Tennis Betting Advice - July 2023

Wimbledon Day 12: Men's semi-final picks at 13/1...

Friday 14th July 2023

Wimbledon 2023 Daily Service - Day 12

Rarely am I happy to be wrong…

But I called yesterday’s first women’s semi-final as a three-setter - only for Marketa Vondrousova to get the job done in two.

Our player moves through to the final at odds of 40/1 or 33/1 Each Way.

I was right about it getting nervy, though…

If Vondrousova’s match against Elina Svitolina had gone all the way to three sets, I think I’d have been clawing out what’s left of my hair. Our Ones to Watch pick had sprinted into a 6-3, 4-0 lead, but had to pull through a wobble in the second set. Marketa twice threw in double faults when serving with a point to make it 5-0. In the end, it didn’t matter. With the Czech player closing it out, 6-3, 6-3.

Double faults are a key sign of nerves though. In the day’s second semi final - which did go to the anticipated full three sets, and also featured a tiebreak set. Aryna Sabalenka served a double fault in the second set to give Ons Jabeur what turned out to be a crucial window back into the match. Not long before, Sabalenka had been 7-6, 4-2 up. Jabeur came back to win, 6-7, 6-4, 6-3.

For the second round running, and the third time in six matches this fortnight, Jabeur came from a set down to win. Is her name destined to go on the trophy? Or will the pressure finally catch up with the Tunisian in the final? We’ll find out on Saturday afternoon…

Last year we went into the Wimbledon championship match with Jabeur in the book as a 40/1 Each Way early-bird pick. This time we have another 40/1 outsider carrying our cash as an in-form outsider. Not many will be cheering for Vondrousova other than us. Always one for the underdog, that’s fine by me…

  • World no.42 Vondrousova becomes the first unseeded women’s finalist at Wimbledon for 60 years, and one of only a handful of left-handers in the Open era. The BBC has described the Czech player’s run as ‘probably the biggest Wimbledon surprise since Eugenie Bouchard reached the 2014 final.’ We were on Bouchard that year, too (at 50/1 Each Way)...

Men’s Semi Finals today…

The headline action today is all about the men’s semis. With the Centre Court schedule kicking off from 1.30pm:

Jannik Sinner v Novak Djokovic

Followed by:

Carlos Alcaraz v Daniil Medvedev

Unlike in the women’s event, where the Vondrousova-Svitolina semi final saw two 100/1+ pre-tournament underdogs vying for a place in the title match - and the Top 3 of Iga Swiatek, Elena Rybakina, and Aryna Sabalenka are all now knocked-out. The men’s tournament has so far produced fewer surprises…

The top four in the Day 1 betting have all made it to the final four…

Jannik Sinner will be making his Grand Slam semi-final debut this afternoon, but the 21-year-old Italian is no.8 in the world, and went off last week as an 18/1 third-favourite in the Outright Winner market. Behind no.2 Novak Djokovic, who was odds-on at 8/13 (1.62) at best, and world no.1 Carlos Alcaraz at 7/2 (4.5). World no.3 Daniil Medvedev started the event at 20/1.

While today sees the first Wimbledon semi finals for Sinner, Alcaraz, and Medvedev - seven-time champion Djokovic will be making his 12th appearance in the SW19 semis.

There’s a little bit of previous Wimbledon form in the head-to-heads for today’s matches…

Last year, Djokovic came from two sets down to beat Sinner, 3-2 in the quarter finals.

In 2021, Medvedev beat a then-teenage Alcaraz, 3-0 in the 2nd round. In what was the Spanish youngster’s first year at Wimbledon.

Going into today’s matches, the bookies have Djokovic and Alcaraz as the clear favourites to progress to the final. With the Serbian superstar at 1/6 (1.17) to beat Sinner. And young Carlos 2/5 (1.4) to get past Medvedev.

It might not be all plain sailing for the Top 2 though…

After yesterday’s matches: 11 of the last 14 Wimbledon women’s semi finals have now been settled in straight sets, 2-0. In comparison:

  • Just 3 of the last 11 Wimbledon men’s semi finals have been settled in straight sets, 3-0. With 3 x 3-2 scores, and 5 x 3-1 results in that time…

The 3-1 score-line is the most prominent there. In general, a 3-1 win for the pre-match favourite tends to represent something of a percentage-play in men’s Grand Slam tennis: the top man coming through, but not without some struggle along the way…

  • 4 of Djokovic’s 8 Wimbledon semi-final victories have seen him prevail by the 3-1 score. Nobody has been able to take more than one set off Novak so far this Wimbledon fortnight, with the four-time defending champ winning 3-1 in each of the last 2 rounds

  • Alcaraz is also yet to drop more than one set in a match. Winning 3-1 in 2 of the last 3 rounds

Oftentimes I’d be going for a 3-2, five-set thriller on a day like this. But on this occasion, I don’t want to venture too far from the star names getting the job done and setting up the men’s final that everyone wants: Djokovic v Alcaraz…

While the Top 2 to reach the final pays 8/13 (1.62) at best as a Match Winner double today. I’m sticking to my guns and looking for bigger prices in the alternative markets…

Bet365 go 6/5 (2.2) for ‘Djokovic to Win and Both Players to Win a Set’ - eg. covering Djokovic to win 3-1 or 3-2. With Alcaraz also at 6/5 for that bet.

For greater rewards, I’m once again putting up my predictions in the Set Betting market: going Djokovic 3-1 and Alcaraz 3-1 at around 5/2 (3.5) each as singles. Along with a smaller stake (0.5 point) on the double, with Ladbrokes & Coral offering the best odds here, at 13/1


Ones to Watch picks - Wimbledon:

See above for full details

Men’s Semi Finals - play starts from 1.30pm

Set Betting:

  • Djokovic to win 3-1 v Sinner @ 13/5 (3.6) Ladbrokes, Coral, Boylesports, 5/2 (3.5) Betway, 12/5 (3.4) William Hill, BetVictor, Betfred

  • Alcaraz to win 3-1 v Medvedev @ 29/10 (3.9) Ladbrokes, Coral, 11/4 (3.75) William Hill, Boylesports, BetVictor, Betfred, Skybet

  • DOUBLE: Djokovic 3-1 & Alcaraz 3-1 @ 13/1 Ladbrokes, Coral, 12/1 Boylesports, 11/1+ (12.0+) in general  


I’ll be back on Saturday morning with your Day 13 email.

  • You can view every email in the archive on your members-only website here

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Enjoy the tennis…

Best wishes,

Tom Wilson

Oliver Upstone

Ones to Watch