Tennis Betting Advice - July 2019

Wimbledon: Day Three – 10/1 Treble and a 40/1 shot…

Wednesday 3rd July 2019

Wimbledon - Bets of the Day

In your Ones to Watch email today:

  • 10/1 for the shocks – and a 40/1 shot…
  • The Rollover…
  • Play starts 11am…

Good morning and welcome to Day Three of your Wimbledon 2019 daily service.

I’ll be in your inbox by 8am every morning. And if you have any questions or want to drop me a line during the tournament, I’m on hand via email.

You can message me at:

Sam serves it up…

One swallow doesn’t make a summer, but it was a good start for our Men’s outsider pick yesterday. Sam Querrey beat World No.4 Dominic Thiem 6-7, 7-6, 6-3, 6-0. After overcoming that 1st Round hurdle as the match underdog, the big-serving American is now a short odds-on favourite v Andrey Rublev in Round 2.

Sam served 22 Aces yesterday, with 90% of 1st Serves Won – and didn’t lose his serve in the entire match. That’s top level serving and if he can maintain that, Querrey can put a run together for us here.

We’ve already bagged a value price. Backed at a top price 200/1 or the widely available 150/1, Sam is now 66/1 in general. Betfred are 100/1, Bet365 and Skybet 80/1.

Shock watch…

After the big day of shocks on Monday, day two wasn’t quite as dramatic. But Roger Federer losing the first set of his match is almost headline news (!), although King Roger roared back to win the next three sets 6-1, 6-2, 6-2.

The two biggest upsets of the day were Ricardis Berankis, who beat the highly talented youngster Denis Shapovalov at 6/1 (7.00). The Lithuanian did it in straight sets, 3-0. And in the Women’s, Beatriz Haddad Maia beat 2017 Wimbledon champion Garbine Muguruza as a 12/5 (3.40) match underdog – also in straight sets, 2-0.

Here are three underdogs to look out for today…

  • IVO KARLOVIC may be 40 years of age but he still serves like an absolute beast. The 6’11” Croatian was one of just eight players (from 128 men) to serve 20+ Aces in the 1st Round. The man they call Doctor Ivo is the Evens+ (2.00+) underdog to beat Thomas Fabbiano today. The 5’8” Italian downed World No.6 Stefanos Tsitsipas on Monday. But that five-set win – the biggest of his career – might have taken it out of him a bit, and we could see a ‘bounce’ today
  • UGO HUMBERT came from 0-2 down to beat an ultimately injured Gael Monfils in Round 1. Age 21, the left-handed Frenchman is tipped by many as one to look out for in seasons to come. He’s homing in on the Top 50. Opponent Marcel Granollers has a decent grass record, but throughout the years the now 33-year-old Spaniard has never been one to rely on as a match favourite. Humbert is Evens+ (2.00+)
  • VERONIKA KUDERMETOVA is another player moving towards the Top 50. The 22-year-old Russian beat Caroline Wozniacki at the French Open this year, and can take advantage of the Dane’s poor Wimbledon record by claiming her scalp again here. Wozniacki has never made it to the quarter finals at SW19, making this her worst Grand Slam event. It’s around 13/8 (2.63) for the upset – a bigger price than the 11/10 (2.10) when Kudermetova won their last encounter

I like the Match Winner Treble here, at 10/1+ (11.00+) with Bet365 and BetVictor, or 9/1+ (10.00+) with NetBet, 10Bet, Betway, William Hill, Boylesports.

Those seven firms are the preferred bookies for accas as they go by the ‘bet void’ rule if a match is not completed – find out more on my Bookies and Rules page here.

Women’s Outright Winner…

The top half of the Women’s draw contains names like World No.1 and French Open champion Ashleigh Barty… Grand Slam legend Serena Williams… reigning Wimbledon champion Angelique Kerber… two-time champ Petra Kvitova… World No.4 Kiki Bertens… British No.1 and 2017 semi-finalist Johanna Konta and two-time Major finalist Sloane Stephens.

We’re targeting the bottom half where the draw looks a lot less tough and therefore, more open to a player breaking through at big odds…

We already have an interest in a few players in the bottom half…

  • Before the draw was made, our 100/1+ pre-tournament ‘Ones to Watch’ were Magdalena Rybarikova and Dayana Yastremska. I widely circulated these pre-tournament picks, so chances are that you’ve already backed them. If not, odds of 66/1 Each Way are still widely available for Rybarikova, and Yastremska is 50/1 in general and 80/1 with 888 Sport & Unibet

Once the draw was made, we kicked things off on Monday with two Each Way picks in the Women’s Outright Winner market – Madison Keys @ 25/1 (now 18/1) and Petra Martic @ 50/1+ (now 40/1).

Round 2 starts today….

Rybarikova is the 4/7 (1.57) favourite to beat 15-year-old headline-maker Cori Gauff.

Keys is 2/7 (1.28) to beat Polona Hercog, who had a long three-set battle in the 1st Round.

Martic is also a 2/7 favourite today, taking on 18-year-old Anastasia Potapova.

Yastremska plays Sofia Kenin – and this match could prove to be a thriller…

Sofia Kenin @ 40/1

Yastremska is 19 years old and ranked No.35 in the world. The Ukrainian has won two WTA titles already this year.

Sofia Kenin is 20 and up to a career high No.28 in the rankings. The American has also won two titles so far in 2019, and made a further final (runner-up), too.

As those two stats suggest, the slight edge is with Kenin here. The bookies agree, making ‘Sonya’ 8/13 (1.62) favourite to win today’s match.

Having taken the Mallorca title on grass last month, Kenin has the better grass form, too. In their young careers to date, Kenin’s grass court match win-loss record is 13-5 (72%), compared to 13-9 for Yastremska (59%).

I’m excited about this match. This the first meeting between these two. They look sure to battle it out many more times in the years to come, and both are ones to watch this season and beyond.

Their playing styles are also similarly matched. Both of these young women are fierce competitors. They play to win, all day. Look out for a floppy, no eye contact ‘handshake’ at the end. They do not like losing. They both smack the ball extremely hard, too – and both are capable of some wonderful shots.

For all the quality on show, this one will most likely be settled by the ugly stuff. Unforced errors and Double Faults. Someone losing their serve under pressure. Right now I rate Kenin as slightly ahead of Yastremska in the consistency stakes. Taking their 1st Round matches as an example, the Ukrainian lost her serve twice in each set – while Kenin didn’t face a single break point in her match.

The other reason to get excited about this one is that the draw looks promising for whoever wins today…

Naomi Osaka is already out of Quarter 4 – on paper the World No.2 would have been waiting in the next round. Wozniacki is the seeded 4th Round opponent in this section – but as noted above, Wimbledon is not her best venue. Same goes for potential quarter-finalist Simona Halep – SW19 is historically her worst Grand Slam.

With all that in mind, backing Kenin at 40/1 or 33/1 is the advice today. (And if you’re not already on Yastremska, add her to your book at 50/1+, too).

Today’s bets:


Match Winner:

BET: Treble – KARLOVIC to beat Fabbiano, HUMBERT to beat Granollers & KUDERMETOVA to beat Wozniacki @ 10/1
BOOKIES: 10/1+ (11.00+) Bet365, BetVictor, 9/1+ (10.00+) NetBet, 10Bet, Betway, William Hill, Boylesports

  • Note: Those seven firms are the preferred bookies for accas as they go by the ‘bet void’ rule if a match is not completed – find out more on my Bookies and Rules page here

Latest odds here

Outright Winner:

Wimbledon – Women’s

BET: Sofia Kenin @ 40/1 Each Way
BOOKIES: 40/1 888 Sport, Unibet, 33/1 Bet365, Skybet, BetVictor, Betfair Sportsbook, Paddy Power, Betfred, NetBet, 10Bet

Latest odds here

  • Each Way terms: 1/2 odds 1-2 places

Staking: Unless otherwise stated, all our Outright Winner bets are 1 point Each Way (total stake 2 pts). All other Win Only bets and accas are 1 point.

The Rollover – bet No.3…

Alongside our daily & tournament picks, we’ll be looked to profit from Wimbledon with our Rollover bet…

The aim is to roll a £10 stake over with match winner selections, cashing-out when we get to the £100 mark. I believe that’s an achievable target. We’re not reaching for the stars. We did it in May. And this feature adds some extra excitement to our tennis coverage.

  • The Rollover advice will always be to bet with bookies that void match bets for uncompleted matches. That way we’ll never lose our stake/ rollover pot due to a match retirement. Find out more about bookies’ rules here

After £12.85 on bet No.2 won @ 1/4 (1.25) yesterday with Amanda Anisimova beating Sorana Cirstea (6-3, 6-3), we have £16.06 going on Rollover bet No.3 today, with the match scheduled for 11am:

Rollover bet:

  • Maria Sakkari to beat Marie Bouzkova @ 2/7 (1.28)

Sakkari first came to my attention at Wimbledon three years ago, impressive in defeat against Venus Williams. The Greek rising star – now 23 – is starting to make her name on the tour, winning her first WTA title earlier this year. Another big hitting, fired-up youngster, Sakkari should prove too strong for Bouzkova today – the 20-year-old Czech lost in Wimbledon Qualifying but made the main draw as a Lucky Loser.

This is the first match on Court 14, starting at 11am.

Sakkari is 2/7 (1.28) with Bet365, BetVictor, Betway, Boylesports, NetBet, 10Bet.

Latest odds here

I’ll be back tomorrow at 8am with your Bets of the Day for Thursday, with more on the 2nd Round matches.

Enjoy the tennis…

Best wishes,

Oliver Upstone

Tom Wilson

Ones to Watch