Tennis Betting Advice - July 2023
Wimbledon Day 6: Centre Court popcorn - and a 120/1 combo...
Saturday 8th July 2023
Welcome to your Wimbledon 2023 Daily Service - Day 6…
I’m being reintroduced to society today…
My mother-in-law has come down to help with the baby. Freeing me up to go to Wimbledon…
The Centre Court schedule looks appetising. I’ll be reaching for the popcorn (and Pimm’s) to take in this exciting line-up:
I believe I’m in Row Z. So my chances of appearing on TV are slim. And if you hear someone ironically shouting ‘Come on Tim!’ - I can guarantee you that won’t be me…
With the chance to see young world no.1 Carlos Alcaraz take on the big-serving Nicolas Jarry… as well as two of my favourite women’s players, Ons Jabeur and Bianca Andreescu… followed by British no.1 Katie Boulter taking on the defending Wimbledon champion Elena Rybakina…
A good day out should be in store…
Alcaraz v Jarry a lunchtime treat…
On the betting front, one angle that jumps out for me is for a Tiebreak in the Alcaraz-Jarry match.
We recently backed the 6’6” Chilean at big odds at the French Open. After reaching the 4th round in Paris, which was his best ever result in a Grand Slam. Jarry is now through to the 3rd round of Wimbledon for the first time, and up to a new career-best ranking of no.28 in the world.
The 27-year-old is ranked 7th for the Most Aces during this first week of the Wimbledon men’s event. Including a whopping tally of 30 aces in the last round. Bet365 make Jarry a 10/1 shot to repeat that 30+ aces score today.
If he can maintain that level of out-of-a-tree serving with the Centre Court spotlight on him this afternoon, then Nicolas can trouble young superstar Carlos by keeping it close on the scoreboard…
To show the level of mismatch on the betting front here, Alcaraz is 3/1 to win the whole tournament… while Jarry more than twice those odds at 7/1, just to win this one match.
A Tiebreak, 7-6 set or two is my pick here. Once again, Oddschecker frustrates us, failing to list the ‘Tiebreak in the Match’ market as I search online first thing this morning. Manually visiting the main bookies’ websites, I can tell you that:
Bet365 are odds-on at 4/7 (1.57) for ‘Over 0.5 Tiebreak in the Match,’ with Unibet at 3/4 (1.75). While a Tiebreak is 5/6 (1.83) with Skybet, 3/5 (1.6) with Betway and William Hill.
The one previous meeting between these two took place on clay earlier this season, with Alcaraz coming from behind to win 6-7, 7-5, 6-0. A repeat of the underdog Jarry edging the first set on a tiebreak is a 9/1 shot. Carlos made a few unforced errors in yesterday’s match, and a slow or less-than-scintillating start is not out of the question today.
There are various other options to consider, including a 1st Set Tiebreak at 3/1, or Jarry to win the 1st Set…
Or how about Skybet’s ‘Tiebreak Triumph’ market, which offers 150/1 for Alcaraz to win in three tiebreak sets, 7-6, 7-6, 7-6. With the Chilean at 250/1 for that whopper.
Alternatively, you could look to go high in the Total Games market, for the 1st Set or for the match overall, relying on a strong serving day from Jarry.
All told, I make 9/1 for Jarry 7-6 in the 1st Set Correct Score betting a decent underdog proposition for this opening match on Centre Court (1.30pm). As well as taking the first set 7-6 in his prior meeting with world no.1 Alcaraz, the tall Chilean also landed this bet on grass v world no.5 Stefanos Tsitsipas last month.
120/1 for three 2-1 thrillers…
Elsewhere on what’s set to be an entertaining Middle Saturday at the All England Club, I’m going for one of my favourite big-odds, small-stakes angles in the women’s game. Splitting a stake four ways across this 2-1 Set Betting score Trixie. A bet that comprises three doubles, and a 120/1 treble…
All the players involved have a knack of getting into rollercoaster matches…
These prices are from William Hill. Set Betting markets are available with most bookmakers.
Set Betting:
Beatriz Haddad Maia to win 2-1 v Sorana Cirstea @ 10/3 (4.33)
Time: approx. 11am
Marta Kostyuk to win 2-1 v Madison Keys @ 6/1 (7.0)
Time: approx. 1pm
Anastasia Potapova to win 2-1 v Mirra Andreeva @ 3/1 (4.0)
Time: approx. 2.30pm
Six in the book…
And finally for this morning. A reminder of the six players we have running for us at big Each Way prices in the Outright Winner markets:
Women:
Anastasia Potapova
Ekaterina Alexandrova
Petra Kvitova
Marie Bouzkova
Men:
Holger Rune (now bumped from 50/1 to 66/1 with Bet365 and Unibet)
Frances Tiafoe (still available at 100/1 Skybet)
Ones to Watch picks - Wimbledon:
See above for full details
Carlos Alcaraz v Nicolas Jarry:
Women’s matches today:
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Play starts from 11am.
I’ll be back at 8am Sunday with your Day 7 email.
P.S
Want to get in touch? Email me at: oliver.upstone@oxonpress.co.uk
Enjoy the tennis…
Best wishes,
Oliver Upstone