Tennis Betting Advice - June 2018

French Open: Bets of the Day – Aces & Double Faults…

Friday 8th June 2018

In your Ones to Watch email today:

  • French Open Day 13 – play starts 12 noon…
  • 25/1 Stephens into the final…
  • Two picks for the Men’s Semi Finals…

French Open – Bets of the Day

Good morning and welcome to Day 13 of your French Open 2018 coverage…

Play starts from 12 noon UK time.

Good things come to those who wait…

Yesterday was a good day.

We’d been made to wait an extra 24 hours for the conclusion of the Men’s quarter final between Juan-Martin Del Potro and Marin Cilic. But the rain held off yesterday and the remainder of the match panned out pretty much just how we wanted it to…

Del Potro won 3-1, Cilic got the Most Double Faults (5-2) – and crucially, Del Potro served the Most Aces, 19-18.

That trio of outcomes combined to land our 9/1 special on Del Potro to win, serve Most Aces and Least Double Faults.

After lamenting several near misses and ‘just one away’ bets in week one, it was perhaps fitting that our 9/1 shot should be decided by just one Ace, with the tally 19-18 in our favour. That 19th Ace was the only time in the entire match that Del Potro had got in front on the Aces count.

Things went our way this time. And betting at big value prices like that, we don’t need things to go our way that often to get our noses in front.

Our good record in the Grand Slam serving-stats markets continued with a Double Faults winner on Simona Halep yesterday. The Romanian served the Most Double Faults v Garbine Muguruza, 4-1.

On the Outright Winner front, we were right to trade off some of our potential Each Way returns from Madison Keys...

Having a 66/1 shot v a 25/1 shot in the semi final gave us a great position to work with, and yesterday’s chunky bet on Sloane Stephens ended up being the right move as Sloane took out her friend and fellow American, 6-4, 6-4. The career head-to-head between those two is now 3-0 to Stephens, win Keys yet to win a set.

Stephens moves into Saturday’s final where she will face World No.1 Simona Halep, for the chance to win her second Grand Slam title – and the chance to bring home a big 25/1 payout for us. We already have the place money (and profit) coming our way, so again things are looking good. We’ll take a closer look at the final in tomorrow’s email.

Serving stats for the Men’s semis…

It’s Men’s Semi Final day today and both matches have very short priced favourites, with Nadal and Thiem both just 1/8 (1.12) each to win.

There are a couple of better prices on offer in the Aces and Doubles Faults markets...

Marco Cecchinato v Dominic Thiem

Thiem has served the Most Double Faults in the tournament (27), with that tally matching the number of Aces that he’s managed. The Austrian has also hit the fastest serve of the tournament. Clearly, he’s going for his serves – but not always getting them on target.

Italian underdog Cecchinato has served just 12 Double Faults so far, but it’s noteworthy that 5 of those came in the last round against Novak Djokovic. Today is another big match on the big stage, so the pressure could tell a little.

The best option here looks to be Over 6.5 Double Faults in the match. Thiem has landed that on his own in three of his five matches.

Total Double Faults:

BET: Over 6.5 Double Faults @ Evens
BOOKIES: Evens (2.00) Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook
Latest odds here

  • Also available – Over 7.5 Double Faults with Marathonbet, 888 Sport, Unibet, 32RedSport, NetBet, 10Bet

Rafael Nadal v Juan-Martin Del Potro

The head-to-head is 9-5 to Rafa, but in nine of their 14 meetings Del Potro has taken at least one set off him, so this should be competitive. If Del Potro is going to mount a challenge, he’ll need to serve well again. And when the big matches come along, Rafa often steps up his own serving…

Del Potro has got a total of 53 Aces so far (after 19 v Cilic in the last round), Nadal has 14.

Over 11.5 Aces has paid out in all five of Del Potro’s matches so far. On the head-to-head, that bet has paid out in their last two meetings, and in two of their last three best-of-five sets encounters.

Total Aces:

BET: Over 11.5 Aces @ 111/100
BOOKIES: 111/100 (2.11) Marathonbet, Evens (2.00) Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook, 888 Sport, Unibet, 32RedSport
Latest odds here

In summary…

Here are today’s Bets of the Day (see above for full details):

Cecchinato v Thiem – Over 6.5 Double Faults @ Evens

Nadal v Del Potro – Over 11.5 Aces @ 111/100

I’ll be back at 8am tomorrow with your Bets of the Day for Saturday, when we’ll be looking at the Women’s Final – Simona Halep v Sloane Stephens.

Enjoy the tennis…

Best wishes,

Oliver Upstone

Tom Wilson

Ones to Watch