Tennis Betting Advice - June 2018
French Open: Bets of the Day – 66/1 Keys v 25/1 Stephens…
Thursday 7th June 2018
In your Ones to Watch email today:
French Open – Bets of the Day
Good morning and welcome to Day 12 of your French Open 2018 coverage…
Play starts from 12 noon UK time.
Semi Final bonus day…
Rain stopped play last night so the French Open crowd get to enjoy some extra Men’s tennis today, on what is officially Women’s Semi Final day.
Rafael Nadal v Diego Schwartman resumes with Rafa serving to level the match at 1-1, having lost the opening set.
Marin Cilic v Juan-Martin Del Potro is finely poised with the score dead level at 6 games all, 5-5 in the first set tiebreak.
Our 9/1 special on that match has some work to do on the Most Aces front – the combo was a value price for Del Potro to win, serve Most Aces and Least Double Faults. So far – and the match is still in its early stages – the match is level, Cilic has one Double Fault to none for Del Potro, but Cilic is 11-4 ahead on the Aces. Play resumes from 12 noon.
Shift some points to Stephens…
Women’s Semi Final day looks set to be a good one. All four players have been in Grand Slam finals before, and all within the last 12 months. Simona Halep v Garbine Muguruza is first up (see below), followed by Madison Keys v Sloane Stephens…
We have a guaranteed Each Way place payout coming our way (at least) here, having backed Keys at a best price 66/1 and Stephens at 25/1.
Treating both bets to level stakes (1 point Each Way), and dealing with just the potential Each Way (1/2 the odds) place payouts from our two Outright Winner bets for the purposes of today’s trading advice, that means we’re currently weighted in favour of Keys making the final:
Total staked on Keys & Stephens = 4 pts
Keys wins today = 34 pts place return, 30 pts profit
Stephens wins today = 13.5 pts place return, 9.5 pts profit
The situation as I see it is that Stephens is more likely to win the final should she get there, as she plays with a calmness about her and has an exceptional 6-0 career record in finals, including last year’s US Open final (v Keys). However, we stand to win significantly more from Keys, and in that respect have room to manoeuvre today.
My advice: the sensible move is to even things up a little by staking several points on Stephens to beat Keys. In other words, shifting some of the potential place returns from Keys to Stephens.
Staking 10 pts on Stephens to win today’s match at odds of 4/7 (1.57) would make the Each Way returns look like this:
Total staked on Keys & Stephens = 14 pts
Keys wins today = 34 pts place return, 20 pts profit
Stephens wins today = 29.21 pts place + match bet return, 15.21 pts profit
And remember, whoever wins today, from the Win Only parts of our Outright Winner bets, we will still have 1 pt on Keys at 66/1 or Stephens at 25/1 to land the big prize in the final.
Match Winner – ONLY place if you backed Keys & Stephens as previously advised:
BET: 10 pts on Stephens to beat Keys @ 4/7
BOOKIES: 4/7 (1.57) Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook, Boylesports, Marathonbet
Latest odds here
Halep for the Most Double Faults…
Simona Halep v Garbine Muguruza
A potentially classic match in store here, with both women playing very well so far…
Muguruza is yet to drop a set, winning five matches in a row by the 2-0 score (a feat only matched by Keys).
Halep is seemingly more focused and driven than ever to win her first ever Grand Slam title, having missed out in three finals to date – including two here at Roland Garros.
I’m interested in the stats markets for this semi final, with Halep’s Double Faults price standing out…
For the tournament both players have averaged about one Double Fault per set. And for the season they’re also pretty much level, averaging in the region of 2.5 Double Faults per match on the WTA Tour.
Neither player is a prolific ‘Double-Faulter’ compared to some women on the tour that can rack up double figures on a bad day, but crucially I see Halep as the more likely to get nervy on serve here…
Apart from the occasion – a Grand Slam semi final, with the World No.1 spot up for grabs, too – what could prove the difference in terms of Double Faults today is Halep’s awareness that the aggressive Muguruza will step in and be all over any Second Serves that she gets the chance to attack.
That pressure is often a Double Fault trigger for players, and could prove the difference today. When it’s a Second Serve and you can see your opponent move forward, eagerly prowling on the service box line, you’re all too aware that any weak serve you present them with might come flying straight back past you as a winner a moment later. The pressure is then to go for a stronger, riskier Secord Serve – increasing the chances of a Double Fault.
In the quarter finals, the Double Fault score for Halep v Angelique Kerber was 4-3. For Muguruza v a tense Maria Sharapova, the tally was 2-6.
Halep has got the Most Double Faults in three of her four previous meetings v Muguruza, with the other a tie.
We had a Most Double Faults winner on Halep at this exact same price in the Australian Open semi finals, and the Romanian looks the value again in today’s French Open semi.
Simona Halep v Garbine Muguruza:
BET: Most Double Faults – Halep @ 11/8
BOOKIES: 11/8 (2.38) Skybet
Latest odds here
Here are today’s Bets of the Day (see above for full details):
Stephens to beat Keys @ 4/7 (only if you backed them Each Way previously)
Most Double Faults – Halep @ 11/8
I’ll be back at 8am tomorrow with your Bets of the Day for Friday, which is Men’s semi final day.
Enjoy the tennis…