Tennis Betting Advice - July 2022
Wimbledon: Day 6 – grab the popcorn…
Saturday 2nd July 2022
Welcome to Day 6 of your Wimbledon 2022 Daily Service…
5 out of 6…
Good morning. Things started brightly for us on Friday, including our 66/1 women’s outsider Jule Niemeier booking her place in the Last 16. The emerging German is now 40/1. And with the 22-year-old facing another unseeded player, Heather Watson, for a place in the quarter finals – things could start to get exciting.
On the match betting front though, it was another day at the ‘nearly’ club. Maxime Cressy served for the 4th set to level the match at 2-2 v Jack Sock, but couldn’t find his best level. After breaking the all-time career Most Aces record, John Isner ran out of steam against Jannik Sinner. And then a close-but-no-cigar 5 out of 6 from my Friday match acca. Last time we were one away from an acca like that, we landed the very next one…
Our leading women’s outright pick Ons Jabeur was in fine form on Centre Court. Showing the creativity and serving ability in her locker with a very convincing performance in a 6-2, 6-3 victory over the promising French teenager, Diane Parry. Our top-price 40/1 early-bird pick Jabeur is now 3/1 to go all the way. As with so many players looking to reach a maiden Grand Slam final, the big task is to deal with the nerves and expectation. So far, so good for Ons, and she’ll be in action again on Sunday, looking to reach the quarter finals for the second year running.
In the top half of the men’s draw, our 150/1 in-form underdog Tim Van Rijthoven was impressive once again, dispatching Nikoloz Basilashvili in straight sets, 3-0. Tim has now won 8 matches in a row on the grass. Across the first three rounds here on his Wimbledon debut, Van Rijthoven has posted a 1st Serve Points Won average of 90%. That’s the best in the tournament, as it stands.
Next up for Tim, the biggest challenge in men’s tennis right now – taking on the three-time reigning champion, Novak Djokovic. Sunday’s match will be a classic Ones to Watch situation for us: a rank outsider, in the book at a huge price, taking on a household name and looking to spring a surprise.
10 out of 256…
The 3rd round completes today. As of this year, there’s no Middle Sunday rest day at Wimbledon. Meaning the 4th round (Last 16) matches start tomorrow – setting up an unbroken two-week run of top-class tennis entertainment at SW19.
At the start of the tournament, a total of 256 players lined up across the men’s & women’s singles. In the Outright Winner markets, where we target appealing outsiders at attractive Each Way prices, we backed 10 players, covering a modest 3.9% of the field.
Going into Saturday’s matches, we have six picks still standing, and some exciting odds in the book (original advised prices in brackets):
Men’s:
Tim Van Rijthoven (150/1, 125/1, 100/1) – into Last 16
Stefanos Tsitsipas (30/1, 28/1, 25/1) – plays in 3rd round today
Taylor Fritz (125/1, 100/1, 80/1) – plays in 3rd round today
Women’s:
Ons Jabeur (40/1, 33/1) – into Last 16
Jule Niemeier (80/1, 70/1, 66/1) – into Last 16
Paula Badosa (80/1, 66/1) – plays in 3rd round today
Grab the popcorn…
Focusing on the players we have in action today. Taylor Fritz is the favourite to beat the upcoming Alex Molcan. The Slovakian has posted some good results in recent months, and is now working with Novak Djokovic’s former coach, Marian Vajda. Fritz has matured well over the last couple of seasons, and is looking to build on what is already his best ever run at Wimbledon.
Our other two players are involved in box-office match-ups today, both of which are rightly being billed as heavyweight clashes…
Badosa v Kvitova
Paula Badosa takes on two-time Wimbledon winner, Petra Kvitova. Our player will start at the underdog here. The 24-year-old Spaniard is higher-ranked and has had the better results and career trajectory in the last two seasons. But Kvitova is showing some of her old form, with the 32-year-old Czech winning WTA Eastbourne last week, and currently rocking a 7-match winning streak on grass. A former world no.2, the left-hander is ranked no.26 these days.
The head-to-head is 1-0 to Petra, with that encounter coming on hard courts at the Australian Open in 2020. Back then, Paula was ranked no.97 in the world. She’s now no.4.
This should be a feisty, big-hitting encounter. As I said the other day when we got her in the book at 66/1+, it seems like no-one is talking about Paula here at Wimbledon. That suits me fine. Let the hype come for Kvitova. The bookies make our player a best price of 13/10 (2.3) to win today. Despite how the mainstream media might report it, those odds mean it wouldn’t be a seismic shock if Badosa won this one. Odds of 13/10 suggest a percentage chance of around 43%.
Kyrgios v Tsitsipas
We have another marginal underdog in the match betting here. Our man Stefanos Tsitsipas is 11/10 (2.1) to beat Nick Kyrgios. As ‘true odds’ (eg. if there was no bookie margin), odds of 11/10 would suggest a 48% chance for our player. And this one really could be close…
Again, our player is higher-ranked, but the head-to-head (and media spotlight) is on the opponent. Tsitsipas is no.5 in the world, and age just 23, the Greek star has reached multiple Grand Slam semi finals already – including one final.
Kyrgios is either destined to win a big one like Wimbledon in a blaze of glory and drama, or go down in the tennis history books as a supremely talented entertainer, who never fulfilled his full potential. Age 27, Nick is ranked no.40 in the world. The Aussie’s best Grand Slam runs came some time ago – making waves as a newcomer when reaching the Wimbledon quarter finals in 2014, and then the Australian Open quarters in 2015.
The head-to-head v Tsitsipas is 3-1 to Kyrgios. That includes a 2-1 win on grass at ATP Halle last month. However, the big difference for me here is that this is their first meeting at a Grand Slam. And that means a best-of-five-sets encounter. I’d give the edge to Stef over the course of a four or five-hour marathon.
Kyrgios will play the rock-n-roll tennis that he does, looking to play as fast as possible. In comparison to the loose cannon on the other side of the net, I expect Tsitsipas to be calm and measured. He will get under Nick’s skin – make no mistake about that. And with a raucous crowd sure to be in the stands here, there’s always the very real possibility that Nick will lose his head at some point.
‘Stick with the girl that you brought to the dance’…
In the Outright Winner market, Tsitsipas is currently trading at 20/1 – 14/1 for the title. Kyrgios is 14/1 and 12/1. Badosa is 40/1, with Kvitova at 14/1 and 12/1. In both cases, we’re on the underdog at bigger prices, having backed both Tsitsipas and Badosa earlier on in week one. If you want to guarantee a player progressing through from these big matches today, then don’t let me stop you from adding Kyrgios and Kvitova at 14s or 12s if you want to.
For me though, I’m sticking to my guns with the bigger prices in the book. As tennis commentator Robbie Koenig likes to say, ‘You gotta stick with the girl that you brought to the dance.’
In fact, I’m backing our players on their own merit to win today’s matches. It’s not often you get the chance to back players of the calibre of Badosa and Tsitsipas at Match Winner prices greater than Evens (2.0+). And underdog value is what we’re after.
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Ones to Watch picks – Wimbledon:
Match Winner:
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I’ll be back again at 8am tomorrow with your Wimbledon Day 7 email.
You can get in touch during the tournament by emailing me at:
Enjoy the tennis…
Best wishes,
Tom Wilson