Tennis Betting Advice - July 2019
Wimbledon: Day Four – two 33/1 picks for the book…
Thursday 4th July 2019
Wimbledon - Bets of the Day
In your Ones to Watch email today:
Good morning and welcome to Day Four of your Wimbledon 2019 daily service.
I’ll be in your inbox at 8am every morning. And if you have any questions or want to drop me a line during the tournament, I’m on hand via email.
You can message me at: firstname.lastname@example.org
Outright Winner picks – ups and downs…
In the Outright Winner markets our plan for Wimbledon is the same as at every other tournament: look to bet at the best value Each Way prices.
Backing at big odds inevitably means we will lose players in the early rounds and have more bad days than good days. But the good days make it all worthwhile and then some.
Yesterday our 25/1 pick Madison Keys was knocked out in straight sets by 10/3 (4.33) match underdog Polona Hercog.
But there was better news elsewhere in the bottom half of the draw, with Petra Martic – backed at 75/1, 66/1 or 50/1 (now 40/1 or 33/1) – winning through to the 3rd Round.
In the Men’s, we have Sam Querrey @ 200/1 or 150/1 – now 80/1 – and he plays in the 2nd Round today.
Sofia Kenin at 33/1 was the latest addition to our Women’s Outright book. As anticipated, Kenin’s match v Dayana Yastremska was a hard fought, ding-dong battle to the end. Yastremska saved multiple break points in the final set to come through 7-5, 4-6, 6-3…
Ones to Watch…
There were two main reasons behind backing Kenin yesterday. One was that this section of the draw looks open for an outsider to break through. And two, Kenin was playing our 100/1 pre-tournament One to Watch pick, Yastremska…
We move forward in that quarter of the draw with the 19-year-old Ukrainian now a 33/1 shot for the title. As with yesterday, the advice is to back Yastremska now, if you haven’t already. This is a young player that is serious about winning tennis matches – and tournaments.
The other players on our early Wimbledon Ones to Watch list were Tomas Berdych (100/1 – out), Magdalena Rybarikova (200/1 – out), Nick Kyrgios @ 30/1 and Belinda Bencic @ 120/1…
Those huge odds on Bencic went some time ago. She’s settled at 33/1 in the market. If you’re not on the Swiss player yet, I rate 33/1 as a completely fair price right now. She’s a 1/4 (1.25) favourite to beat Kaia Kanepi today.
Belinda is in the toughest section of the draw, with Top 10 players Ashleigh Barty, Angelique Kerber/ Serena Williams in her path to the semi finals, where Kiki Bertens or Petra Kvitova are the top-ranked players seeded to be waiting in the semis.
The positive there is that Bencic has the best record of any WTA player v Top 10 opponents in 2019 – with eight such victories to her name.
As ever, when it comes to Nick Kyrgios – things are a little more complicated…
Nick won his 1st Round match but it took him the full five sets. And in recent weeks his antics have been as unpredictable and controversial as ever, on and off the court. I’m a Kyrgios fan. His talent and ability are not in question. I’m rooting for him to get a grip on the mental side of things at some point.
He’s capable of playing proper, big-time tennis. The Aussie has shown that in glimpses throughout his career. Not least when beating Rafael Nadal as a 9/1 underdog here at Wimbledon five years ago. Since that first 2014 meeting, the Kyrgios-Nadal head-to-head is 4-3 to Nick. He’ll fancy his chances today, that’s for sure.
The bookies make Kyrgios 3/1 at best to beat Rafa. In the Outright Winner market, Nick is actually a bigger price than when I originally flagged him up in March – now 50/1 and 40/1 in general, with Boylesports going a standout 66/1 Each Way. It goes without saying that if Kyrgios does manage to knock out Nadal today, then those prices will go.
Two for the book…
I’m more than happy to back a scattering of players at big prices from across the field. In particular the Women’s Outright Winner market is where we should be making the most moves. The last 10 Women’s Grand Slams have seen nine different names on the trophies, with six of those being first time Major winners.
With that in mind, I’m putting up Yastremska and Bencic as Each Way picks at 33/1+ each.
If you’re already on… then you’re already on. But if not, back them today.
Wimbledon – Women’s
BET: Dayana Yastremska @ 35/1 Each Way
BOOKIES: 35/1 888 Sport, Unibet, 33/1 in general
BET: Belinda Bencic @ 33/1 Each Way
BOOKIES: 33/1 Skybet, Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook, Betfred
Staking: Unless otherwise stated, all our Outright Winner bets are 1 point Each Way (total stake 2 pts). All other Win Only bets are 1 point.
The Rollover – bet No.4…
Alongside our daily & tournament picks, we’ll be looked to profit from Wimbledon with our Rollover bet…
The aim is to roll a £10 stake over with match winner selections, cashing-out when we get to the £100 mark.
After £16.06 on bet No.3 won @ 2/7 (1.28) yesterday with Maria Sakkari beating Marie Bouzkova (6-4, 6-1), we have £20.64 going on Rollover bet No.4 today, with the match scheduled for around 12.30pm:
Isner broke his left foot in March but has worked hard behind the scenes to get himself back for Wimbledon – where he made the semi finals last year. The 6’10” American has hit more Aces than anyone in the last 12 months. His serve was in fine working order in the 1st Round, raining down 29 Aces en route to a 3-0 win. Today’s match sees the World No.12 against the World No.58, and the career head-to-head is 4-0 to Isner.
This is the second match on Court 3, scheduled for around 12.30pm.
Isner is 1/4 (1.25) with Bet365, William Hill, Betway.
I’ll be back tomorrow at 8am with your Bets of the Day for Friday.
Enjoy the tennis…