Tennis Betting Advice - June 2018

French Open: Bets of the Day – three potential upsets…

Saturday 2nd June 2018

In your Ones to Watch email today:

  • French Open Day 7 – play starts 10am…
  • Keys cut from 66/1 to 12/1…
  • Looking for the upsets…

French Open – Bets of the Day

Good morning and welcome to Day 7 of your French Open 2018 coverage…

Play starts from 10am UK time.

Svitolina ‘shock’ sends ripples…

I said yesterday was the time to grab a couple of big prices in the bottom half of the Women’s draw. And so it proved with the 4/1 tournament joint-favourite Elina Svitolina crashing out in the 3rd Round…

Svitolina was sent packing in straight sets by 4/1 match underdog Mihaela Buzarnescu (a player who reached the WTA Strasbourg semi finals for us the week before the French Open).

Our 150/1 long-shot Katerina Siniakova fell by the wayside. But with the big prices, all we really need is for one player to make the breakthrough in the tournament – and our 66/1 pick Madison Keys could be that player…

Keys showed signs of the dominant tennis she is capable of with a 6-1, 7-6 victory over Naomi Osaka. That match should have been over even quicker than it was, but a bit of a wobble from Keys in the second set took it to a tiebreak.

If she can keep her head together in the next round and from now on – and coach & ex-Grand Slam winner Lindsay Davenport can help her to do just that – then Maddie has the chance to go a long way here. Keys already has a taste of what it takes, reaching the US Open final for us last year.

From 66/1 to 12/1…

In yesterday’s emails I referred to Svitolina as the ‘talking horse’ in the 3rd Quarter of the draw and that’s because I thought her price was too short considering her Grand Slam record (still yet to get past the quarter final stage) – and because she was being hyped up as a French Open favourite. Yesterday’s result was just the latest proof that ‘shocks’ do happen and that a short price doesn’t mean a certain win…

Don’t ask me why, but often at a Grand Slam there’ll be a day when a few of the big names & seeds start to fall like dominoes. Friday was the closest we’ve come to a ‘day of shocks’ so far with World No.5 Grigor Dimitrov losing in straight sets as well as World No.4 Svitolina. World No.3 Alexander Zverev was almost the headline defeat of the day, saving match point and coming from 2 sets to 1 and a break down in the third to avoid a 10/1 knockout by Damir Dzumhur.

The draw has certainly opened up with Svitolina’s exit...

Keys went from a best price 66/1 yesterday morning to as short as 12/1 by the end of the day.

And our other Outright Winner pick in the bottom half of the Women’s draw, 14/1 Petra Kvitova, is now half that price at 7/1 in general. We have value on our side.

Rain stopped play on Friday evening so a few of yesterday’s matches are still to be played or completed. Including our 66/1 Men’s pick David Goffin, and Kvitova. Along with the matches carried over, there are 16 other 3rd Round ties on the Saturday schedule…

Looking for the upsets…

In search of the surprises and attractive underdog prices, three matches catch the eye on today’s Women’s schedule…

Garbine Muguruza v Sam Stosur

Sam Stosur is a 5/2 (3.50) outsider to beat 2016 French Open winner and current World No.3 Garbine Muguruza. We had a winmer on Sam the other day and the former Roland Garros runner-up and three-time semi-finalist knows how to play on the clay.

Muguzura does get nervy at times and with this being the first match on the main Philippe Chatrier court in front of what might be a quiet crowd to start with on Saturday morning (the Paris stands tends to fill up as the day goes on), a fast start for the aggressive Stosur might be her best chance to get on the scoreboard here…

BET: First Set Winner – Sam Stosur @ 2/1
BOOKIES: 2/1 (3.00) Bet365, Skybet, William Hill, Coral, Sportingbet
Latest odds here

Irina-Camelia Begu v Caroline Garcia

Garcia is the last Frenchwoman left in the draw and the pressure will be on – she will be expected to win today, but 2/1 (3.00) match underdog Begu is an experienced clay court player and has beaten Garcia before.

The head-to-head is 3-2 to Garcia, and three of their five meetings have gone the distance to three sets, including both of the Romanian’s wins. Garcia can play brilliant for spells of a match and drop away at others; Begu is a fighter and if the upset was to happen here it may well come in a deciding set. The Set Betting market offers the biggest price about a Begu win here…

BET: Set Betting – Begu to win 2-1 @ 6/1 
BOOKIES: 6/1 (7.00) 888 Sport, Unibet, 23/4 (6.75) Sportingbet, Bwin, 11/2 (6.50) Betfair Sportsbook, Marathonbet, 5/1 (6.00) in general
Latest odds here

Simona Halep v Andrea Petkovic

The 30-year-old Petkovic is a 9/1 (10.00) outsider to pull off a huge win and take out World No.1 and tournament favourite Halep…

There’s a bit of history to this one with Halep having beaten Petkovic in the French Open semi finals in 2014. The score that day was 6-2, 7-6 to Halep and the Romanian has won each of their last six meetings, but they’ve actually all been closer than that score and backing Petkovic with a +6.5 Games Handicap has paid out in all eight of their career meetings at all levels.

Halep is of course the favourite here but she does have her wobbles and – unlike the German – Simona has already dropped a set this week. While getting Halep knocked out would be very nice for our positions in the Outright Winner market, the more likely chance of an underdog payout here is to back Petkovic with a head-start…

BET: Petkovic +6.5 Games Handicap @ Evens
BOOKIES: Evens (2.00) Bet365, Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook
Latest odds here

In summary…

Here are today’s Bets of the Day (see above for full details):

First Set Winner – Stosur @ 2/1

Set Betting – Begu to win 2-1 @ 6/1

Petkovic +6.5 Games Handicap @ Evens

I’ll be back at 8am tomorrow with your French Open Bets of the Day for Sunday.

Enjoy the tennis…

Best wishes,

Oliver Upstone

Tom Wilson

Ones to Watch