Tennis Betting Advice - July 2021

Wimbledon – Day 11: The time is now for The Silent Assassin…

Friday 9th July 2021

In Ones to Watch today:

  • Wimbledon Day 11…
  • Men’s Semi Finals…
  • Berrettini v Hurkacz…

Good morning and welcome to Day 11 of your Wimbledon 2021 service.

How close did we come with yesterday’s Total Sets double?

Bar actually having a set point, Angelique Kerber got within touching distance of taking her semi final with Ash Barty to a decider. The German was 5-2 up in the second set, served for it, and then eventually lost it on a tiebreak, 7-6.

In the day’s other semi final, Karolina Pliskova upset the odds, coming from behind to beat Aryna Sabalenka, 2-1. The two score-lines yesterday:

Barty beat Kerber 6-3, 7-6.

Pliskova beat Sabalenka 5-7, 6-4, 6-4.

Men’s Semi Final – Berrettini v Hurkacz…

We’ve got a massive Ones to Watch pick playing today. Backed Each Way at Outright Winner prices of 200/1, 150/1 & 100/1 last week. Our man Hubert Hurkacz is through to the Wimbledon semi finals, and now 10/1 to win the title.

He’s priced as the underdog today, taking on world no.9, Matteo Berrettini. The 25-year-old Italian is ranked nine places higher than Hurkacz, and is on a 10-match winning streak on grass, having won the prestigious Queen’s title in the run-up to Wimbledon.

In contrast, our 24-year-old Polish contender, Hurkacz arrived at SW19 on a six-match losing streak. But ‘Hubi’ has hit form here in splendid and serene fashion. Winning four out of five matches in straight sets. Knocking out both the world no.2 Daniil Medvedev, and the eight-time Wimbledon champion Roger Federer.

Despite those performances and results this fortnight, Hubert is still being treated as an outsider here. He was a 5/1 underdog in the betting v Medvedev, and 2/1 to beat Federer. The bookies went up as 2/1 (3.0) again in the early market for today’s match; a price that has since come in slightly, to 15/8 (2.88) and 7/4 (2.75) this morning.

I’ve got no problem at all being on the underdog. In fact, I like it. It’s what I do. If we didn’t already have a massive, half-the-odds Each Way ticket in hand for him to beat Berrettini today, I’d be putting Hurkacz up as Match Winner bet on its own merits.

That being my opinion, I’m personally not going to be spraying a large chunk of potential payout points on a ‘saver bet’ on Berrettini as the odds-on 4/9 (1.44) favourite today.

  • That’s an aggressive stance. If you want to protect your own stakes, or guarantee a profit from the match, then have yourself a sizeable bet on Berrettini at 4/9 today

Depending on how you’ve been playing or following the picks, Hurkacz has already done us proud with that 5/1 victory over Medvedev, and beating Federer to win the 4th Quarter of the draw at 16/1 & 14/1.

Berrettini is respected, of course. Matteo is a Top 10 player, and has reached a Grand Slam semi final before (US Open 2019). This is his best-ever run at Wimbledon though, as it is for Hubert. And arguably, the Polish player’s Centre Court triumph over Federer on Wednesday – in front of a capacity crowd – can stand him in better stead for today’s big occasion.

The tournament stats show that the Italian’s serve is a substantial weapon. Berrettini is ranked no.1 for Most Aces (79 from five matches), and has hit the second-fastest serve at Wimbledon 2021 (139 mph). Both men stand 6’5” – and Hurkacz himself possesses a big serve. He’s on 49 aces for the tournament, and ranked joint-5th for the fastest serve, at 136 mph.

The time is now for The Silent Assassin…

I like this quote from Hurkacz’s coach, Craig Boynton. Well aware that his charge is regarded as a quiet and friendly name on the tour, Boynton knows his player also possesses the ruthless competitive streak needed to succeed at the top of the sport:

“He’s not afraid to win, and that’s a very, very appealing quality. He wants to win, he’s very competitive, he’s a fighter, he’s very resilient”

It might seem the most obvious of prerequisites that a player must want to win. But I know what the coach means. There’s a certain X Factor in there – a switch that comes on at the most crucial moments in matches; a mental trait that separates the very good from the great.

That quote was from 2019, and I found it in an article entitled: Hubert Hurkacz: A Silent Assassin

Since then, ‘Hubi’ has won his first ATP title (2019), and then two more trophies this season. For his career-to-date, the 24-year-old Pole is played 3 won 3 in finals. Again, that says something about the make-up and mindset of this guy.

Hubert is now a Top 20 player. He has improved his year-end world ranking every season since turning pro:

2021: #18 current
2020: #34
2019: #37
2018: #86
2017: #238
2016: #383
2015: #620

The head-to-head between Hurkacz and Berrettini is tied at 1-1, with both previous encounters played on hard courts:

Miami 2019: Hurkacz won 6-4, 6-3.

Australian Open Qualifying 2018: Berrettini won 7-6, 6-3.

Enjoy the ride…

I’ve laid out my case for Hurkacz today. Our man is in the book at 100/1+. At the start of the tournament, Berrettini was 12/1, the same price as Federer, and with only three names ahead of him in the betting (Djokovic, Medvedev, and Stefanos Tsitsipas).

The Italian is everyone’s favourite, it would seem. The bookies say it. The rankings say it. But Hubert is having the tournament of his life, and he’s not done yet. I’m fully behind our player today.

Underdogs at massive prices is what Ones to Watch is all about. We don’t get many days like today. The chance of a Big One reaching a major final. It’s an exciting situation to be in. Enjoy the match. The players will be stepping out on to Centre Court at 1.30pm.

I’ll be back on Saturday morning with your Wimbledon Day 12 email and analysis. When we’ll be looking at the Women’s Final, Ash Barty v Karolina Pliskova.

Enjoy the tennis…

Best wishes,

Oliver Upstone

Tom Wilson

Ones to Watch