Tennis Betting Advice - July 2019

Wimbledon: Day Five – The Life of Reilly at 19/2…

Friday 5th July 2019

Wimbledon - Bets of the Day

In your Ones to Watch email today:

  • Be a Wimbledon winner…
  • Land of the Giants – Opelka v Raonic…
  • Play starts 11am…

Good morning and welcome to Day Five of your Wimbledon 2019 daily service.

I’ll be in your inbox at 8am every morning. And if you have any questions or want to drop me a line during the tournament, I’m on hand via email.

You can message me at:

Be a Wimbledon winner…

First up today, a couple of Wimbledon competitions for you. Companies give out loads of stuff around big events like this. These comps are free to enter and it only takes a few seconds…

Win a pair of tickets to the Women’s Final:
Enter here >>

Win a stack of Official Wimbledon towels & tennis gear, plus a coaching lesson:
Enter here >>

Let me know if you win!

Thrills and spills…

Thursday was another day of shocks, with some big-odds turnarounds in the Match Winner markets.

In the Women’s, 8/1 (9.00) Lauren Davis knocked out reigning Wimbledon champion Angelique Kerber. And 10/3 (4.33) Magda Linette beat last month’s French Open semi-finalist Amanda Anisimova.

In the Men’s, 4/1 (5.00) Tennys Sandgren beat last month’s Queen’s finalist Gilles Simon. And 5/1 (6.00) Joao Sousa took out 2017 Wimbledon finalist Marin Cilic.

And unfortunately for our Rollover bet, 3/1 (4.00) Mikhail Kukushkin beat last year’s semi-finalist John Isner. That Rollover run lost, but since we introduced this feature in April, we’re up overall with one winning run from five attempts, for a 135% ROI.

Outright Winner picks in action today…

In the Outright Winner markets, we have four Each Way picks still standing…

  • 200/1 or 150/1 Sam Querrey – won 3-0 yesterday and into the 3rd Round
  • 33/1* Belinda Bencic – won 2-0 yesterday and into the 3rd Round

And playing in the 3rd Round today:

  • 75/1, 66/1 or 50/1 Petra Martic – 2/5 (1.40) favourite to beat Danielle Collins. This will be their first meeting
  • 35/1 or 33/1* Dayana Yastremska – 3/10 (1.30) favourite to beat Viktorija Golubic. The head-to-head is 2-0 to Yastremska, including a 6-4, 6-1 win on grass in Eastbourne Qualifying last month

(* = Bencic and Yastremska originally named as Ones to Watch at 100/1+, pre-tournament.)

We’ve got some big prices on our side there. And with big names like Kerber and Naomi Osaka already out of the Women’s – and three of the top seven Men’s seeds out – there’s plenty of scope for an outsider to go a long way at this tournament.

Land of the Giants – Opelka v Raonic…

Reilly Opelka v Milos Raonic is first up out on Court 12 this morning (11am), and this match could be a real slugfest…

This is USA v Canada, with the 6’11” Opelka v 6’5” Raonic. This will be the first ever meeting between these two Ace machines. Opelka hit 23 Aces in the last round, Raonic served 32.

We could see a long match here, and I’m favouring Opelka as the underdog. As a former Junior champion at SW19, many people in the game have been waiting to see Opelka in the Wimbledon main draw proper. He’s started well with a 3-0 win against a lower-ranked opponent, followed by a big win over Stan Wawrinka in Round 2…

Looking further back at the 2019 form, Opelka beat fellow giant server, 6’10” John Isner, 3-1 at the Australian Open in January. The score-line that day was a tight, serve-dominated 7-6, 7-6, 6-7, 7-6. In February, Reilly beat Isner again, indoors in New York.

That Isner form-line could prove a good indicator here. Raonic is played 6 lost 5 v Isner. And Raonic is won 5 lost 5 in his last 10 matches v fellow 6’4”+ players on the tour.

Opelka had a five-set match in the last round when coming from two sets to one down to beat three-time Major winner Wawrinka, 3-2. That could turn out to be a breakthrough result for the former Wimbledon Junior champ, who is yet to get past the 2nd Round of a Grand Slam at Senior level.

Despite that five-setter on Wednesday, I’m expecting the 21-year-old Opelka to be fresher all round than 28-year-old Raonic, who is enduring yet another in-and-out year on tour due to injuries (Raonic had a medical timeout in the last round).

Opelka is ranked No.63 in the world. Raonic is No.17. Opelka has never beaten a Top 20 player in straight sets, so it could pay to look to the Set Betting options, where the 3-2 score can give us a big price on a close-fought win for the underdog…

Raonic’s last four Grand Slam exits have all ended 3-1 or 3-2 (two each). And if you take out straight-sets defeats to big Big Four players (Federer, Nadal, Murray), that score-line trend stretches to six Grand Slams.

In the Match Winner market, Opelka is 2/1 (3.00) – 5/2 (3.50) to pull off the upset win. In the Set Betting market, Opelka to win 3-2 is available at a top price of 19/2 (10.50), and 7/1+ (8.00+) in general. My advice is to take those bigger odds.

Today’s bet:


Reilly Opelka v Milos Raonic

BET: Set Betting – Opelka to win 3-2 @ 19/2
BOOKIES: 19/2 (10.50) Marathonbet, 17/2 (9.50) 888 Sport, Unibet, 8/1 (9.00) Bet365, 7/1 (8.00) in general

Latest odds here

  • Staking: Unless otherwise stated, all our match bets are 1 point to win

I’ll be back tomorrow at 8am with your Bets of the Day for Saturday.

Enjoy the tennis…

Best wishes,

Oliver Upstone

Tom Wilson

Ones to Watch