Big-odds alert - and a note for next week...

Friday 31st July 2026

We’re about to move into August, and the US Open run-up is gathering pace…

The big one takes place in the Big Apple from 30th August. The final Grand Slam of the year has a rich recent history for producing big-odds shocks and surprises (Emma Raducanu as a qualifier at 100/1 in 2021, for example).

Before the Major in New York, there are a couple of tournaments that are big events in their own right. Masters 1000 is the highest ATP/ WTA grade barring the Grand Slams.

These 1000-level trophies count for a lot: rankings points, prize money, and career status…

I’m away next week and for the first time in a long time, I’m having a ‘no laptop’ family holiday. I believe we don’t even have Wi-Fi where we’re staying…

The tours will be in Canada, where the men and women take it in turns each summer to switch between venues in Montreal and Canada. Both have recent form for producing upsets at eye-catching odds. As does the Cincinnati Open which follows those two…

For example:

In Montreal last summer, 200/1 teenager Victoria Mboko won her home event. We got on the Ones to Watch youngster at 28/1 halfway through that run. Naomi Osaka was a 40/1 runner-up. Karen Khachanov was the 33/1 men’s runner-up in Toronto.

In Cincinnati last year, Jasmine Paolini was a 40/1 finalist.

In 2024, Alexei Popyrin was a surprise 150/1 champion in Montreal. Beating 28/1 Andrey Rublev in the final. Amanda Anisimova was the 66/1 runner-up in Toronto. And Frances Tiafoe a 100/1 finalist in Cincinnati.

In 2023, Alex De Minaur was a 50/1 runner-up in Toronto. Likewise, Liudmila Samsonova was a 50/1 runner-up in Montreal.

In 2022, Pablo Carreno Busta was a huge 100/1 winner in Montreal. Beating 33/1 Hubert Hurkacz in the trophy match. Beatriz Haddad Maia was a 66/1 finalist in Toronto…

Cincinnati also delivered shocks in abundance that summer, with the 2022 men’s event seeing 150/1 Borna Coric take the title. While the women’s final witnessed 50/1 Caroline Garcia beating 80/1 Petra Kvitova.

In 2021, Camila Giorgi was a stunning 80/1 champion in Montreal. With Reilly Opelka serving his way to the Toronto final as a 150/1 underdog…

And again, not to be outdone by goings-on in Canada, the women’s 2021 Cincinnati tournament produced another mammoth price, with Jil Teichmann making the final as a rank outsider at 200/1.

With all those giant-odds results in mind, you and I really should pay attention to the players and prices in Canada and Cincinnati over the next three weeks…

I’m on holiday next week. Normal Ones to Watch coverage will resume by email in time for week two in Montreal & Toronto (week commencing Monday 10th August).

And Cincinnati will get the full treatment from the off (starts Thursday 13th August).

• If any picks catch the eye for ATP Montreal or WTA Toronto that are simply too good to miss next week, I’ll do all I can to get them to you via a post on the Ones to Watch WhatsApp channel. If you’re not on there already, Follow the channel here. (We will also endeavour to email out any selections, albeit minus the usual in-depth write-ups, as I’ll be away from the internet and my computer)

While I’m away, please keep an eye on the WhatsApp channel.

Enjoy the tennis…

Best wishes,

Oliver Upstone

Ones to Watch