Mardy Fish is back - and he's 2,500/1...

Tuesday 19th July 2022

Remember Mardy Fish?

Ten years ago, Mardy was a Top 10 player…

In 2012, the American reached the Last 16 of the US Open, where he was due to play Roger Federer. But the match never happened. Fish withdrew at the last minute. The story behind that intriguing sequence of events is explored in the excellent Netflix documentary, Untold: Breaking Point.

Diagnosed with a heart condition and severe anxiety disorder, Fish went on to play just 16 more professional matches, before retiring from tennis in 2015.

Mardy Fish is back…

These days, I’m happy to report that age 40, Mardy is doing well. He’s still keeping himself in shape. Swapping the tennis bag for a set of golf clubs, and with some considerable success. Yes, Mardy Fish is back…

Golfing legend Jack Nicklaus has described Fish as ‘the best non-professional golfer’ he’s ever seen play. High praise indeed. Mardy has won several titles on the celebrity golf circuit, including three victories at the annual Hilton Grand Vacations event.

This week, the PGA Tour have granted Fish an exemption (similar to a tennis ‘wild card’) into the 3M Open at the TPC Twin Cities course. Born in Edina, Minneapolis, Mardy will be right at home here.

As a non-pro, it’s no surprise to see the ex-tennis star right down the betting list for this PGA Tour event. Bet365 have Fish as stone last in their Outright Winner market for the 3M Open, at 2,500/1.

Even an optimistic outsider-backer like me can’t make a case for the fairy-tale win here. But after we struck gold at The Open last week, I am continuing my foray into the golfing world today…

Playing with the house money…

Thanks for all your emails yesterday. It was great to find out that so many of you backed Cameron Smith to win The Open last weekend. 25/1 seems to be the general price that you got on at. Great stuff.

Some members have even – half tongue-in-cheek, I’m sure – suggested that Ones to Watch branches out to be a tennis AND golf service. Let’s not get carried away with one good result. I don’t claim to know any more about golf than what you see in these recent articles. But I’m certainly interested in the outright markets for golf tournaments as, like the tennis, they often throw up big-odds winners – as well as plenty of Each Way opportunities…

After that big win at St Andrews, we’re playing with the house money right now. I’ve done my research, and I’ve got some notes for the 3M Open, which starts on Thursday.

With that Mardy Fish tennis/ golf story setting the scene nicely, how about we put together some more connections…

Can a Cameron win again?

Two words to keep in mind here, alongside what I’m about to say (!):

• Apophenia: the tendency to perceive meaningful connections between unrelated things, or see patterns in random data

• Synchronicity: the simultaneous occurrence of events which appear significantly related but have no discernible causal connection

In last week’s email, we talked about our ante-post (tennis) bet on Cameron Norrie as an outside chance for this summer’s US Open. The same article contained the info regarding Cameron Smith for The Open golf…

Smith won The Open, and another Cameron, Cameron Young, finished in 2nd place, just a shot behind.

And if we take a little look at this week’s 3M Open golf, the name Cameron pops up again…

Cameron Champ is the reigning 3M Open ‘champ.’ The American won here last year, having missed the cut in four of his five PGA events in the run-up. He arrives at the TPC Twin Cities club in an even worse vein of form this time, having failed to make the cut in his last five tournaments. Defending the title looks to be a mammoth task. He’s 66/1 at best, and 50/1 and 40/1 in general. I find it hard to make a case other than that he pulled off a surprise win here last season (and that he’s called Cameron, of course…).

Back in the here and now. Unearthing a few ‘formbook nuggets’ served us well last week. Here’s what I’ve found this time:

• Cameron Tringale caught my eye in Scotland recently. The week before St Andrews, the American posted a Top 5 finish at the Scottish Open (T4). At the 3M Open last year, Tringale was leading after the first three rounds. He fell away on the final day, finishing in a tie for 16th place, on -9. The year before, he carded 16 under for a tie of 3rd place, just three shots off the winner

With confidence coursing through us after last weekend’s success, and 40/1 Ons Jabeur finishing runner-up at Wimbledon the weekend before. I’m going for another Outright Winner pick today, with a 28/1 Each Way shot for the 3M Open:

• Cameron Tringale is a top-price 28/1 with William Hill and Skybet, and 25/1 with Betfred, Boylesports, Paddy Power & Betfair Sportsbook, Ladbrokes & Coral. Those firms all offer Each Way terms of 8 places at 1/5 odds

And given his good performances at this venue in the last two years, the 1st Round Leader market also appeals for Cameron T to make a fast start on Thursday:

• Tringale is 40/1 to be the 1st Round Leader, with Boylesports offering industry-best Each Way terms of 7 places at 1/5 odds. 40/1 is also available with Skybet, Unibet, and Betway – with 6 places Each Way

P.S

Back on the day job, I’m focusing on the WTA Palermo tennis in Italy this week. We’ve got two Each Way picks in the tournament market, as well as half-a-dozen match selections for this afternoon. If you’re already a member, you can log-in now to catch up on this morning’s email. And if you’re not a member yet, find out more about Ones to Watch and get in on the action here.

Enjoy the tennis – and the golf…

Best wishes,

Tom Wilson

Ones to Watch