Tennis Betting Advice - July 2023

Wimbledon Day 7: Guarantee a place in the quarter finals...

Sunday 9th July 2023

Welcome to your Wimbledon 2023 Daily Service - Day 7…

Yesterday’s analysis pinpointed a Tiebreak in the Alcaraz-Jarry match. But my quest for a big price saw my 9/1 angle land in the wrong set…

While a Tiebreak in the Match was odds-on with the bookies offering that market. I plumped instead for a more speculative price on Nicolas Jarry to win the 1st Set by the 7-6 score. Sod’s Law then, that the Chilean underdog instead won the 2nd Set on a Tiebreak, 7-6…

Carlos Alcaraz went on to win the four-hour contest, 6-3, 6-7, 6-3, 7-5. I can now say I’ve seen the 20-year-old world no.1 play in real life. The view from my Centre Court seat was actually better than it looks. And certainly better than ‘Row ZE’ sounds on paper!

Centre Court View

Rain stopped play more than once yesterday. Including what seemed an unnecessarily long delay to close the roof back up and dry out the courts, at a crucial stage in the final set of Ons Jabeur’s comeback victory against Bianca Andreescu. A series of events which my friend described as ‘good old English faffing about.’

What did we learn from Ons Jabeur’s performance yesterday? For me, that flat first set, followed by a creditable 3-6, 6-3, 6-4 comeback, franks what I already suspected. Last year’s beaten finalist is good enough to win the title, but it might be the case than Ons wants it too much. Nerves and pressure were on show. Let’s see what comes next…

Other notes from Day 6 at Wimbledon:

  • Talking of Tiebreaks, Chris Eubanks won 3 of them in a row yesterday. With a 7-6, 7-6, 7-6 win extending his grass-court winning streak to 8 matches, with the 6'7'' American piling down 27 aces. Putting him top of the Wimbledon 2023 Most Aces chart as it stands, ahead of the knocked-out Jarry. The next-best player on the Aces list & still in the tournament is Hubert Hurkacz - the 2021 semi-finalist takes on seven-time champion Novak Djokovic this evening

Ones to Watch member Steve T writes in to highlight the form of Chris Eubanks:

“What a powerhouse he is … maybe one to watch, what do you think?”

I agree with you, Steve. We backed Eubanks as a 33/1 outsider at the ATP San Diego event last September…. and he promptly lost in the 1st round. Chris was ranked no.135 in the world back then. Now up to a new career-high ranking of no.43, the 27-year-old from Atlanta, Georgia won his first ATP title last month, on the grass in Mallorca.

On Day 1 of Wimbledon last week, Eubanks went off as a 500/1 rank outsider. He’s now 125/1 at Skybet and 100/1 with BetVictor, Paddy Power & Betfair Sportsbook. Through to the Last 16 of a Grand Slam for the first time, he’ll take on Stefanos Tsitsipas tomorrow for a place in the quarter finals.

  • In that top half of the men’s draw, we’re on 20-year-old Holger Rune as a Ones to Watch prospect at 50/1. The young Dane can be backed at 66/1 today with Skybet, Unibet, Paddy Power & Betfair Sportsbook. It seems I fancy his chances more than the bookies do…

As with already-at-the-top 20-year-old Alcaraz, world no.6 Rune should be regarded as the real deal. He has that X Factor you need to make big wins and special things happen.

Yesterday, Holger came from behind to win his 3rd-round test, saving two match points. When he won the Paris Masters for us last autumn, the young Dane saved a match point in the early rounds. When Alcaraz won his maiden Grand Slam title at the US Open last year, the Spanish wonderkid also saved a match point enroute…

Rune’s match win-loss record on grass this season now stands at 7-1. In the next round, he’ll take on either Grigor Dimitrov, or our other big-odds pick, Frances Tiafoe. Those two resume today, with Tiafoe trailing the Bulgarian by two sets to nil. It’s never over til it’s over…

In the women’s event, Saturday was a good day for two of our tournament selections:

  • 25/1 Petra Kvitova won in straight sets, and is through to the Last 16 for the 7th time in her illustrious Wimbledon career. She’ll take on Jabeur tomorrow; in the early prices the bookies make Petra the slight favourite to win that one

  • 50/1 Ekaterina Alexandrova was also a straight-sets winner in the 3rd round. On Monday, the Russian will face one of the biggest tests in tennis right now: the power of Aryna Sabalenka. The positive for underdog backers like you & I being that Alexandrova holds a 3-2 head-to-head record over the Belarusian. Including a win on grass last summer

Our two 100/1+ picks play today…

We have 22-year-old Ones to Watch name Anastasia Potapova taking on 16-year-old fellow Russian, Mirra Andreeva, in a rain-delayed 3rd-round encounter. The head-to-head is 1-0 to Potapova.

And in an all-Czech meeting between two 24-year-olds, Marie Bouzkova plays Marketa Vondrousova in the Last 16, with a place in the quarter finals up for grabs. The head-to-head is 2-1 to Vondrousova. Play starts at 11am…

  • If you wanted to cover both of our players’ opponents today, Bet365 is the place to go for the best Outright Winner prices. With Vondrousova at 40/1 (33/1 and 30/1 elsewhere). And teenager Andreeva at 150/1, while other firms are 50/1, with Unibet in-between at 90/1

Of those two, the enigmatic Vondrousova is the one I’m most keen to add to the book today…

Marketa reached the French Open final for us as a 40/1 Each Way pick back in 2019. And with the victor of today’s match set to take on Jessica Pegula or underdog Lesia Tsurenko in the quarter finals, we have a situation where I’d fancy the winner of Vondrousova-Bouzkova to have a good chance of coming through that and progressing to the semi-finals as a surprise package. I’ve seen Pegula stumble (choke?) one too many times in big quarter-finals.

Let’s add Vondrousova at 40/1 or 33/1 as one of our dark-horse selections. If she gets as far as meeting tournament favourite Swiatek in the semis, it would be their first encounter on grass - and the in-form Czech left-hander has a tricky game that can make life uncomfortable for anyone…

  • If you’re already on Bouzkova at big prices in the Outright market, then adding Vondrousova today will guarantee you a player in the quarter finals



Ones to Watch picks - Wimbledon:

See above for full details

Women’s Outright Winner - Each Way (1/2 odds 1-2 places):

  • Marketa Vondrousova @ 40/1 Bet365, 33/1 Skybet, William Hill, BetVictor, Betfred, 30/1 Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook, Unibet


Play starts from 11am.

I’ll be back at 8am Monday with your Day 8 email.

  • You can view every email in the archive on our members-only website here

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Enjoy the tennis…

Best wishes,

Tom Wilson

Oliver Upstone

Ones to Watch