Tennis Betting Advice - July 2022
Wimbledon: Day 11 – Women’s Semi Finals…
Thursday 7th July 2022
Welcome to Day 11 of your Wimbledon 2022 Daily Service.
Edged out in five…
Good morning. The 3-2 Set Betting angle proved to be a worthwhile ‘saver’ option for the Fritz v Nadal match. And what a match it was.
Our 100/1 tournament outsider Taylor Fritz got himself two sets to one in front. That score-line would win an ATP Tour (best-of-three-sets) match. But as we discussed yesterday, this is a Grand Slam – and it’s best-of-five.
Despite being seemingly injured and in pain, Rafael Nadal once again broke the heart of one of the young guns. With the remarkable 36-year-old adding 24-year-old Fritz to his list of 3-2 victims in the Slams this season. A list that includes five-set epics against Next Gen names Denis Shapovalov, Daniil Medvedev, and Felix Auger-Aliassime.
Rafa beat Fritz, 3-6, 7-5, 3-6, 7-5, 7-6. Losing in a final-set tiebreak: you can’t get much closer than that.
When the likes of Nadal and Novak Djokovic eventually retire, men’s Majors are going to become fascinatingly wide-open. I often oppose the Big Four on the grounds of price. But while the legends are still playing, we should take the odd moment to acknowledge just how amazing their achievements have been.
As I said before, after winning Indian Wells for us at giant odds earlier this season, Fritz owes us nothing. He gave his all. Reaching the quarter finals at Wimbledon for the first time in his career, that’s a heck of a run for a 100/1 shot.
We emerge empty-handed from that men’s Outright Winner bet, then. Although a payout from yesterday’s Set Betting Yankee helped soften the blow a little. Along with Nadal winning 3-2 at 5/1, Elena Rybakina won 2-1 v Alja Tomljanovic in the women’s quarter finals, at odds of 16/5. That double produced very nice odds of 24/1. However, tiny stakes meant the return was nothing exceptional.
Explaining tennis to my friend Dave…
We will go again with the likes of Fritz and other young, upcoming players in the future. That’s how we play here at Ones to Watch. I watched yesterday’s match with my friend Dave in a pub garden. I had to politely ask for Wimbledon to be shown on one of the screens. It seems most of the other drinkers were more interested in the cricket.
Dave isn’t a betting man, and he doesn’t follow tennis, either. A good explainer for my service, then. I told him that at the start of the tournament, Nadal was 7/1, and Fritz was 100/1. Dave got my point. He’d already heard of Nadal. He’d never heard of Fritz. But he saw just how close the underdog came to reaching the semi finals.
Women’s Semi Finals today…
Moving on to today’s Wimbledon schedule, it’s the Women’s Semi Finals…
We’re all about Ons Jabeur here. Our early-bird Wimbledon 2022 pick is our last player standing. The world no.2 is up against her friend, world no.103 Tatjana Maria. When you consider some of the names that Jabeur could’ve faced for a place in the final, then with all due respect to Maria, we’d have to take this draw.
As discussed in yesterday’s email, we’re on the big favourite in this match. With Jabeur backed at 40/1 and 33/1 back in April, at Each Way terms of 1/2 odds for 1-2 places. A win for Ons today would book us in for a place payout on Saturday – with a big one riding on the final.
Youth v Experience…
Jabeur v Maria is the first match on Centre Court, from 1.30pm. Followed by the second women’s semi final, Elena Rybakina v Simona Halep…
Halep has been in ruthless form, winning all five matches without dropping a set. The 2019 Wimbledon champion has been here and done it before at Grand Slam level. In comparison, this is a maiden Slam semi final for 23-year-old Rybakina.
While the 30-year-old Halep brings all the experience, fans of the younger player can point to the fact that Rybakina has pushed Simona close in their two previous battles. With Halep coming out a two-sets-to-one winner at the US Open last year, and also in Dubai in 2020. Both of those matches featured a tiebreak set, and if we see some more impressive serving this afternoon, then another 7-6 set score might be on the cards. Although no-one has come that close to Halep on the scoreboard so far.
While Rybakina is short odds-on to hit the Most Aces v Halep today, at 1/4 (1.25) with Bet365. The Most Double Faults market is priced as 50-50, and I’m with the youngster in this department:
Rybakina Double Faults so far: 15
Halep Double Faults so far: 10
If we turn those totals into Double Faults per Set, then the averages show why the bookies have this market neck-and-neck. With 11 sets played, Rybakina’s average is 1.36 Double Faults per Set. While Halep’s 10 sets and 10 Double Faults comes out as a straight one-per-set average.
Both previous meetings have ended 5-5 on the Double Faults tally. I think today’s setting plays the biggest part though, with Rybakina the more likely to suffer from an attack of the nerves in this massive semi final match. Halep builds more safety into her shots, and that diligence can help the Romanian keep a lid on her own Double Faults tally this afternoon.
If the underdog does indeed make a shaky start, then rather than a narrow 7-6 tiebreak score, we could see a bit of daylight on the scoreboard. An early break or two could see Halep land a 1st Set score-line of 6-3, which is her average set score at Wimbledon 2022.
This is by no means an exact science of course, as who wins the toss and serves first will have an impact on what ‘shape’ the first set takes. Top prices of 13/2 (7.5) and 11/2 (6.5) are particularly good with me though, and a decent angle to snag an appealing price in this match.
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Ones to Watch picks – Wimbledon:
Elena Rybakina v Simona Halep
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Jabeur v Maria is at 1.30pm. Followed by Rybakina v Halep.
I’ll be back tomorrow morning with your Day 12 email.
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Enjoy the tennis…
Best wishes,
Tom Wilson