Tennis Betting Advice - July 2020

Two underdogs in Austria this afternoon...

Wednesday 8th July 2020

In your Ones to Watch email today:

  • Thiem’s Seven, Austria…
  • Two underdogs for this afternoon…
  • Play starts 3pm…

Thiem’s Seven…

Another week, and another new exhibition event on the post-lockdown tennis calendar…

We’re back on the clay courts in Austria, as we were for the Generali Austria Pro Series last month. But this time the event is ‘Thiem’s Seven’

As the title sort of indicates, this competition is set up by Dominic Thiem, and features him and seven other players.

The event is being held in Kitzbuhel, a long-time clay-court stop-off on the ATP Tour.

The scoring system I spoke about last week in the States is being used again, too. It’s best of three ‘normal’ sets, apart from third-set deciders, which will be played as a first-to-10-points Champions Tiebreak.

Play started yesterday, and continues through to Saturday. Two underdogs catch my eye today, with the 2-1 Set Betting option my preference for getting not only the biggest prices, but also an outcome that follows the potential scoreboard ‘scripts,’ too…

Jan-Lennard Struff v Casper Ruud

The 30-year-old Struff is the more experienced, and the German often punches above his weight. However, I’m not so keen on him when he’s the match favourite, as he is here.

Just two places separate these men in the rankings. But Rudd is just 21 years old, so the fact that he’s already up to No.36 shows the good progress he’s making.

With youth still on his side, and an upwards career arc expected from now on, especially on clay, Ruud is one to follow at underdog prices. He could prove value in the weeks and months to come.

The Norwegian youngster is around 11/8 (2.38) for the win today. Their last meeting went the distance. Neither will go down easy. Yesterday, both men had close matches. Struff lost 3-6, 6-4, 15-13 v Andrey Rublev. Ruud went down by a tight 7-5, 7-6 score v leading man Thiem.

Rudd in three sets is my pick, with odds of 9/2 (5.50) and 4/1 (5.00) available for the 2-1 result.

Dominic Thiem v Andrey Rublev

The headline match of the day should live up to its billing. You won’t find two men who hit the ball harder on a tennis court than these guys…

Expect a battle of the big forehands, and plenty of athleticism, too. Thiem is the clear favourite at around 2/5 (1.40). But expect World No.14, Rublev to make this very competitive…

The match win-loss form shows the Russian is 4-0 on clay so far in 2020. Thiem is 17-2. This is a high-level match-up. The career head-to-head is 2-1 to Thiem. The most recent meeting, on clay in Hamburg last year, went to Rublev, 7-6, 7-6. Their previous clay clash, at Monte Carlo in 2018, ended 5-7, 7-5, 7-5 to Thiem.

As those score-lines suggest, this one could be settled by narrow margins. Rublev is around 2/1 (3.00) at best as the Match Winner underdog. Again, I like the 2-1 Set Betting option, with around 11/2 (6.50) available there.

Thiem’s Seven:


  • Set Betting – Casper Ruud to win 2-1 v Jan-Lennard Struff is 9/2 (5.50) with Bet365, BetVictor, 17/4 (5.25) Sportingbet, Bwin, 4/1 (5.00) Ladbrokes, Coral, 7/2 (4.50) Skybet, William Hill, Betfred


  • Set Betting – Andrey Rublev to win 2-1 v Dominic Thiem is 23/4 (6.75) with Sportingbet, Bwin, 11/2 (6.50) Bet365, BetVictor, William Hill, Ladbrokes, Coral, 5/1 (6.00) Skybet, Betfred

You can watch the Thiem’s Seven event live on Eurosport. And on live streaming on bookies’ websites, including Bet365 and Skybet.

I’ll be back soon with more. Next week we have the Progress Tour Women’s Championships to look forward to in England at the National Tennis Centre.

Enjoy the tennis,

Best wishes,

Oliver Upstone

Tom Wilson

Ones to Watch