Tennis Betting Advice - July 2022

Wimbledon: Day 7 – get 14/1 for an epic shock…

Sunday 3rd July 2022

Welcome to Day 7 of your Wimbledon 2022 Daily Service…

Saturday night mayhem…

Nick Kyrgios v Stefanos Tsitsipas turned out to be every inch the wild ride that we thought it would be.

One thing that I perhaps didn’t anticipate was how much Kyrgios would get under Tsitsipas’ skin. I thought it would be more likely that the Aussie would lose his temper.

In the end, both of these young men let themselves down at times. But whatever your opinion of the players’ behaviour, it was high drama and excitement for a prime-time viewing public on Saturday night.

Once the roof went on, Tsitsipas had two set points to take the match to a deciding fifth set, under the lights. It wasn’t to be, and to be honest, as much as I was willing on our man Stef in that fiery encounter, sometimes you have to say, ‘too good’ – and that was the case with much of Nick’s play.

It’s hard to believe that this was only a 3rd round match. It had the buzz of something much bigger. But in the fresh light of a new day, ever keen to avoid the bandwagon, let’s note that there is still a long way to go from here to win the Wimbledon title – four more matches to win, to be precise…

When I say bandwagon, I’m talking about price. Kyrgios is now in single digits to win a first Grand Slam title next week. At 8/1 and 9/1 in general, with Betfred the only firm willing to still offer double figures (10/1). Having backed Nick at big prices in the past – including at 30/1 & 28/1 for Wimbledon 2019, the same odds that he went off at in this year’s event. I’m okay with the fact that I may have missed the summer – this summer, if indeed it is to be – that Nick finally got his Grand Slam act together. One thing’s for sure: the wild ride isn’t over yet.

We’re on 5 of the last 32…

While we lost Tsitsipas yesterday, elsewhere our Wimbledon 2022 Outright Winner portfolio is looking in quietly exciting shape…

From a total of 10 players that went in the Each Way book, we have five through to the Last 16. With a handful of big-price Ones to Watch picks all playing today or tomorrow for a place in the quarter finals.

At the start of the tournament, having 10 names onside across the men’s & women’s events combined meant we’d covered 3.9% of the total field. As it stands this morning, our five players account for 15.6% of the remaining competitors.

Our players and prices (original advised prices in brackets):


  • Tim Van Rijthoven (150/1, 125/1, 100/1) – plays today v Novak Djokovic
  • Taylor Fritz (125/1, 100/1, 80/1) – plays on Monday v Jason Kubler


  • Ons Jabeur (40/1, 33/1) – plays today v Elise Mertens
  • Jule Niemeier (80/1, 70/1, 66/1) – plays today v Heather Watson
  • Paula Badosa (80/1, 66/1) – plays on Monday v Simona Halep

Before we look ahead to what might happen next in the Outright markets, back to yesterday’s action, and I wasn’t the only one to use the phrase ‘grab the popcorn’ ahead of the Saturday schedule…

What I didn’t hear anyone else talking about was Paula Badosa’s chances of beating Petra Kvitova. I was so happy with Paula’s result; she saved a lot of break points, showing her mettle to beat one of the fancied Wimbledon contenders, 7-5, 7-6.

Badosa is into the Last 16 for the second year running. And along with our other selections Taylor Fritz and Ons Jabeur, the Spaniard is yet to drop a set. From odds of 66/1 in general when we backed Paula last week – and in light of yesterday’s big news in the women’s draw (see below) – our player is now trading at 12/1 at best.

It turned out to be an explosive day in more ways than one. As well as the theatrics between Kyrgios and Tsitsipas, the tournament witnessed one of the shocks of the year…

Blown wide open – and now opportunity knocks…

That big news in the women’s event was that Alize Cornet knocked out the world no.1 Iga Swiatek in straight sets. The draw was already looking wide open in many areas, as has been the case in many if not all recent women’s Grand Slams. And now, with the favourite out, and Swiatek’s 37-match winning streak finally brought to an end – the top half of the draw is also genuinely looking anyone’s for the taking…

Swiatek’s exit has blown the top half of the women's draw to shreds, and triggered a big shake-up in the overall Outright Winner market. At the top of the list, there’s a new favourite. Our early-bird pick from April, Ons Jabeur at 40/1 & 33/1, is now the 2/1 favourite for the trophy. There’s a lot of tennis still to be played, starting today. But that’s a nice position for us to be in.

Backing up that ‘wide open’ statement, just look at this:

  • On Saturday, 6 of the 8 women’s matches were won by the underdog
  • Just 7 of the 32 women's seeds have made it through to the round of Last 16
  • There are only 2 of the top 10 seeds left – and we're on both of them at big prices: Ons Jabeur and Paula Badosa

And here’s a list of the day one Outright Winner prices for each of the 16 women left in the draw, and this morning’s new prices:

Ons Jabeur 9/1 – now 2/1
Simona Halep 18/1 – now 4/1
Jelena Ostapenko 20/1 – now 6/1
Amanda Anisimova 50/1 – now 9/1
Paula Badosa 80/1 – now 12/1
Elena Rybakina 100/1 – now 14/1
Caroline Garcia 150/1 – now 20/1
Elise Mertens 200/1 – now 50/1
Ajla Tomljanovic 250/1 – now 40/1
Marie Bouzkova 250/1 – now 50/1
Alize Cornet 300/1 – now 20/1
Petra Martic 500/1 – now 66/1
Jule Niemeier 500/1 – now 28/1
Heather Watson 500/1 – now 50/1
Tatjana Maria 500/1 – now 100/1
Harmony Tan 1,000/1 – now 20/1

Just stop and take a look at those prices for a second:

  • 11 of the 16 players left in the draw started the tournament at odds of 100/1+ (!)

It’s crazy times in women’s tennis. And we’re looking to make as much hay as possible by identifying promising outsiders at massive prices…

From that list of 16, we can be happy to know that we’re on Jabeur at ante-post odds of 33/1+, Badosa at 66/1+ last week, and Neimeier backed at 66/1+ after the 2nd round.

I’ll be looking again at the potential routes to the final from here. With one player in my initial thoughts for Monday’s email. We’ll let the dust settle today, and then reassess in the morning.

Last but not least…

While Taylor Fritz is flying the flag for us at big odds in the bottom half of the men’s draw. We have 150/1 dark horse Tim Van Rijhthoven playing for us in the top half this evening…

The breakthrough Dutchman will be last on Centre Court this evening, for the biggest match of his life (so far). Our man is the rank outsider to beat the odds-on 1/2 (1.5) tournament favourite, Novak Djokovic.

Tim is a standout 14/1 for the upset today. That price is with Boylesports. Bet365 are 10/1. After what happened with Swiatek yesterday (that upset was a 4/1 shot), you can never rule anything out.

If Tim serves well again today – as he has been doing so far – then he can keep in touch with the reigning champ on the scoreboard today. And if it goes to a tiebreak or two, and/ or Djokovic has a bit of a blip, any injury problems, or a bad day at the office… then our man could spring an epic surprise here.

Odds of 7/4 (2.75) for Van Rijthoven To Win a Set may appeal to you today. Likewise, 2/1 (3.0) for there to be one of more Tiebreaks in the match (7-6 score).

For me, ever the aggressor, I’m taking a classic Ones to Watch underdog swing at the big price for Van Rijthoven to win the match. It might not be for everyone – but that’s how I play.

If our tournament rank outsider manages to beat one of the best players of all time today, then I don’t want to be kicking myself that I didn’t back him in the Match Winner market…


Ones to Watch picks – Wimbledon:

Match Winner:

  • Tim Van Rijthoven to beat Novak Djokovic – best price 14/1 Boylesports, 10/1 Bet365


Play starts on Centre Court from 1.30pm. Djokovic v Van Rijthoven is the third and final match scheduled, so they will probably be playing from 6pm+.

I’ll be back again at 8am tomorrow with your Wimbledon Day 8 email.

You can get in touch during the tournament by emailing me at:

Enjoy the tennis…

Best wishes,

Oliver Upstone

Tom Wilson

Ones to Watch