Wimbledon Day 8: Tiebreak Tennis - and a giant Yankee...

Monday 10th July 2023

Wimbledon 2023 Daily Service - Day 8

Good morning. There are 12 players left in the women’s draw, and we’re on three of them…

Petra Kvitova @ 25/1, 22/1, 20/1 - plays in 4th round today

Ekaterina Alexandrova @ 50/1, 40/1 - plays in 4th round today

Marketa Vondrousova @ 40/1, 33/1 - plays in quarter finals tomorrow

In the Outright Winner market, we backed those ladies with Each Way terms of 1/2 odds for 1-2 places. With week two starting today and just a dozen names left in the draw - from 128 competitors at the off - bookies have now shifted the revised market to reduced Each Way terms of 1/3 odds for reaching the final.

All that is, apart from William Hill, Unibet & BetUK, who are sticking to the standard 1/2 odds terms as I write. If you’re not on our picks as of yet, the top Each Way prices to take with those firms ahead of today’s play are: Kvitova 12/1 William Hill, Alexandrova 30/1 Unibet & BetUK - and Vondrousova at a standout 50/1 with William Hill.

They’re all tough matches from here on…

World no.42 Vondrousova plays world no.4 Jessica Pegula
World no.9 Kvitova takes on no.6 Ons Jabeur in a Top 10 clash
And no.22 Alexandrova faces world no.2 Aryna Sabalenka

On the head-to-head front, Kvitova (4-1) and Alexandrova (3-2) carry positive records against today’s respective opponents. While Vondrousova v Pegula will be their first meeting.

• In the men’s, we have Holger Rune taking on Grigor Dimitrov in the 4th round today, looking to reach a first Wimbledon quarter final. Rune was advised at 50/1 or 40/1 Each Way on 7th July, and was also available at 66/1 with a couple of firms a day or two after. The bookies have 20-year-old Rune as the match underdog this afternoon, but I have the top-quality youngster ahead in the mental-strength department in a big-match setting. Age 32, Dimitrov is playing well, but has wilted under pressure more times than not over the years. This will be their first meeting. Should be a good one… 

Tiebreak Tennis…

We talked about tiebreaks at the weekend. Novak Djokovic leads Hubert Hurkacz 7-6, 7-6 from Sunday night. And I think we’ll see a few more 7-6 sets in today’s men’s matches…

Chris Eubanks v Stefanos Tsitsipas

Daniil Medvedev v Jiri Lehecka

Grigor Dimitrov v Holger Rune

Carlos Alcaraz v Matteo Berrettini

Recent score-lines include the big-serving Eubanks winning 7-6, 7-6, 7-6 in the last round. The American takes on Tsitsipas today, with the Greek star playing out a tiebreak in seven of the 13 sets he’s played so far in this tournament…

Rune has had a tiebreak in all three of his matches. And has a formidable winning record when it comes to the crunch - coming out on top in eight of the last nine tiebreaks that he’s played…

Lehecka’s 3rd-round match saw three of the five sets settled by the 7-6 score…

While the one previous Grand Slam encounter between Alcaraz and Berrettini at last year’s Australian Open went to five sets, with two of them settled by a tiebreak. Over the weekend here at Wimbledon, Matteo beat Alex Zverev 6-3, 7-6, 7-6. While Carlos has prevailed in a tiebreak set in each of the past two rounds.

With a dry and sunny day forecast, and a week’s play in the courts, conditions could suit the big servers today…

‘Tiebreak in the Match: Yes’ is an odds-on favourite in all four of today’s men’s matches. With the four-fold acca paying just over 2/1 (3.0+) with William Hill and Skybet. This bet is called ‘Over 0.5 Tiebreaks’ with Bet365.

With a strong day of serving potentially in store, you could also look to the ‘Over’ options in the Total Games markets, both with the fixed-odds bookies, or the spread betting firms (Sporting Index, SpreadEx). As well as the prices for 1st Set/ 2nd Set Tiebreaks (etc), also available in-play.

In the big-odds department, Skybet’s ‘Tiebreak Triumph’ market is worth a look. With these prices available for each player to win their respective match via a straight-sets 7-6, 7-6, 7-6 score-line…

Eubanks 80/1, Tsitsipas 33/1
Medvedev 150/1, Lehecka 250/1
Dimitrov 150/1, Rune 200/1
Alcaraz 66/1, Berrettini 100/1

And for some seriously massive prices, it’s not beyond the realms of possibility that we could see a stack of long, five-set battles today…

With the 3-2 Set Betting score for the underdog being simultaneously the most eye-catching and most-likely way that the outsiders might get past the favourites here…

Eubanks to win 3-2 @ 8/1
Lehecka to win 3-2 @ 11/1
Rune to win 3-2 @ 13/2
Berrettini to win 3-2 @ 15/2

The advice here is to play small stakes at big prices…

For example, 0.5 point each on those four 3-2 underdog results as singles. And splitting a stake 11 ways across a Yankee, which consists of six doubles, four trebles, and a four-fold acca (eg. 0.1 pt per line = 1.1 pt stake on the Yankee).

The full-house acca is worth a champagne-party 6,884/1 at the best odds with QuinnBet and BetGoodwin - little-known firms who are now listed on Oddschecker. And well over 3,000/1 with the likes of Unibet, William Hill, Betfred, Boylesports, and BetVictor.

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Ones to Watch picks - Wimbledon:

See above for full details

Men’s matches today (scheduled for 12 noon and after):

• ACCA. Tiebreak in the Match: Yes in the 4 matches listed above @ 9/4 (3.25) William Hill, Bet365, 2/1 (3.0) Skybet

• YANKEE. Set Betting: Eubanks 3-2, Lehecka 3-2, Rune 3-2, Berrettini 3-2. Best prices QuinnBet and BetGoodwin, as listed above

• SINGLES. Set Betting: Eubanks 3-2, Lehecka 3-2, Rune 3-2, Berrettini 3-2. Best prices QuinnBet and BetGoodwin, as listed above

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I’ll be back on Tuesday morning with your Day 9 email.

• You can view every email in the archive on our members-only website here

P.S
Want to get in touch? Email me at: oliver.upstone@oxonpress.co.uk

Enjoy the tennis…

Best wishes,

Oliver Upstone

Ones to Watch