Tennis Betting Advice - July 2021

Wimbledon: Djokovic hard to beat at 6/1…

Sunday 11th July 2021

In Ones to Watch today:

  • Wimbledon Day 13…
  • Men’s Final…
  • Djokovic v Berrettini…

Good morning and welcome to Day 13 of your Wimbledon 2021 service.

Close but no cigar with yesterday’s Aces and Double Faults picks, which has been the story of my summer so far. As anticipated, both ‘Draw’ options kept us in the running throughout the women’s final. Serving for the match, Ash Barty hit an Ace at 40-40, and that squeezed the stats in her favour – denying us a 10/1 payout.

Barty beat Karolina Pliskova 6-3, 6-7, 6-3

Aces = 7-6
Double Faults = 7-5

Men’s Final – Djokovic v Berrettini…

It’s the men’s final this afternoon. World no.1 Novak Djokovic is aiming to make it three out of three Grand Slam titles in 2021. With the Olympics and US Open still to come, Nole is looking for the fabled clean sweep, known as the ‘Golden Slam.’

On the other side of the net, world no.9 Matteo Berrettini is playing in his first ever Grand Slam final.

These two last met in the French Open quarter finals at the start of June. Djokovic prevailed by three sets to one that day.

Hard to beat…

The challenge is to actually beat one of Djokovic, Roger Federer, or Rafael Nadal on the biggest stage, with a Major title on the line.

It doesn’t happen very often…

Stan Wawrinka beat Nadal for the 2014 Australian Open title. He then took out Djokovic in the 2015 French Open final, and again in the US Open title match in 2016.

Andy Murray – who was making it a ‘Big Four’ in men’s tennis at the time – beat Novak for the 2012 US Open title. And, also in New York, Juan Martin Del Potro overcame Federer for a sole Grand Slam title win in 2009.

  • 55 of the last 64 men’s Grand Slam titles have been won by Djokovic, Federer, or Nadal. With 3 for Murray, 3 for Wawrinka, one for Del Potro, one for Thiem, and one for Marin Cilic. In that time, Murray has been the only man to break the stranglehold at Wimbledon

Building on our ‘challenger’ analysis from before the men’s French Open final last month. Here’s the recent tale of the tape for when a relative newcomer takes on an established Big Three name in a Grand Slam final:

French Open 2021 – Djokovic beat Stefanos Tsitsipas, 3-2
Australian Open 2021 – Djokovic beat Daniil Medvedev, 3-0
Australian Open 2020 – Djokovic beat Dominic Thiem, 3-2
US Open 2019 – Nadal beat Daniil Medvedev, 3-2
French Open 2019 – Nadal beat Dominic Thiem, 3-1
French Open 2018 – Nadal beat Dominic Thiem, 3-0

Another 3-2 final on the cards…

Three of the last four such finals have seen the young challenger take the Grand Slam legend to a final set, before succumbing, 3-2. Thiem (v Djokovic) in Melbourne last year, Medvedev (v Nadal) the year before in New York. And Tsitsipas (v Djokovic) in the French Open final last month.

  • Djokovic in Major finals: 3 of his last 5 Grand Slam finals have gone to 5 Sets, and Novak has come out on top each time. Coming from 1-2 down to beat Thiem, 3-2 at the Australian Open last year. Saving match points to beat Federer, 3-2 at in the Wimbledon final in 2019. And most recently coming from 0-2 down to beat Tsitsipas, 3-2 in Paris

Today’s betting has Djokovic at very short odds-on to win the match, as you would expect. The Serbian is 2/11 (1.18). Italian challenger Berrettini is 4/1 (5.0).

Going on the recent finals listed above, the Djokovic 3-2 score appeals to me, at 6/1 (7.0) and 11/2 (6.5) in the Set Betting market. The world no.1 is a man on a mission this season, and knows how to win – even if he’s not playing at his absolute top level. Berrettini is out to make history himself, and has been the best server in the tournament – so he can keep himself well in touch on the scoreboard throughout.

Ones to Watch – Wimbledon

Djokovic v Berrettini – 2pm, BBC One

  • Set Betting: Djokovic to win 3-2 @ 6/1 Boylesports, 11/2 Ladbrokes, Coral, Sportingbet, Bwin, Bet365, Skybet, William Hill, BetVictor

Over at WTA Hamburg, Dayana Yastremka’s return to action ended with a creditable run to the semi finals this week. She looked to be carrying a bit of a leg injury by the end, so let’s see how she turns out next time. The Ukrainian’s attacking game definitely still looked in order, which was good to see in her first appearance of the year. I also liked how Dayana actually smiled and hugged her opponent at the end of the match. Usually, Yastremska is from the school of no-eye-contact, minimal/ token handshakes (!).

The tours continue next week, and I’ll be back from Tuesday with my take on the action.

Enjoy the tennis…

Best wishes,

Oliver Upstone

Tom Wilson

Ones to Watch