Tennis Betting Advice - July 2025
Ones to Watch in Canada at 33/1 and 50/1...
Monday 28th July 2025
This week’s ATP Toronto event has got my underdog antenna twitching…
Despite being a high-grade Masters 1000 tournament, the top of the field is notably light on star names. The likes of Jannik Sinner, Carlos Alcaraz, and Novak Djokovic, all playing it cautious in a bid to be fully fit for next month’s US Open in New York.
Jumping into the decent prices, two men I like at 33/1 - 50/1 are ALEJANDRO DAVIDOVICH FOKINA and FRANCISCO CERUNDOLO. Not the most obvious of names. But given the above context, and our Ones to Watch outsider-betting stance - that’s kind of the point…
Cerundolo gets pigeon-holed as a clay-courter, but the Argentinean has shown form and plenty of promise on hard courts before. Not least when getting to the quarter finals at both Indian Wells and Miami in the States this March. He’s in the same part of the Toronto draw as 6/1 joint-favourite Alexander Zverev, who hasn’t looked his best so far this spring/ summer. The German is 0-3 on the head-to-head v the lower-ranked Cerundolo.
It would be easy to put the boot into Davidovich Fokina, with the Spaniard last night losing from a winning (match point) position in a final for the second time this year. But on the other hand, Alejandro has now reached three ATP finals in 2025…
He’s currently carrying some baggage with the tag of being one of the best players on tour yet to win a title (now zero from four in finals). But the fact that three of Davidovich Fokina’s four championship matches have come this season shows that the 26-year-old is doing plenty right. He’s now up to a career best no.19 in the rankings, too.
Last time Davidovich Fokina lost in a final from match point up, at Delray Beach in February, he impressively and resiliently bounced straight back from that disappointment by reaching another final in his very next tournament (Acapulco). Both were on outdoor hard courts, as was Washington last week - and Toronto this week.
I watched last night’s match, and Alejandro played some sensational stuff at times, as well as in the earlier rounds - knocking out the likes of the favourite Taylor Fritz, and Ones to Watch regular Ben Shelton (as well as our 300/1 teenage pick Learner Tien).
With these Masters events stretched out over two weeks these days, we have plenty of time to make other moves, should we wish. One name I want to get in the book from the off in the women’s tournament in Montreal though, is frequent Ones to Watch name LINDA NOSKOVA…
The 20-year-old Czech continues to knock on the door, and her grit and consistency suggests to me the breakthrough may yet come this summer. Noskova was runner-up in Prague last week, and is now up to a career-high ranking of no.23 in the world. Already this season Linda has made multiple quarter finals and semi finals, too - including on hard courts in Abu Dhabi and Dubai.
The women near the top of the betting look as hard to trust as ever to be honest (Coco Gauff, Elena Rybakina, Jessica Pegula…). New Wimbledon champion Iga Swiatek is out in front as the 12/5 (3.4) favourite; the Pole made the semi finals last time the WTA event rocked up in Montreal in 2023.
We’ll pay some respect to Swiatek in the bottom half of the draw to start with, and take Noskova at 50/1 - the Czech youngster is on the opposite side of the sheet, and can’t meet the favourite until the final…
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Ones to Watch picks:
See above for full details
Outright Winner - Each Way (1/2 odds 1-2 places)
National Bank Open presented by Rogers
ATP Toronto:
Francisco Cerundolo @ 75/1 Unibet, BetMGM, BetUK, VirginBet (all the same sportsbook), 50/1 Ladbrokes, Coral, BetVictor, Boylesports, Betway, 40/1 Bet365, William Hill
Alejandro Davidovich Fokina @ 40/1 BetVictor, 33/1 general
WTA Montreal:
Still to price up at time of writing: Betfred, Skybet, Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook.
Play starts from 4pm, UK time. Bookies take down Outright Winner markets during each day’s matches.
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P.S
Want to get in touch? You can email me direct at:
oliver@spapublishinggroup.co.uk
Enjoy the tennis…
Best wishes,
Oliver Upstone