Tennis Betting Advice - July 2022
Ones to Watch this week at 20/1…
Monday 11th July 2022
They might still be picking the Pimm’s cups and strawberry boxes off Henman Hill, but the tennis tours roll on today…
The international ATP and WTA circuits resume, with four tournaments starting today and running throughout the week:
WTA 250 Budapest – Hungarian Grand Prix – Clay
WTA 250 Lausanne – Ladies' Open Lausanne – Clay
ATP 250 Bastad – Nordea Open – Clay
ATP 250 Newport – Infosys Hall of Fame Open – Grass
Ones to Watch this week at 20/1…
ATP Newport is the last grass-court event of the season. It’s a historic venue, with Rhode Island the original home of the US National Lawn Championships in 1881 – an event which eventually became what we now know as the US Open. This is the only non-European tournament played on grass.
Despite the history, as the current Hall of Fame Open, there’s never been a Top 10 player in the field until now. World no.9 Felix Auger-Aliassime is the top seed, and goes off as the 15/4 (4.75) favourite.
As a 250-grade event, a field of lower-ranked players is to be expected. The sliding scale goes from 250, to 500, to ‘Masters’ 1000 events – and then the four Grand Slams. However, there are plenty of recognisable names here this week. Andy Murray, for one. He’s around 6/1, with BetVictor going 8/1.
Eight of the last 12 Newport champions have been Americans. Four of those crowns went to John Isner. The 6’10” American, who is now 37 years old, last lifted the trophy in 2019. Isner is second-favourite this week at 5/1 (6.0) in general, and 11/2 (6.5) with Bet365.
There’s also the fatigue factor to consider here. Anyone who had a long visit at Wimbledon last week will have had to hop on a plane to the States pretty sharpish. Even if you’re going on holiday, that journey can take it out of you a bit…
One case in point would be Max Purcell. The 24-year-old Australian had some epic matches at SW19. He won the Men’s Doubles alongside Matthew Ebden, with the Aussie duo putting together a dream run to the title, saving multiple match points along the way, with five of their six matches going the distance to a final set – including both the semi final and the final. In the Singles, Max lost in a five-set battle with Adrian Mannarino. Purcell will face the Frenchman again in the 1st round in Newport tomorrow. After all of Max’s energy-sapping endeavours at Wimbledon, it’s no wonder Mannarino is the 1/3 (1.33) favourite to beat him.
Two other names well worth a mention from our recent grass-court picks. Maxime Cressy was a 40/1 Each Way runner-up for us at ATP Eastbourne the week before Wimbledon. Tim Van Rijthoven was a 100/1+ outsider for us at Wimbledon, reaching the Last 16 on his debut, where there was no shame in losing 3-1 to the eventual champion, Novak Djokovic.
At the end of his 2nd round defeat in London, Cressy was furious with himself, shouting at his box and declaring that after the match, he was going to be ‘done’ with tennis. Once he cooled off, he must’ve changed his mind. The American lines up here in Newport, priced at 9/1 and 8/1 for the title.
The 4th seed here, Cressy has a Bye through to round two, where his opponent is likely to be Van Ritjhoven. And that’s the problem for me here. The Dutchman is 8/1 – 6/1 for the trophy. But only one of those two guys can make it through to the quarter finals. If I had to pick one of the two, if would be Tim. Although students of the formbook will note that the head-to-head is 1-0 to Maxime Cressy.
I’m going instead for two players at bigger prices, both of whom have shown some promising form on grass this summer…
Sock and Bonzi appeal at the prices…
Last year we had both finalists here in Newport. Kevin Anderson won the tournament at 7/1, with Ones to Watch youngster Jenson Brooksby reaching his first ATP final, as a 20/1 Each Way pick.
This week I’m going for one player from each side of the draw again. Unlike the Cressy/ Van Rijthoven dilemma, these two can’t meet each other until the final…
In the top half, the underdog I like is JACK SOCK. As an American, he ticks the Newport Hall of Fame box. Last year, he made the quarter finals, with eventual champ Anderson requiring the full three sets to beat him. Previously, Sock has reached the semi finals on two occasions here.
On the 2022 form, Jack catches the eye on grass right now, with a won 12 lost 3 match win record this summer. That includes a semi final at the lower-tier ATP Challenger in Nottingham at the start of June, followed by a run to the final at the Ilkley Challenger the week after (runner-up). Sock then blazed through Wimbledon Qualifying without losing a set, winning a total of five matches in a row at the All England Club to reach the 3rd round proper – including that victory over Cressy.
Clearly, Sock has the game for grass. With a big serve setting up the points for him, and a nice array of groundstrokes to go with it. On his latest comeback from injury, the 29-year-old looks extremely motivated. I’m sure his goal is to win another title. He hasn’t lifted a Singles trophy on the main ATP Tour since 2017. This grass-court event in the USA looks a good place for him to make that happen.
Alexander Bublik is a potential opponent here. Another big server, albeit a somewhat erratic one. Bublik is 8/1 or the trophy. He’s made the semi final and final on his last two visits to Newport. However, the head-to-head is 1-0 to Sock (US Open last season). And at odds of 22/1 and 20/1, Jack is my price pick here.
In the bottom half of the draw, BENJAMIN BONZI is an improving player that I’m keen to follow right now. The Frenchman has just broken into the world’s Top 50 for the first time. Going 6-3 on grass this summer, including a semi-final run at ATP Mallorca – where it took world no.4 Stefanos Tsitsipas to stop him. As discussed, there’s no-one ranked that high here in Newport this week, and top seed Auger-Aliassime is in the opposite side of the draw.
The 26-year-old is looking to reach a first ATP final. A 250-grade event like this would appear to be the perfect setting. There have been seven first-time champions on the ATP Tour this season – and six of them have come at 250 events. Bonzi is one to watch this week at 25/1.
Baez in Bastad…
There’s one more man I want to follow in today’s day-one tournament markets, and that’s SEBASTIAN BAEZ at ATP Bastad. The 21-year-old Argentinean is another improving youngster on the tour. As you might expect from a South American, clay is his best surface. So far in his young pro career, Sebastian has a 71% match win record on clay.
2022 is proving to be a breakout year for Baez. He’s up to a career-high of no.34 in the world – and can go higher. Seb made his first ATP final in February, finishing runner-up in Santiago as an 8/1 shot. Before lifting his maiden trophy in April, winning Estoril at 16/1. Both were ATP 250 events on clay, as is this one…
Players from his part of the world have done well here at Bastad before. With fellow Argentinean Carlos Berlocq winning here in Sweden in 2013, Uruguay’s Pablo Cuevas prevailing in 2014, and Chile’s Nicolas Jarry taking the honours in 2019.
In the bottom half of the draw this week, Baez avoids reigning Bastad champion Casper Ruud. Odds of 20/1 appeal for this youngster, who looks set to become a regular contender at clay-courts events like these.
Ones to Watch picks:
Outright Winner – Each Way (1/2 odds 1-2 places):
ATP Newport – Infosys Hall of Fame Open
ATP Bastad – Nordea Open
Play starts at 4pm (UK time) in Newport, USA. And at 12 noon for Bastad. Bookies take down their Outright Winner markets during the day’s play.
I’m taking a few days off this week. Next week, we will have four more tournaments to shoot at.
Enjoy the sunshine – and enjoy the tennis…