Tennis Betting Advice - June 2019
French Open: The case for Karen at 200/1…
Saturday 1st June 2019
French Open - Bets of the Day
In your Ones to Watch email today:
Good morning and welcome to Day Seven of your French Open 2019 daily service.
The 3rd Round wraps up today with 16 matches on the Saturday schedule, plus a couple to be completed from last night.
A shock of sorts…
On 31st May 2009, Rafael Nadal was knocked out of the French Open by Robin Soderling…
Ten years later and Rafa has only lost one other match here, to Novak Djokovic in 2015.
Nadal has won the title a record 11 times. After beating David Goffin yesterday – 10 years to the day since that Soderling shock – the Clay Court King’s match win-loss at Roland Garros stands at a staggering 89-2.
The fact that Goffin took a set off Rafa, losing 3-1, is as close to a shock as we’ve seen here with the Spaniard for some time. That was only the second set that Nadal has dropped in his last 17 matches at the French Open.
With that kind of dominance, we’re steering clear of Rafa’s side of the Paris draw this fortnight. And going instead for a speculative triple-figure price in the opposite half – see below.
Three women in with chances…
We only need one of our ‘big ones’ to put a big run together in order to put us in a good position for the tournament overall. That’s easier said than done, but the Women’s Outright Winner betting is as open as ever and we’re on three in-form players at value prices…
We have these three through to week two and the 4th Round:
All three were impressive on Friday, each of them winning their matches in straight sets.
Here’s a big one for the Men’s…
The case for Karen at 200/1…
Karen Khachanov appeared on our Ones to Watch list for the 2017 season. That player report has proved to be a bit of a golden one with Naomi Osaka going on to win two Grand Slams to date – including the US Open at 50/1 – and reach No.1 in the world… Alexander Zverev racking up 10 ATP Tour titles since the start of 2017, and enter the Top 5… and Jelena Ostapenko winning the French Open at 100/1.
Khachanov has won a total of four ATP titles and reached a current career-best of No.11 in the rankings. The best could be still to come…
Clay is not his best surface (three ATP titles last year all won on indoor hard courts) – but the 23-year-old has made the French Open 4th Round two years running. In 2017, Andy Murray ended the young Russian’s run. Last year, current World No.5 Zverev edged Karen out in five sets.
In terms of the big names in the 2nd Quarter of the draw here…
Khachanov has never faced Juan Martin Del Potro or Dominic Thiem on clay – but has a 3-0 overall career head-to-head record v 8/1 tournament third favourite Thiem. The Austrian has dropped sets in his first two matches, and last year’s French Open runner-up has a tricky one today against clay-court veteran Pablo Cuevas. The head-to-head there is 3-3 and Cuevas has beaten Thiem on clay twice before.
Del Potro (50/1) had a tough five-setter in the last round and his fitness continues to be the issue.
The big name in the top half of the draw (in the 1st Quarter) is Novak Djokovic, who is 3/1 at best for the trophy. With Rafael Nadal odds-on favourite at 8/11 (1.73) and Roger Federer (20/1) in the bottom half, along with former Roland Garros champion Stan Wawrinka (33/1) and the upcoming Stefanos Tsitsipas (20/1) – the top half looks the more likely place for an outsider to come through…
With Khachanov not able to face Djokovic until the semi finals, standout odds of 200/1 and 100/1 for the Russian could provide a decent trade opportunity if he can get past Martin Klizan today. Klizan had a five-set epic over two days in the last round, and yesterday’s tense battle will likely have taken plenty out of him – while Khachanov had a spare day to prepare.
Karen hasn’t been in the best form so far in 2019, but as we’ve said before, the lights can come on out of the blue at a Grand Slam. And there’s no doubt in my mind that Khachanov will be challenging for the big trophies as his career continues. He’s already got one big one – here in the French capital at the Paris Masters last November.
With Nadal and Djokovic bossing the market, the only players I want to follow in the Men’s Outright Winner are genuine outside chances where the price is enough to justify the speculative risk. With 500/1 Lucas Pouille knocked out 3-2 yesterday (served for the match v Klizan), 200/1 Khachanov can take up the reins for us as we target this section of the draw with a second bite of the cherry.
In the To Win the 2nd Quarter betting, Khachanov is a top price 8/1 to reach the semi finals, behind Thiem at 4/5 (1.80) and Del Potro at 4/1. Gael Monfils is 8/1 at best but like Del Potro, fitness levels are always the concern with the French entertainer.
The Outright market with the big prices is where we want to be. Some bookies are now going reduced Each Way terms of 1/3rd odds for 1-2 places. We want to be with the firms still offering 1/2 odds, as going after the payout for getting to the final is the key here.
Men’s Outright Winner:
BET: Karen Khachanov @ 200/1 Each Way
BOOKIES: 200/1 888 Sport, Unibet, 100/1 Skybet, 80/1 Ladbrokes, Coral, William Hill, NetBet, 10Bet
Nobody beats Lesia Tsurenko 8 times in a row…?
The reigning champ is first on Court Philippe-Chatrier this morning, with Simona Halep taking on Lesia Tsurenko…
The head-to-head here is one of the most one-sided on the tour: 7-0 to Halep.
Tsurenko is 10/1 at best for the upset today. Ukrainian fans can take heart from Halep’s comments after her 2nd Round match on Thursday, with the Romanian saying she planned to spend Friday “in bed” – having been feeling unwell so far this week.
A few players have been battling illness, including Kiki Bertens who pulled out of the tournament.
Jo Konta has been under the weather, too – but that hasn’t stopped her putting in some great performances. Who knows, maybe it even helps some players to ‘dig in’ and focus on the job at hand.
Halep been made to work in the opening two rounds with a brace of 2-1 victories. She has dropped sets in each of her last five matches on the tour. However, the World No.3 has only ever lost one set of tennis out of a total of 13 sets played against No.27 Tsurenko…
Simona is far from unbeatable this fortnight. It’s been 12 years since anyone successfully defended the Women’s French Open title. I’m not sure Tsurenko is the player to end her reign today. But if that 7-0 head-to-head does get halted – you heard it here first…
The Rollover – bet No.1…
Since we started our new Rollover feature in April we’ve had three attempts (3 x £10 starting stake), and one winning run which banked £117.81.
We’re looking to start a new run today, and what better candidate for bet No.1 than the World No.1…
Osaka has had to dig deep in the opening rounds, with two 2-1 victories after losing the first set both times. Naomi looks to be slowly going through the gears though, and I think those early wobbles have nudged her price out a bit today. This is a player on a 16-match winning streak at Grand Slams.
Siniakova played fantastic against Maria Sakkari in the last round. But after a three-set, three-hour tussle there she’ll struggle to replicate that performance level today.
Our £10 starting stake goes on Osaka at 1/3 (1.33) available with Bet365, William Hill, BetVictor, Betway, Boylesports, NetBet & 10Bet.
I’ll be back tomorrow at 8am with your Bets of the Day for Sunday, with the start of the 4th Round.
Enjoy the tennis…
Remember if you have any questions or want to drop me a line during the tournament, I’m on hand via email. You can message me at: firstname.lastname@example.org