Tennis Betting Advice - July 2022
Wimbledon: Day 8 – 50/1 for this late bloomer…
Monday 4th July 2022
Welcome to Day 8 of your Wimbledon 2022 Daily Service…
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Jabeur and Niemeier roll on…
Tim Van Rijthoven gave a good account of himself on his Centre Court debut last night, including winning the second set against Novak Djokovic. Ultimately though, Novak was too good, with the odds-on men’s tournament favourite beating our rank outsider selection 6-2, 4-6, 6-1, 6-2.
Things went great for us in the women’s yesterday though, with our players Ons Jabeur and Jule Niemeier both winning in straight sets to progress to the quarter finals. Add in another big-name, short-price seed falling in that section of the draw, with Jelena Ostapenko knocked out by 500/1 pre-tournament underdog Tatjana Maria, and the women’s draw continues to be loaded with big-price promise.
We have two more players looking to reach the quarter finals today. Here are the players and prices in our Wimbledon 2022 Outright Winner book (original advised prices in brackets):
The time is now for this late bloomer…
So, we’ve got two of the last four in the bottom half of the women’s draw, with Jabeur and Niemeier both through to the quarters. In the top half, my aim today is to achieve the same…
That would involve world no.4 Paula Badosa overturning the match underdog odds to beat Simona Halep, who is the only former Grand Slam winner left in the draw. And my final Outright pick to add to the book today, PETRA MARTIC at 50/1, getting past the pre-match favourite Elena Rybakina…
Ahead of world no.1 and pre-tournament Wimbledon favourite Iga Swiatek being knocked out on Saturday, I thought I had made all my Outright Winner selections. But now opportunity knocks in both sides of the women’s draw, and there’s one further player & price that I’m adding to the book. With a real chance in my eyes of being a big-odds finalist next Sunday.
While the likes of Halep and Amanda Anisimova lurk in the 2nd Quarter of the draw at single figure prices, where we’re on Badosa. Quarter 1 in the top half in particular looks absolutely anyone's from here. Whoever can hold their nerve and take their opportunity. On the Monday schedule, the winner of Elena Rybakina v Petra Martic will face Alize Cornet or Alja Tomljanovic for a place in the semi finals...
Petra Martic at 50/1 and 40/1 is the one I like – the biggest price left in the women’s Outright Winner market as it stands this morning, with 12 players still in the hat.
I’ve backed the Croatian a few times at big odds in recent Grand Slams, identifying the 31-year-old as a late bloomer on the tour, with dark-horse potential to come good at a Major, relatively late in her career.
For example, I backed Martic at…
French Open 2021 at 150/1 (went out in 1st round)
US Open 2020 at 50/1 (reached Last 16)
During the French Open 2019 at 50/1 (reached quarter final)
Wimbledon 2019 at 75/1 (reached Last 16)
Petra flew largely under the radar in week one. I’ve been keeping an eye on her stats and results though – and I like what I see. Martic is yet to drop a set in the tournament, with three 2-0 wins in a row. She has now reached the Last 16 for the third time in her last five visits to SW19. That’s a noteworthy piece of form. And her serving stats are impressive, too…
While today’s tall opponent Elena Rybakina is the match favourite, and 14/1 for the trophy from here. Martic is breathing closely down the 23-year-old’s neck in several key performance areas. A statement backed up by the fact that the only previous meeting between these two was deciding by two tiebreak sets, 7-6, 7-6 in favour of the younger player (WTA Dubai 2020, hard courts).
Key serving stats from Wimbledon 2022 so far:
Aces: Rybakina 23, Martic 19
Fastest Serve: Rybakina 120 mph, Martic 116 mph
1st Serve Points Won: Rybakina 79%, Martic 79% (joint-top)
Martic’s stats are on a par with or only fractionally behind those of Rybakina. If the outright prices were the other way round, I'd be keen on Rybakina here. But while the Kazakh representative is today just 14/1 at best, Croatia's Martic can be backed at 50/1 and 40/1. Even with the now-reduced place terms of 1/3 odds Each Way for reaching the final, I still have the Croatian down as the underdog value here. This year’s Wimbledon looks destined to produce at least one big-odds finalist. I’d love us to be on them.
Martic is going in the Outright book this morning, with her match v Rybakina first on Court One, from 1pm.
In the match markets, rather than take 7/4 (2.75) for Martic to beat Rybakina. I’m looking to a couple of other stats-backed options with the potential to land us an odds-against payout or two from another strong serving performance today...
As I say, the only previous encounter between these two produced a 7-6, 7-6 score-line. And so far here at Wimbledon 2022, both women have been frequent flyers for tiebreaks:
The two match bets I’m targeting here are: Tiebreak in the Match (or Over 0.5 Tiebreaks), available at odds of 5/2 or 2/1. And at similar prices, Over 10.5 Games in the 1st Set – which pays out on a 7-5 or 7-6 score in the opener.
Elsewhere, if you want some real blockbuster prices, then take note of the Tiebreak Triumph market at Skybet: Martic to win every set 7-6 is 100/1, with Rybakina 80/1 for that combo.
Ones to Watch picks – Wimbledon:
Women’s Outright Winner (1/3 odds 1-2 places):
Elena Rybakina v Petra Martic:
I’ll be back at 8am tomorrow with your Wimbledon Day 9 email.
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Enjoy the tennis…