.00) Bet365, William Hill, NetBet, 10Bet
WTA Jurmala – Baltic Open
BET: Anastasia Potapova @ 14/1 Each Way
BOOKIES: 14/1 (15.00) Bet365, William Hill, NetBet, 10Bet
Play starts from 9am in Jurmala, 10.30am in Hamburg and 3pm in Atlanta. Bookies will temporarily take down their Outright Winner markets during the day’s play.
Enjoy the tennis…