Tennis Betting Advice - June 2018
French Open: Bets of the Day – 9/1 for Rafa to win…
Sunday 10th June 2018
In your Ones to Watch email today:
French Open – Bets of the Day
Good morning and welcome to Day 15 of your French Open 2018 coverage…
Play starts from 2pm UK time.
Slow starts…
I’ve been wrestling with Windows 10 Updates this morning, so apologies for this email reaching you a little later than usual. And with the clock ticking as I write, having finally got online, I’ll keep things brief in today’s analysis…
Firstly a quick note on yesterday’s Women’s Final. Our 25/1 outsider Sloane Stephens was the better player for one set and a bit, but World No.1 Simona Halep fought back to in the end prevail as an eventual deserving winner, 3-6, 6-4, 6-1.
After winning the US Open for us at 40/1 last year, Sloane doesn’t owe us anything. And an Each Way payout here means we don’t leave the French Open empty-handed.
We called the early part of the match right, with Halep once again starting a bit slow and Stephens landing the 1st Service Break at odds of 5/4.
A slow start for the favourite is likely to be the best chance of an upset in the Men’s Final today…
Men’s Final – Rafael Nadal v Dominic Thiem…
Rankings: Nadal #1, Thiem #10
Head-to-head: Nadal 6-3
Match Winner odds: Nadal 2/9 (1.22), Thiem 7/2 (4.50)
Nadal is going for his 11th French Open title. Thiem is the only man to beat Rafa on clay this season and the feeling is that the young Austrian is next in line to the Clay Court King’s throne…
The head-to-head is 6-3 to Nadal with all nine meetings being on clay. They’ve met twice before at the French Open with Rafa winning 3-0 both times, most recently in the semi finals last year.
The big upset might be a step too far today, but there are signs that Thiem can make things interesting, especially early on…
9/1 for Rafa to win…
If Thiem is going to do anything in this match, chances are he needs to start well. Rafa is a master at leading from the front and trying to reel him in from behind on the scoreboard on clay in Paris is a mammoth task for anyone.
Nadal isn’t immune to a slow start and even the great man himself admits to getting nervous – part of the reason he’s so great is that Rafa never turns up thinking he’s got an easy day at the office.
The good news for Thiem is that he’s broken serve first in four of their last five meetings…
And so far at this tournament, Nadal has made a few slow starts including losing his serve first (and the first set) in the quarter final v Schwartzman. As well as being broken early against Marterer in the 4th Round, and having to save numerous break points in the opening set v Del Potro in the semis, including being 0-30 and 0-40 down in his first two service games.
With that in mind, Thiem is a decent price for the 1st Service Break today.
Rafael Nadal v Dominic Thiem:
BET: 1st Service Break – Thiem @ 7/4
BOOKIES: 7/4 (2.75) Betway, 13/8 (2.63) Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook, 6/4 (2.50) BetVictor
Latest odds here
Thiem is odds-on at 4/6 (1.67) To Win a Set in the match, so the Austrian getting a set on the scoreboard against a player he beat last time out would not be a major upset…
Another noteworthy stat is that four of the last five sets that Nadal has lost at the French Open have been the first set of the match. That happened in the quarter final where Rafa came roaring back from losing the first set to beat Schwartzman 3-1. We could see a similar pattern today…
Options here include Nadal 3-1 in the Set Betting market at 11/4, or Thiem to win the First Set at 2/1.
At 4/1, Nadal To Lose the First Set and Win ramps the price up a bit.
But I want to go after the biggest price I can find for this scenario, and for me that’s in Skybet’s Set Exacta market where we’re asked to predict the sequence of sets. Nadal to lose the first set and come back to win 3-1 is displayed as: LWWW Nadal – and available at an eye-catching 9/1.
Rafael Nadal v Dominic Thiem:
BET: Set Exacta – LWWW Nadal @ 9/1
BOOKIES: 9/1 (10.00) Skybet
Latest odds here
In summary…
Here are today’s Bets of the Day (see above for full details):
1st Service Break – Thiem @ 7/4
Set Exacta – LWWW Nadal @ 9/1
I’ll be back tomorrow with an update, and a look ahead to the grass court season which starts straight away this week.
Enjoy the tennis…
Best wishes,
Tom Wilson