Tennis Betting Advice - July 2021
Wimbledon – Day 8: Women’s Quarter Finals…
Tuesday 6th July 2021
In Ones to Watch today:
Good morning and welcome to Day 8 of your Wimbledon 2021 service.
Three of the seven men’s 4th round matches completed on Monday went to five sets. But not my 9/1 outsider Lorenzo Sonego against Roger Federer. And Ones to Watch youngster Sebastian Korda was on the wrong end of a nail-biting five-set, 3-2 defeat. Going down in the most topsy-turvy of finals sets, 3-6, 6-4, 6-3, 5-7, 10-8 in a four-hour contest v Karen Khachanov.
There’s one 4th round match still to be decided, and that’s our 100/1+ tournament & 5/1 match outsider Hubert Hurkacz, in action again today as he looks to come from behind to beat world no.2, Daniil Medvedev.
Rained off yesterday, the score stands at: 6-2, 6-7, 6-3, 4-3* to Medvedev (*denotes server). Hurkacz and Medvedev will be on Centre Court from 1.30pm today, under the roof if needed.
Through to the Quarter Finals…
Monday was a good day for three of our Outright picks. With 50/1 Karolina Muchova, 40/1 Ons Jabeur, and 66/1 Felix Auger-Aliassime all winning, to move through to the quarter finals.
In this morning’s revised Outright Winner betting, Jabeur is now 4/1 to go all the way and lift a maiden Grand Slam trophy this weekend, with Muchova 10/1 for the same feat.
In the men’s, 20-year-old Auger-Aliassime is now priced at 20/1. After the remaining teenagers in the draw were knocked out yesterday, Felix is the youngest player left in the tournament.
We’re also on that trio in the respective Quarter Winner markets. Meaning we now have these prices on our players to win their quarter final matches:
2nd Quarter Winner: Karolina Muchova 7/1+ (8.0+)
Price to win quarter final v Anqelique Kerber: 13/10 (2.3)
4th Quarter Winner: Ons Jabeur 8/1+ (9.0+)
Price to win quarter final v Aryna Sabalenka: 6/5 (2.2)
3rd Quarter Winner: Felix Auger-Aliassime 7/1 (8.0)
Price to win quarter final v Matteo Berrettini: 5/2 (3.5)
In each case, our player is the match underdog. We have value on our side there, with those Quarter Winner odds giving us inflated odds on each to win their quarter final. With that in mind, if you want to protect your stakes today, you may wish to have a ‘saver bet’ on the opponents.
It's women’s quarter finals day today, with the men in action tomorrow. My take is that both Muchova and Jabeur have good underdog credentials, with Jabeur the more likely to pull off the upset in my eyes.
We’ve got a couple of women through to the business end of the tournament at big prices – and that’s always an exciting position to be in. Play starts from 1pm.
Aside from our Ones to Watch picks, there are two massive pre-tournament outsiders left in the women’s draw. Just look at these prices…
Swiss 28-year-old world no. 66, Viktorija Golubic was 500/1 on day one. Australian 28-year-old world no.75, Ajla Tomljanovic was 600/1. Both make their Grand Slam quarter-final debuts this afternoon:
Karolina Pliskova v Golubic
Ashleigh Barty v Tomljanovic
WTA Hamburg starts today…
Over in Germany, there’s a WTA 250-grade tournament kicking off at lunchtime. WTA Hamburg is a new addition to the women’s calendar.
With several players making their way over to the clay here after losing in week one at Wimbledon on grass, there’s a pretty decent line-up of talent in the inaugural Hamburg Open draw….
Including the likes of American power-player Danielle Collins, clay-court specialist Fiona Ferro, and the resurgent, back-from-injury Ana Konjuh. Recent French Open semi-finalist Tamara Zidansek, and upcoming German 21-year-old, Jule Niemeier – to name just five.
At first glance, appealing odds are hard to come by in the fledgling Outright Winner market for Hamburg. Of those five women listed above, the youngster Niemeier is the biggest price, at 16/1 with Bet365, Paddy Power & Betfair Sportsbook.
Several bookies are yet to price-up yet though, and there are only three 1st round matches on the Tuesday schedule, with the final qualification rounds still to be completed. That being the case, we’ll keep an eye on the Hamburg draw and prices over the next couple of days.
The return of Dayana Yastremska…
One name I will be looking out for in Hamburg this week is Dayana Yastremska. When I listed her in our pre-season Ones to Watch in 2021 report, I stated that the Ukrainian would be hoping for 2021 to work out better than 2020:
Last season saw injury, a split with her coach, getting into trouble on social media, and the year ended with a positive test for coronavirus. Things can improve for the Ukrainian in 2021. If she gets the focus back on the tennis and on court, Dayana has the same win-at-all-costs attitude as [Sofia] Kenin – and some massive shots in her locker.
Well, after that went to press, you can unfortunately add a doping ban to the list of troubles for Yastremska. She always maintained that she was innocent of any intentional wrongdoing (citing contamination). And after several failed attempts to overturn her suspension throughout the course of this season, Dayana has now had her name cleared, and will finally be back on court in a competitive capacity at Hamburg this week.
The bookies won’t be taking any chances on this fierce-hitting, strong-willed 21-year-old. Paddy Power & Betfair Sportsbook have installed Yastremska as a 6/1 (7.0) favourite. With Bet365 at 15/2 (8.5) to make a winning return to the tour, Ladbrokes & Coral going 8/1 (9.0), and William Hill 9/1 (10.0).
I wouldn’t be taking single-figure odds like those without seeing what kind of shape Yastremka is in. But from what we saw before 2020, I’d say the chances are she’ll coming out swinging. Dayana’s last two title wins, back in 2019, came at odds of 12/1 and 11/1, in similar 250-grade events to this one in Hamburg.
No bets for me today, but a watching brief for WTA Hamburg and Yastremska. And I’ll be tuning in to cheer on Muchova and Jabeur in the Wimbledon quarter finals.
I’ll be back tomorrow morning with your Day 9 email and analysis, with the men’s quarter finals taking place on Wednesday.
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Enjoy the tennis…