Tennis Betting Advice - July 2020
4/1 Reilly for a slugfest…
Saturday 4th July 2020
In your Ones to Watch email today:
There are no draws in tennis. If you bet in the Match Winner markets, it’s win or lose. Yesterday, I picked the wrong man in all three matches that I covered at the DraftKings All-American Team Cup.
We’re looking to stay on the right side of a decent price this evening, though…
Isner v Opelka tonight…
John Isner and Reilly Opelka are the two of the tallest men in the game. Along with the 41-year-old Ivo Karlovic, 22-year-old Opelka stands 6’11”. The 35-year-old Isner is just behind those two, officially listed as 6’10”…
As you might imagine from those height stats, those three men have regularly dominated the annual Most Aces stats.
Those guys are also involved in many, many tiebreak sets, with matches peppered with 7-6 scores…
The 2019 head-to-head formbook for Isner v Opelka today says it all:
Atlanta (hard court): Opelka 7-6, 6-7, 7-6
New York (indoor hard): Opelka 6-7, 7-6, 7-6
Australian Open (hard court): Opelka 7-6, 7-6, 6-7, 7-6
It’s worth noting that neither player had a 7-6 set in their opening matches at the All-American Team Cup yesterday. While we can expect come rustiness and perhaps not the same rhythm and consistency on serve as in those three match examples from last season, it’s still fair to say the scoreboard could be pretty close tonight…
Isner is 8/13 (1.62) to win, and won his opening match 2-0 on Friday. The younger man, Opelka is the 13/10 (2.30) underdog, despite the recent head-to-head – and has lost three matches in a row in the last week.
The Tiebreak and 7-6 Set Correct Score markets don’t offer much in the way of enticing prices…
The bookies are clearly wary of this one being a serve-dominated slugfest. While we got odds of 9/1 and 8/1 for Andy Murray to win a set 7-6 last weekend, for this match you’re looking at more like 2/1 for each player. And it’s odds-on for the 1st Set to go to a tiebreak, at 10/11 (1.91) at best (Skybet).
Adding in the first meeting between these players from back in 2016 at Atlanta, when Opelka was still a teenager (Isner won 2-1), none of the four career encounters between these two big Americans have been settled in straight sets.
You could back both men to win 2-1 in the Set Betting market at odds of 3/1+ (4.00+) each. My pick is Opelka at the best price, a standout 4/1 (5.00) to win 2-1.
Swiatek in action, too…
Opelka is one of the five men on our Ones to Watch in 2020 list. In the women’s section of that list, teenager Iga Swiatek is one player that I’m very keen on. I genuinely believe she’s got the game and attitude to challenge for big titles in the next few years.
The Polish rising star turned 19 at the end of May. Iga returned to court yesterday with a win by the best possible score-line, the 6-0, 6-0 ‘double bagel.’ That was against Conny Perrin at the Elle Spirit Open event in Switzerland (clay courts).
That new competition continues today. Not all the bookies are covering this. But if you fancy a Match Winner bet on our young One to Watch player this afternoon, Swiatek is 4/7 (1.57) to beat 22-year-old Jil Belen Teichmann. The Swiss opponent also won well on Friday. But I’d stay on the right side of Swiatek here.
All-American Team Cup, USA - Men:
11pm UK time
Elle Spirit Open, Switzerland – Women:
I’ll be back next week with my analysis on the latest tournaments and matches taking place.
Enjoy the tennis,