Tennis Betting Advice - July 2019
Wimbledon: Women’s Semi Finals – back Serena & Simona…
Thursday 11th July 2019
Wimbledon - Bets of the Day
In your Ones to Watch email today:
Good morning and welcome to Day 11 of your Wimbledon 2019 daily service.
The Big Boy Challenge…
The big three were simply too good yesterday. The bookies’ short prices were confirmed with Novak Djokovic crushing David Goffin 3-0, Roger Federer coming from a set down to sweep past Kei Nishikori 3-1 and Rafael Nadal beating our long-shot pick Sam Querrey in straight sets.
Querrey kept in touch in the first set but just couldn’t stay with Rafa, going down 7-5, 6-2, 6-2. Backed at 200/1 on day one, Sam did well for us by getting to the quarter finals. Our saver bet on Nadal to beat him yesterday recovered our stakes on Querrey.
There’s one outsider through to the final four in the Men’s and that’s Roberto Bautista-Agut, who beat Guido Pella by three sets to one to reach the first Grand Slam semi final of his career…
We’ve got one raffle ticket left in the Outright Winner market, with Bautista-Agut backed at 45/1 or 40/1 Each Way yesterday. The Spaniard is now 33/1 in general.
Taking on the big boys is never easy but we’re betting with a bit of value in the odds, and that’s always the right side of the fence to be on…
Bautista-Agut is around 8/1 (9.00) to beat Djokovic in the semis. With Each Way terms of 1/3rd the odds for reaching the final, we effectively have 15/1 (16.00) or just over 13/1 (14.33) on the underdog winning that match – depending if you took 45/1 or 40/1 Each Way.
After that, we’d have 45/1 or 40/1 on Bautista-Agut to beat either Federer or Nadal in the final – and he’d never be that price on the day.
Women’s Semi Finals…
We’re not on the big one in the Women’s this time, but we were right to go hunting for outsiders at fancy prices. Two of this year’s four Wimbledon semi-finalists were available at triple-figure odds at the start of the tournament…
Here’s today’s line-up (day one Outright Winner top price in brackets):
Williams is a seven-time champion at SW19. Halep is looking to reach her first Wimbledon final. Strycova and Svitolina are both making their Grand Slam semi final debuts.
Straight sets picks…
Earlier this week we looked at the ‘straight sets’ trend in Women’s Grand Slam quarter finals. Since the start of 2018, 75% of those matches had been settled 2-0 in the Set Betting market. That stat is the same for 2-0 scores in semi finals, with nine out of 12 semis won in straight sets since the start of last year.
It’s not often I say this but today I was expecting to see shorter prices for the two favourites, Serena & Simona…
Today’s match prices are (decimal odds in brackets):
Williams has got better as the tournament has gone on. She has a 3-0 record for Strycova, and the Czech has never won a set off Serena.
Halep and Svitolina is closer on paper with the head-to-head level at 4-4. However, Svitolina has benefitted from facing a few under-par players on her route to the semis: she was losing to Margarita Gasparyan in Round 2 before her opponent retired injured, and in the 4th Round & quarter finals Elina came up against Petra Martic & Karolina Muchova respectively – who both showed up on the day at less than 100% fitness.
Halep is the steelier of the two in this semi final match-up and this is a big chance for the Romanian to make her mark at Wimbledon.
The slightly generous match prices transfer to the Set Betting markets, where to get the best payout from the favourites my pick is the Double on Williams & Halep to both win 2-0 at 23/10+ (3.30+) in general and a top price 27/10 (3.70).
Most Aces…
Yesterday we looked at the Double Faults stats. Today we’re taking an interest in the Aces…
For the season, Svitolina is averaging 1.4 Aces per match more than Halep. But that’s where the case for the Ukrainian ends. In three of their five career meetings, Halep has got the Most Aces.
So far at Wimbledon 2019, Svitolina has served a total of 9 Aces, with Halep hitting 8 (with same amount of sets played each). Halep has only been out-Aced by one opponent so far and that was Victoria Azarenka, which was to be expected.
Simona is one of the best returners on the tour and will get her racket to a lot of serves today. We’re sticking with the cream rises to the top theory here, by backing the more experienced Grand Slam player Halep to serve the Most Aces. Especially seeing as she is priced as the underdog to do so, at odds of 13/8 (2.63) and 31/20 (2.55).
Today’s bets:
Set Betting:
BET: DOUBLE – Williams to win 2-0 & Halep to win 2-0 @ 27/10
BOOKIES: 27/10 (3.70) 888 Sport, Unibet, 23/10+ (3.30+) in general
Elina Svitolina v Simona Halep:
BET: Most Aces – Halep @ 13/8
BOOKIES: 13/8 (2.63) Skybet, 31/20 (2.55) 888 Sport, Unibet. (Tie in this market, so bets lose if Aces score is a draw)
I’ll be back at 8am Friday with your Bets of the Day email for the Men’s Semi Finals.
P.S
If you have any questions or want to drop me a line, I’m on hand via email. You can message me at: tom.wilson@oxonpress.co.uk
Enjoy the tennis…
Best wishes,
Tom Wilson