Tennis Betting Advice - June 2018
French Open: Bets of the Day – Stephens the value at 25/1…
Sunday 3rd June 2018
In your Ones to Watch email today:
French Open – Bets of the Day
Good morning and welcome to Day 8 of your French Open 2018 coverage…
Play starts from 10am UK time.
Goffin saves four match points…
Two Belgians provided us with our only good news yesterday…
Earlier in the week we spoke about survival instincts. David Goffin fought well and thought well to keep himself in the French Open yesterday…
Our 66/1 outsider pick in the Men’s draw, Goffin saved four match points on the way to an entertaining five-set win over Gael Monfils.
Goffin plays today in the 4th Round, where he’s a 1/5 (1.20) favourite against Marco Cecchinato, with a place in the quarter finals up for grabs.
Our 50/1 Women’s outsider selection, Elise Mertens is also through to the 4th Round after a convincing 6-1, 6-3 win over Daria Gavrilova. A key moment will come tomorrow when Mertens takes on World No.1 and tournament favourite Simona Halep.
Although the sun was shining both at home and in Paris, the rest of Saturday was pretty gloomy with our 14/1 pick Petra Kvitova knocked out 7-6, 7-6 by a free-swinging Anett Kontaveit (a player on our Ones to Watch in 2018 list).
Along with all three of our match bets falling short on the day, it was a tough one for sure. Andrea Petkovic was the toughest one, with the German losing the second set 6-0 v Halep after having to get treatment for a leg injury – a score-line which removed any chance for our +6.5 Games Handicap bet, after a promising and competitive first set that ended 7-5.
Chin up and looking forward, the big picture is that we have three Outright Winner players still live & running for us at attractive Each Way prices in 66/1 Goffin, 50/1 Mertens – and 66/1 Madison Keys who plays today.
A couple of battles in store today…
There are some great looking matches on the 4th Round schedule today. In the Men’s, Novak Djokovic v Fernando Verdasco, Dominic Thiem v Kei Nishikori and Karen Khachanov v Alexander Zverev all have the potential to be classics.
In the Women’s, Kontaveit v Sloane Stephens and Daria Kasatkina v Caroline Wozniacki sees two young-and-up-coming players Kontaveit & Kasatkina take on two recent first-time Grand Slam winners in Stephens & Wozniacki respectively.
In particular, Khachanov v Zverev and Thiem v Nishikori stand out for bets on the Total Games…
The 22-year-old Khachanov v the 21-year-old Zverev sees two tall, young, big-hitting players set to battle it out first up on the Suzanne-Lenglen court this morning (10am+). Khachanov has been quietly impressive so far while the favourite Zverev has had to come from behind two matches in a row to win 3-2, with Total Games tallies of 45 and 52. I was expecting the line to be set at higher than Over 36.5 Games.
Thiem is the favourite to beat Nishikori but the Japanese player has a 2-0 career record v the young Austrian, who has dropped sets in each of the last two rounds. Nishikori also had a five-set match earlier in the week (44 games). Over 37.5 Games is the line for this one.
In both matches it’s possible that the ‘Over’ bet could be landed in three long sets, and if they go to four+ sets then the games tallies would then be likely to go in our favour. Both options are available at around 4/5 (1.80) each. I like the double, which pays 2/1+ (3.00+).
Total Games – Double:
BET: Khachanov v Zverev – Over 36.5 Games & Thiem v Nishikori – Over 37.5 Games @ 11/5
BOOKIES: 11/5 (3.20) Boylesports, 2/1+ (3.00+) Ladbrokes, Coral, NetBet, 10Bet, Sportingbet, Bwin
Latest odds here
Stephens the value at 25/1…
While the top half of the Women’s draw is packed with big names – Serena, Sharapova, Halep, Muguruza, Kerber – the bottom half is looking like it might provide a newer name in the final…
There are four players left in the 4th Quarter of the Women’s event and – always on the hunt for value and an outsider opportunity – I like the biggest price of the lot…
Sloane Stephens proved her big-match credentials when winning the US Open last summer, which was a wonderful 40/1 winner for us at the time. She’s a streaky player and I haven’t backed her to do much since then. However, this week Sloane has progressed through three matches and is starting to look to me like the player that might sneak all the way through the draw here…
Stephens just about withstood the barrage of big shots from Camila Giorgi yesterday, winning 2-1 after the Italian served for the match twice, and it’s Sloane’s consistent hitting and calmness on court that could see her through again today against Kontaveit. The Estonian will attempt to batter the ball at every opportunity but I’m backing Sloane to keep getting those balls back, and to find her way through.
Rather than taking 11/10 (2.10) in the Match Winner market, I’m making what is likely to be my final Women’s Outright Winner pick here. In this quarter of the draw, Wozniacki is 10/1, Kasatkina 12/1 and Kontaveit 16/1. I like Stephens at 25/1.
Women’s Outright Winner:
BET: Sloane Stephens @ 25/1 Each Way
BOOKIES: 25/1 (26.00) Bet365, Paddy Power, 22/1 (23.00) William Hill
Latest odds here
Here are today’s Bets of the Day (see above for full details):
Total Games – Double: Khachanov v Zverev – Over 36.5 Games & Thiem v Nishikori – Over 37.5 Games @ 11/5
Women’s Outright Winner – Stephens @ 25/1 Each Way
I’ll be back at 8am tomorrow with your Bets of the Day for Monday.
Enjoy the tennis…