Tennis Betting Advice - July 2019

Wimbledon: Day One – 25/1 and 75/1 picks…

Monday 1st July 2019

Wimbledon - Bets of the Day

In your Ones to Watch email today:

  • Women’s Outright Winner picks…
  • The Rollover…
  • Play starts 11am…

Good morning and welcome to Day One of your Wimbledon 2019 daily service.

The sun is shining and we’re ready for action…

I’ll be in your inbox by 8am every morning for the next two weeks. And if you have any questions or want to drop me a line during the tournament, I’ll be on hand via email.

You can message me at:

Women’s Outright Winner…

These Grand Slam tournaments only come along four times a year. Wimbledon is the third one on the calendar – and the only Slam played on grass. Let’s get started…

In recent years there’s been an eye-catching trend for big-price finalists at Wimbledon. The last four summers have seen players providing Each Way payouts from starting odds of 80/1, 25/1, 28/1 and 50/1.

The Women’s Grand Slams are universally referred to as ‘wide open’ these days, and we’ll be focusing on the big prices in the women’s event in particular over the next two weeks…

Overall, nine of the last 11 Women’s Grand Slams have seen winners at double-figure odds or bigger (10/1+). There have been nine different trophy winners in the last 10 Slams. Six of those women were first-time Major winners.

We have all the encouragement we need to go after the outsiders and underdogs at SW19.

We’re kicking off Day One with our first Outright Winner picks for the Women’s. The opening day is the best time to get the biggest prices. We’ll also be looking to latch onto any in-form & value selections during the tournament, too.

The bottom half of the Women’s draw gets underway today and that’s where we’re focusing for our first big-price, Each Way selections…

Madison Keys @ 25/1

World No.16 Madison Keys is a tall player with a big serve – and arguably the biggest forehand on the women’s tour. That power game and shot-making ability has helped Keys rack up some strong runs at the Grand Slams

Aged 24, the American has had plenty of injury setbacks already in her career. That lack of court time compared to many of her opponents might be one reason behind Keys’ particular focus and success at Grand Slam level.

Look at this level of consistency, going back to the US Open 2017 where Madison was a 16/1 finalist for us:

French Open – Quarter Final
Australian Open – 4th Round
US Open – Semi Final
Wimbledon – 3rd Round
French Open – Semi Final
Australian Open – Quarter Final
US Open – Final (Runner-Up)

When it comes to the Slams, Keys means business. She’s a real contender.

Keys is also a former Wimbledon quarter-finalist (2015). And has been a semi-finalist at each of the other three Grand Slams.

On grass, Keys has tasted success in England before, winning WTA Birmingham and WTA Eastbourne. Her grass court career match win-loss record is 30-12, for a significant 71% match win rate on the turf.

Madison has the game and Grand Slam pedigree to get to more Grand Slam finals. Since 2017 she’s put herself right up there a few times. This summer could be the one she breaks through at Wimbledon.

Nerves have been her downfall before, but that’s something Keys addresses and acknowledges these days. And speaking in the build-up to this week, Madison has me convinced when she explains why she chose not to play any pre-Wimbledon grass tournaments last month – opting to arrive early at SW19 and get settled in the surroundings:

“I went home after losing in the French Open quarterfinals [to eventual champion Ashleigh Barty]. I needed to get some rest and rehab, and to feel 100 percent again. I skipped the pre-Wimbledon grass tournaments and got here about a week ago. Grass is a totally different surface, and I need as much practice as I can get on it in order to feel comfortable on it. And getting that extra time here really allows me to soak it all in, and almost be a fan for a minute, before competition gets underway. I love walking the grounds while it's empty and taking in the beauty of it all.”

Keys is in Quarter 4 of the draw, where World No.2 Naomi Osaka and No.7 Simona Halep are 5/1 joint-favourites to win the quarter. Keys in next in the betting at 7/1 at best. The American has a better grass court record than those two, and neither Osaka or Halep have a grass court title to their name as of yet.

In the Outright Winner market, odds of 25/1 are as big as you’ll get for Keys at any Grand Slam right now. She’s a serious contender, and available at a much more appealing price than the Top 10 players at the front of the betting.

Petra Martic @ 75/1

Aged 28, Petra Martic has reached a career high of No.24 in the world. This relatively late career spurt has come under coach Sandra Zaniewska, who is something of a rarity on the tour in that the coach is younger than the player. Martic & Zaniewska have proved a successful combination and the best could be still to come…

Martic is at a moment in her career when past form at events doesn’t matter. What matters right now is her momentum and confidence. Martic is playing the best tennis of her life this season. Her match win-loss record so far in 2019 is an impressive 21-9 (70%).

That includes a semi final at Birmingham on grass last month. Following on from a stellar clay season that included a run of semi final, final (won), quarter final and then a first Grand Slam quarter final at the French Open – where we were on Petra at 50/1.

Martic is in Quarter 3 of the draw (priced at 10/1), where last week’s Eastbourne winner Karolina Pliskova is the 6/4 (2.50) quarter favourite, and 6/1 second fav for the title…

Pliskova was in superb form last week but it’s worth pointing out that the big-serving Czech has never been further than the 4th Round at Wimbledon. And recent history says that playing a busy week directly before a Grand Slam is actually not the ideal criteria for the two-week, seven-match grind needed to take a Major title. Of the last 68 ‘week before’ finalists across the ATP & WTA tours, only two of them have managed to reach the final of the Grand Slam directly after (and those two were men).

Add in the fact that Martic has a 4-1 head-to-head record v Pliskova, including two wins on grass – one of which was at Wimbledon – as well as a victory over her at the French Open this year. And Martic wouldn’t fear her higher-ranked opponent if that potential quarter final match-up was to happen next week.

Odds of 75/1, 66/1 or 50/1 mark the in-form Croatian out as an outsider here – and exactly the kind of player we like to back at Ones to Watch.

Play starts today 11am. Keys and Martic are scheduled back to back on Court 17. You can watch live on the BBC ‘red button’ options and iPlayer.

Today’s bets:

Wimbledon – Women’s

Outright Winner:

BET: Madison Keys @ 25/1 Each Way
BOOKIES: 25/1 Bet365, William Hill, BetVictor, Betfred

BET: Petra Martic @ 75/1 Each Way
BOOKIES: 75/1 888 Sport, Unibet, 66/1 BetVictor, 50/1 in general

Latest odds here

  • Each Way terms: 1/2 odds 1-2 places

Staking: Unless otherwise stated, all our Outright Winner bets are 1 point Each Way (total stake 2 pts). All other Win Only bets are 1 point.

The Rollover – bet No.1…

Alongside our daily & tournament picks, we’ll be looked to profit from Wimbledon with our Rollover bet…

The aim is to roll a £10 stake over with match winner selections, cashing-out when we get to the £100 mark. I believe that’s an achievable target. We’re not reaching for the stars. We did it in May. And this feature adds some extra excitement to our tennis coverage.

  • The Rollover advice will always be to bet with bookies that void match bets for uncompleted matches. That way we’ll never lose our stake/ rollover pot due to a match retirement. Find out more about bookies’ rules here

We’re kicking off Day One of Wimbledon with bet No.1 in a new £10 Rollover:

Rollover bet:

  • Feliciano Lopez to beat Marcos Giron @ 2/7 (1.28)

Lopez had a dream week at Queen’s Club last month, winning the Singles as a 40/1 underdog and also lifting the Doubles trophy playing alongside Andy Murray. The 37-year-old Spaniard wisely took the week off after that, in order to be recovered and ready for Wimbledon. Lopez’s lefty serve wins him plenty of free points on grass, and his experience and confidence should prove too much for qualifier Giron today. Play starts 11am.

Lopez is 2/7 (1.28) with Bet365, William Hill, Boylesports, Betway.

Latest odds here

I’ll be back tomorrow at 8am with your Bets of the Day for Tuesday, including a first look at the Men’s Outright Winner market.

Enjoy the tennis…

Best wishes,

Oliver Upstone

Tom Wilson

Ones to Watch