French Open: Bets of the Day – a 12/1 shot for the quarter finals…

Tuesday 5th June 2018

In your Ones to Watch email today:

• French Open Day 10 – play starts 1pm…
• A big day ahead…
• A 12/1 shot for the quarter finals…

French Open – Bets of the Day

Good morning and welcome to Day 10 of your French Open 2018 coverage…

Play starts from 1pm UK time.

A big day ahead…

I’m not sure what I can say about Kevin Anderson’s collapse yesterday.

Once again one of our match bets went down in the closest of manners. With Anderson leading 6-1, 6-2, 5-4 and then serving for the match and a straight sets win, he got tight and lost his serve. After that, it all slowly spiralled away from the South African. Kevin had a chance to serve it out again in the fourth set, and blew it again – eventually losing the match 3-2.

That oh-so-close result ultimately prevented our match Trixie from giving a payout, after John Isner lost and Angelique Kerber won.

We’ve had many near misses so far at this tournament. But I’m ever the optimist and always looking for the big picture…

Our 50/1 outsider Elise Mertens was wiped out by World No.1 Simona Halep yesterday, but one of our two remaining Outright Winner picks could yet turn the French Open 2018 into a very happy one for us…

Madison Keys (66/1) and Sloane Stephens (25/1) both play today in the quarter finals. Both are now 8/1 each for the title.

The bookies make Keys the favourite to beat Yulia Putintseva, and the Stephens v Daria Kasatkina match is priced up as pretty much 50-50.

• My ‘saver bet’ policy is usually to not take action until the semi finals, when the full win-or-lose permutations of an Each Way tournament bet can be figured out. But if you want to protect or recover your original stakes on Keys and Stephens by backing our players’ respective opponents to win their matches, don’t let me stop you

Nerves will play a part…

It’s a big day for us, no doubt. The quarter finals are where tension can really start to be felt…

As far as our picks are concerned, Stephens has a reputation for being pretty cool under pressure, and has the confidence of having won the US Open last year. Kasatkina is a player I like a lot but is in new territory here and can get nervous, especially on serve.

Stephens has been quietly building momentum, and going by her comments and lack of a career clay court title to date – as well as the freedom that sometimes comes with having survived match points in the early rounds – Sloane is playing with something of a ‘free roll’ attitude here and that has made her dangerous.

• In-play pointer: Kasatkina has lost her opening service game in two of her last three matches, including three jittery Double Faults in the first game v Caroline Wozniacki in the last round. If you’re betting in-play, an option to look out for is Stephens to break serve early on in the Game Winner market

Keys has more of a reputation for getting tight and nervy and having to battle with what’s going on inside her head, especially when closing out victory towards the end of a match, but she’s up against an opponent in Putintseva who unlike US Open runner-up Keys, has never been past this stage in a Grand Slam.

So far Keys has been one of the form players of the tournament, winning all four matches in straight sets, 2-0.

A 12/1 shot for the Quarter Finals…

Sticking with the big-odds theme of our match betting in this tournament, I like these three Set Betting scores in today’s quarter finals…

• Dominic Thiem v Alexander Zverev – the last four matches between these two young rivals of the Men’s game have gone: Zverev-Thiem-Zverev-Thiem, and only one of their six career meetings has been settled in straight sets. Zverev has just had to battle through three 3-2 wins in a row in week one, while Thiem has won each of his last three matches by 3 sets to 1. My pick is Thiem to win 3-1
• Marco Cecchinato v Novak Djokovic – the lowest ranked man left in the tournament takes on the former World No.1 and multiple Grand Slam champion. Novak has been returning to a bit of form over the last few matches, and is vastly experienced at this level. This is by far the biggest occasion of Cecchinato’s career. The sensible option is Djokovic to win 3-0
• Yulia Putintseva v Madison Keys – Keys has started like a train in her last two matches, and if she can keep that up here then she can establish a lead that Putintseva will struggle to climb back from. The American is yet to drop a set. Keys to win 2-0

The treble pays around 12/1…

Set Betting:

BET: Treble on Thiem 3-1, Djokovic 3-0 and Keys 2-0 @ 12/1
BOOKIES: 12/1 (13.00) Marathonbet, 888 Sport, Unibet, 10/1+ (11.00+) Skybet, William Hill, Betway
Latest odds here

In summary…

Here are today’s Bets of the Day (see above for full details):

Set Betting – Treble on Thiem 3-1, Djokovic 3-0 and Keys 2-0 @ 12/1

I’ll be back at 8am tomorrow with your Bets of the Day for Wednesday’s quarter final matches.

Enjoy the tennis…

Best wishes,

Tom Wilson

Ones to Watch