Tennis Betting Advice - July 2022
Wimbledon: Day 5 – Jule has the power at 66/1…
Friday 1st July 2022
Good morning. Welcome to Day 5 of your Wimbledon 2022 Daily Service. Play starts from 11am…
A simple plan…
Maxime Cressy will step back out on court at lunchtime today with a clear goal: win three sets in a row. That’s easier said than done, with Cressy trailing fellow American, Jack Sock, when fading light stopped play last night. The score stands at 6-4, 6-4 to Sock.
In the ‘in play’ Match Winner market, the bookies make Maxime a 4/1 (5.0) shot to come back and win this afternoon. The only way that can happen from here is via the 3-2 Set Betting score-line – an option we’re on at a slightly better price, with Cressy 3-2 one of yesterday’s selections at 11/2 (6.5) or 5/1 (6.0).
So, let’s all cheer for Max when he heads out on Court 3 at lunchtime. It’s the second match on, with play starting from 11am.
3rd Round…
Yesterday we had three of our tournament Outright Winner picks in action, and they all progressed through to the 3rd round. Taylor Fritz and Stefanos Tsitsipas won in straight sets in the men’s. And in the women’s, we added 66/1 Paula Badosa. The Spaniard also won in straight sets, and is now 40/1 in general.
Today we have three other Each Way picks on show, as the 3rd round gets underway in the bottom half of the women’s draw, and the top half of the men’s. Ons Jabeur, Angelique Kerber, and Tim Van Rijthoven are our players here.
Kerber and Van Rijthoven are going in my match acca today (see below). Jabeur has an interesting one on Centre Court, with the world no.2 taking on French teenager, Diane Parry. The pressure will all be on Jabeur here, who is now the 5/1 second favourite for Wimbledon, having been 40/1 & 33/1 when we backed her in April.
In comparison to those prices, 19-year-old Parry is 7/1 to win the match – and as big as 500/1 for the trophy. In other circumstances I might have been looking to follow the youngster here. But Jabeur has steadily become grittier in recent years, and can be relied on to give her all to avoid what would be a damaging upset.
In this part of the women’s draw, we’re also on Kerber, and should she beat Elise Mertens today, our 33/1 pick will face the winner of Jabeur v Parry in the next round. That being the case, I’m not making any extra moves involving those players today.
Jule has the power…
Lower down the bottom half of the women’s draw, one emerging youngster I do want to get behind at a big price is JULE NIEMEIER. She blasted away 2nd seed Anett Kontaveit on Wednesday, 6-4, 6-0. Granted, Kontaveit wasn’t at her best, still looking to regain form and fitness after having Covid, and also recently switching coaches. However, the 2nd seed was still the big favourite to win that match – and 22-year-old Niemeier made a mockery of the odds. The powerful German, ranked no.97 in the world, displayed all the big-hitting, attacking tennis attributes that have been an earmark of breakthrough youngsters in the women’s game in recent years (think Iga Swiatek, Jelena Ostapenko – both of whom won debut Grand Slam titles at 100/1).
Taking on the injury-prone Lesia Tsurenko today, who is playing with strapping on her elbow that appears to hamper her serving, the new kid on the block can be expected to make mincemeat of a few second serves this morning. Niemeier is the fav to win the match, and is going in my Day 5 acca.
The German first came onto my radar during that strange 2020 ‘lockdown’ season, with a patch of form that included five lower-tier tournaments in a row where Jule made the quarter finals or semi finals. This spring (on clay), Niemeier also strung together a confidence-boosting array of results across five events on the lower-tier ITF and WTA circuits, reaching two finals (won both) and a semi final.
Of course, Grand Slam territory is a big step up. But everything I’ve seen so far suggests Jule has the mental capacity to deal with this situation, and embrace it rather than fear it. And as we always say, the big breakthrough run can come at any time, and seemingly out of nowhere.
Plus, this section of the women’s Wimbledon 2022 draw is there to be attacked, with the winner of Niemeier v Tsurenko facing another unheralded name, Heather Watson or Kaja Juvan, for a place in the quarter finals…
In the Outright Winner betting, I want to get this exciting youngster onside today. With odds of 66/1 Each Way available with the firms that are still offering 1/2 odds for 1-2 places (listed below) – and a standout 80/1 at 888 Sport, and 70/1 at Unibet.
Day 5 match picks…
In the Match Winner markets, I like John Isner as an odds-against single to beat Jannik Sinner today. The American has been serving like a monster, and the young Italian has sometimes struggled to hold onto his own service deal in situations like this before. That match is scheduled for 2pm+.
And for a six-fold match acca, these names are on my list at 7/1:
Tommy Paul to beat Jiri Vesely
Tim Van Rijthoven to beat Nikoloz Basilashvili
Carlos Alcaraz to beat Oscar Otte
Cameron Norrie to beat Steve Johnson
Jule Niemeier to beat Lesia Tsurenko
Angelique Kerber to beat Elise Mertens
Play starts from 11am.
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Ones to Watch picks – Wimbledon:
Match Winner:
Women’s Outright Winner – Each Way (1/2 odds 1-2 places):
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I’ll be back at 8am tomorrow with your Wimbledon Day 6 email.
You can get in touch with me during the tournament by emailing me at:
Enjoy the tennis…
Best wishes,
Tom Wilson