Tennis Betting Advice - June 2018
French Open: Bets of the Day – 9/1 value for Del Potro v Cilic…
Wednesday 6th June 2018
In your Ones to Watch email today:
French Open – Bets of the Day
Good morning and welcome to Day 11 of your French Open 2018 coverage…
Play starts from 1pm UK time.
Friends Reunited…
Yesterday was a big day for us, and I’m pleased to say it went to plan.
While our run of near-miss match bets have certainly tested the resolve at this tournament, the big picture is now looking a lot more rosy thanks to two of our Outright Winner picks.
Madison Keys (66/1) and Sloane Stephens (25/1) both won their respective quarter final matches – and will now play each other in the semi final…
Both were impressive straight-sets winners, with Keys beating Yulia Putintseva 7-5, 6-4 and Stephens coming out a dominant 6-3, 6-1 winner over Daria Kasatkina. Between them, Keys & Stephens have lost just one set in total in the tournament so far.
With Madison and Sloane playing each other in the semi final, we will have a guaranteed finalist, and with it an Each Way payout at the very least. We have the luxury of looking ahead one match to the final, where we will be sitting on odds of 66/1 or 25/1 for one of our picks – with a chance to go all the way and lift the trophy on Saturday afternoon.
Long-time members will know that Keys and Stephens are already friends of ours, having provided us with a win-win US Open final last summer at best prices of 16/1 v 40/1. Stephens won the title at the big price there. The bookies now make her favourite to beat Keys again in the French Open semi final.
The two Americans are best friends off the court, so it will be interesting to see how that match-up pans out this time. We’ll take a closer look at that semi final tomorrow.
9/1 value for Del Potro v Cilic…
The quarter finals continue today, and the match I’m focusing on is Juan-Martin Del Potro v Marin Cilic…
This is the World No.6 v the World No.4. They’ve met 12 times before and had some great battles.
The head-to-head is well in Del Potro’s favour, 10-2 to the Argentinean overall – and 4-0 on clay, with Cilic yet to win a set off him on the red dirt. Del Potro is a 4/7 (1.57) favourite to win today.
The quarter finals, semi finals and finals of the Grand Slams give us something different to look at, with the bookies stepping up their coverage and offering a greater range of specials and stats markets than at any other tournaments – specifically Aces and Double Faults options…
We’ve got a winning record in these markets, including an 11/2 (6.50) Most Aces winner in the Women’s Australian Open final earlier this year.
I’ve had my head in the stats this morning and my research has found a couple of eye-catching prices that, with the numbers in mind, look great value…
My stats homework – and subsequent search through the bookies’ websites and prices – tells us that:
Aces…
In the French Open so far, Cilic has served a total of 39 Aces. Averaging 9.75 per match, and 2.6 per set. Del Potro has served 34 Aces, averaging 8.5 per match and 2.62 per set.
On the career head-to-head, Cilic has served the Most Aces in 7 of their 12 meetings. But on clay, Del Potro leads the head-to-head with 2 Most Aces wins from their 4 matches (one for Cilic, and one tie).
Skybet make Cilic the 4/5 (1.80) favourite for the Most Aces in today’s match, but the ‘per set’ averages above and the career clay record suggest Del Potro is the value as the 5/4 (2.25) underdog.
Double Faults…
So far in the tournament, Cilic has served 14 Double Faults. Averaging 3.5 per match, and 0.93 per set. Del Potro has served half as many – 7 Double Faults in total with an average of 1.75 per match and 0.54 per set.
Cilic has got the Most Double Faults in 9 of their 12 previous meetings, including 9 of the last 10. On clay, the Croatian has landed that bet in all 4 previous encounters.
Skybet make Cilic the 4/7 (1.57) favourite for the Most Double Faults today.
9/1 and 30/1 specials…
The stats and my analysis point to Del Potro winning the match, being the value as the outsider for the Most Aces – and Cilic as the rightful favourite for the Most Double Faults.
Looking at the specials and combinations on offer with the bookies for those outcomes, a couple of big prices are well worth a mention here…
First things first, for comparison, let’s consider that the individual prices mentioned above would make Del Potro to win & Most Aces & Least Double Faults come out as around a 9/2 (5.50) shot as a fictional treble.
Now when we look at the bookies’ markets we can see a real difference and some clear value…
In their ‘Match Trebles’ market, Skybet make that combo just 9/4 (3.25).
But Betfred, in their ‘Pick a Punt – Bet Requests’ section, are offering that combined trio of outcomes at a big looking 9/1 (10.00).
Taking things one step further, and considering Del Potro has won all 4 previous clay meetings v Cilic without dropping a single set…
The on-paper treble for Del Potro to win 3-0, Most Aces and Least Double Faults would come out at around 12/1 (13.00). In BetVictor’s ‘Match Trebles’ options, that bet is available at an eye-catching 30/1 (31.00).
I’ve gone through several options for you there, with three prices looking value in particular – Del Potro Most Aces at 5/4, and the two combos at 9/1 and 30/1. I’m going down the middle and taking the 9/1 shot…
‘Pick a Punt – Bet Requests’ market at Betfred:
BET: Del Potro to win, serve Most Aces & Least Double Faults @ 9/1
BOOKIES: 9/1 (10.00) Betfred
In summary…
Here are today’s Bets of the Day (see above for full details):
Del Potro to win, serve Most Aces & Least Double Faults @ 9/1
I’ll be back at 8am tomorrow with your Bets of the Day for Thursday, which is Women’s semi final day.
Enjoy the tennis…
Best wishes,
Tom Wilson