French Open: Bets of the Day – looking for the upsets at 11/1…

Monday 4th June 2018

In your Ones to Watch email today:

• French Open Day 9 – play starts 10am…
• 66/1 Keys and 25/1 Stephens sail through…
• Looking for the upsets – 11/1 for the treble…

French Open – Bets of the Day

Good morning and welcome to Day 9 of your French Open 2018 coverage…

Play starts from 10am UK time.

Outrights the shining lights…

Two very positive results for us yesterday, and two not so good.

In the Women’s event, things went well for two of our Outright Winner picks, with 66/1 Madison Keys and 25/1 Sloane Stephens absolutely romping their way through to their first ever French Open quarter finals.

The occasion looked too much for both of their opponents, with Mihaela Buzarnescu barely showing anything in the first set and tentatively getting her game going too late in the second. Madison Keys on the other hand has been a fast starter so far in this tournament, and reeled off a 6-1, 6-4 win for her fourth consecutive 2-0 victory.

Anett Kontaveit looked on the brink of tears as she could hardly find a winning shot from anywhere – a task made all the harder with the seemingly indefatigable Sloane Stephens on the other side of the net, getting all the balls back and then some. Stephens won by what was the most commanding score-line of the day, 6-2, 6-0.

Keys is now 10/1 for the title, and priced up as the favourite to beat Yulia Putintseva in Tuesday’s quarter final. We got on the American at a great time, with 66/1 and 50/1 disappearing once tournament joint-favourite (and originally pencilled-in 4th Round opponent) Elina Svitolina crashed out to Buzarnescu. Our big Each Way price means we will have scope to trade our bet this week.

Stephens has gone from 25/1 to 10/1 since we backed her yesterday. Sloane will face either Daria Kasatkina or Caroline Wozniacki in the quarter finals, with that match due to finish today after being suspended due to fading light on Sunday evening. That extended 4th Round match can only be a good thing for our pick, with Stephens having a free day on the schedule today.

That was the good news. In the Men’s, our 66/1 pick David Goffin finally ran out of steam after a gruelling tournament that included two five-set battles, with one of them stretching out over two days.

It looked like Goffin was struggling with a sore arm, and unfortunately he was never able to play like his usual tenacious self yesterday, going down 3-1 to Marco Cecchinato. The improving Italian was a 500/1 rank outsider on day one of the tournament and had never won a single main draw match at a Grand Slam. He’ll go on to face Novak Djokovic in the quarter finals.

While our Outright bets offer us plenty of hope as we enter week two and the business end of the tournament, our match bets have so far been a repeating case of so near but yet so far. That was the story again yesterday with our 2/1 Total Games double missing out by one selection, and by just two games:

Alexander Zverev beat Karen Khachanov 3-2 in a match that had 49 games (we backed Over 36.5).

But a ‘bagel’ 6-0 set cost us with Kei Nishikori losing 3-1 to Dominic Thiem, with the tally ending at 36 games (we backed Over 37.5). To rub salt in the wound, Nishikori started to struggle with his old wrist injury, and wasn’t able to play at 100% for the rest of the match.

Just like old times…

We move into week two with three big prices on our side in the Women’s draw – 66/1 Keys & 25/1 Stephens, and 50/1 Elise Mertens who has her big moment to deliver a knockout blow to World No.1 and tournament favourite Simona Halep today. Halep has been known to stutter and wobble under pressure before, and a clean hitting Mertens could make this very tricky – if she can keep her head.

We have excellent prices on our side there, and long-time members will know that it’s often the Women’s event that gives us our big-odds excitement…

Keys and Stephens produced a win-win US Open final for us last summer, at 16/1 v 40/1. This week at the French Open we have the possibility of a Keys v Stephens semi final, which if it were to happen would give us a guaranteed payout in the final.

Friends reunited there, with the two Americans great pals and both enjoying their best ever Roland Garros runs right now.

Old foes are reunited elsewhere in the Women’s draw today, with Serena Williams v Maria Sharapova the blockbuster headline-making 4th Round match-up on Day 9. Two household names bidding to get back into the bigtime after being away from the game in recent times here, and this is their 22nd career meeting. No bet for me in that one but it will be intriguing to watch I’m sure.

Looking for the upsets…

I like three underdogs in the Match Winner market today…

Men:

JOHN ISNER to beat Juan-Martin Del Potro @ around 2/1 (3.00)

• Isner has won their last two meetings, and has hit more Aces than anyone in the tournament so far (83 in three matches). Del Potro hasn’t been firing on all cylinders lately and the big-serving American could wear him down. Del Potro is the big name but an Isner win wouldn’t be seen as that much of an upset here

KEVIN ANDERSON to beat Diego Schwartzman @ around 11/10 (2.10)

• Another big server pick, with Anderson second in the French Open Most Aces standings (57 and counting). The South African is also a hard worker on court, and will fight for everything. Schwartzman is a superb clay court player but Anderson leads their head-to-head 2-0 (1-0 on clay), and over the five-set format his top-level experience and points won on serve can see him take this

Women:

ANGELIQUE KERBER to beat Caroline Garcia @ around Evens (2.00)

• Kerber is a big name but has hardly been talked about at Roland Garros this year. The German has a lot of experience and has been quietly putting some form together – she gets so many balls back that it’s hard for anyone to hit through her. Garcia will attempt to do that but the last remaining Frenchwoman in the draw will have all eyes on her here and has been known to fluff her lines before. The head-to-head is 4-1 to Kerber

Rather than three singles, I’m splitting a stake four ways across a Trixie – which is made up of three doubles and a treble.

If any two win the returns will cover the total stake, and if all three win the treble pays around 11/1 which would produce a nice profit.

Match Winner - Trixie:

BET: Trixie - Isner, Anderson & Kerber to win
BOOKIES: Treble pays 11/1+ (12.00+) @ Boylesports, BetVictor, NetBet, 10Bet, 10/1+ (11.00+) Bet365, William Hill, SunBets, Betway
Latest odds here

In summary…

Here are today’s Bets of the Day (see above for full details):

Match Winner – Trixie: Isner, Anderson & Kerber to win

I’ll be back at 8am tomorrow with your Bets of the Day for Tuesday, when the quarter finals will begin…

Enjoy the tennis…

Best wishes,

Tom Wilson

Ones to Watch