Tennis Betting Advice - June 2018
French Open: Bets of the Day – 25/1 Stephens v Halep…
Saturday 9th June 2018
In your Ones to Watch email today:
French Open – Bets of the Day
Good morning and welcome to Day 14 of your French Open 2018 coverage…
Play starts from 2pm UK time.
Straight sets semis…
All four semi finals across the Men’s & Women’s event were settled in straight sets, 3-0 and 2-0 – and none of them were classics.
Those whitewash scores didn’t help our two picks yesterday, with there being time for just 2 Aces in the Nadal v Del Potro match (having backed Over 11.5), and 5 Double Faults in the Thiem v Cecchinato match (backed Over 6.5).
We’re ahead on those stats markets overall though, and having a winning record on Aces & Double Faults selections in the last year.
Today I like a different serving-related market in the Women’s final…
Women’s Final – 25/1 Stephens v Halep…
Simona Halep v Sloane Stephens
Rankings: Halep #1, Stephens #10
Head-to-head: Halep 5-2
Match Winner odds: Halep 4/9 (1.44), Stephens 2/1 (3.00)
This is a big one for us, with our 25/1 Outright Winner pick Sloane Stephens having the chance to win what would be her second Grand Slam trophy out of the last three on offer…
We already have a 12/1+ place payout assured from the Each Way part of our bet. And with the bookies making Stephens 2/1 to win today’s match, we have fantastic value on our side with Sloane at 25/1 to win.
If we weren’t already on Stephens, this is exactly the kind of match where I’d be looking to back her as the underdog. So I won’t be trading in any of the potential profit by backing the favourite Halep here.
Yes, Halep is World No.1 and yes, she has beaten Stephens five times out of seven. But this is a Grand Slam final, and they’ve never met in one of those…
Stephens has glided through the French Open draw as a bit of a ‘sleeper,’ being quietly impressive and dominant without appearing to produce the spectacular. ‘Easy power’ is the phrase you keep hearing from the commentators, and I know what they mean. The ball appears to fly from Sloane’s racket with ease. And when she’s on song – as she has been this Paris fortnight – Sloane has that great gift of being so good, she actually makes it look easy.
I’ve mentioned Sloane’s calmness before and if she can continue in that mode today – and there’s no reason why she can’t – then this almost superpower of not getting as nervous as her opponents could serve her very well indeed.
Pretty much all the talk in the build-up has been amount Halep finally winning a Major. This is her fourth Grand Slam final – her third at Roland Garros and second in a row.
The Romanian has been brilliant so far in the tournament. But this is a final. And things could be different. Or perhaps more accurately, things could be the same…
Halep has lost three out of three Grand Slam finals. Stephens has won one out of one. Halep has lost six out of seven finals in the last 12 months. Stephens has a career record in finals of played six won six.
If you’ve seen any of Stephens’ last few matches, you’ll have seen how consistent a ball-striker she is, how many balls she gets back (often turning defence into attack) and how hard it is for opponents to get the ball past her.
Halep has a similarly relentless game and is likely to be the more aggressive player here, but the pressure is all on her and it will be hugely impressive if the World No.1 can play at her top level for the entire duration of this match…
The serving stats help illustrate the consistency of Stephens. Remarkably, Sloane has served just two Double Faults in the entire tournament to date – and is ranked No.1 in the French Open Women’s standings for 2nd Serve Points Won (76%). Those stats show both her consistency and confidence: she usually gets her second serve in – and wins the point.
Sloane value for the first break…
With the picture painted above in mind, there’s one match bet that stands out in particular for me and that’s Stephens to be the first player to break serve…
Stephens has been the first player to break serve in all six matches so far.
Halep on the other hand has been broken first in three of her six matches, with slow starts and/ or nerves a familiar trait in her game. Halep actually lost her first two service games against both Alison Riske in the 1st Round and Angelique Kerber in the quarter finals, going 0-4 and 0-5 down in the opening sets.
And when it comes to Grand Slam finals…
Halep lost her very first service game in the Australian Open final this year, and also in the French Open final last year. Stephens held and then broke first in the US Open final.
The American is the value here.
Simona Halep v Sloane Stephens:
BET: 1st Service Break – Stephens @ 5/4
BOOKIES: 5/4 (2.25) Skybet, Betway, Sportingbet, Bwin, 6/5 (2.20) Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook
Latest odds here
Here are today’s Bets of the Day (see above for full details):
1st Service Break – Stephens @ 5/4
I’ll be back at 8am tomorrow with your Bets of the Day for Sunday, when we’ll be looking at the Men’s Final – Rafael Nadal v Dominic Thiem.
Enjoy the tennis…