Tennis Betting Advice - June 2019
This week’s picks – at 9/1 and 40/1…
Monday 17th June 2019
In your Ones to Watch email today:
Conditions play their part…
Richard Gasquet didn’t have the rub of the green last week.
Going into the ATP ‘s-Hertogenbosch tournament as the reigning champion, Gasquet was often billed in the headline slot on the daily schedules. However, with frequent rain delays throughout the week, that late scheduling actually did the Frenchman no favours. Two of his matches had to be spread over two days. And another two were end-of-day finishes in fading light.
As it was, our 12/1 pick did well to stick with it and reach the semi finals. Gasquet came a cropper to a fresher opponent with unheralded Australian, Jordan Thompson beating our man to reach his first ever ATP Tour final. Adrian Mannarino (28/1) beat Thompson (40/1) to lift the trophy. Our semi final saver bet on Thompson to beat Gasquet put us just above break even for the week.
Last week’s other Ones to Watch Outright Winner selection was 11/1 Dayana Yastremska at WTA Nottingham. Yastremska withdrew before taking any part in proceedings, with the official WTA Nottingham amended draw-sheet stating ‘viral illness’ as the reason. Our Outright Winner bet was void with stakes returned. The 19-year-old Ukrainian is on our Ones to Watch in 2019 list and as such is one to follow throughout the season. Yastremska is in the WTA Birmingham draw as a 25/1 shot this week. We should wait and see if she’s good & fit to play before placing any bets on the teenager.
That Nottingham tournament was severely hampered by rain delays. Caroline Garcia (7/1) ended up winning the trophy. With many matches moved to indoor courts due to the rain, runner-up Donna Vekic (13/2 – 7.50) didn’t actually play a match on the grass until the semi finals.
There is more rain forecast this week but things look to be picking up from midweek onward…
Grass season picks up pace…
After two ATP 250 level tournaments and two WTA International grade events last week, the grass court season steps up a notch this week with two ATP 500s at Queen’s & Halle and a WTA Premier at Birmingham as well as an International in Mallorca.
Roger Federer is playing his annual Wimbledon ‘warm-up’ at Halle. King Roger has won here in Germany nine times – and made the final 12 times in his last 13 visits. Federer is 11/10 (2.10) at best to land Halle title number 10.
Other big names starting their 2019 grass campaigns this week include Juan Martin Del Potro at Queen’s Club in London (6/1 favourite). And Women’s World No.1 Naomi Osaka and freshly minted French Open champion Ashleigh Barty, who go off as the favourites in Birmingham at 13/2 (7.50) and 9/2 (5.50) respectively.
We’ll look more at the other draws and possibly back a couple more players in the next day or two, but for today we’re kicking off the week with Outright Winner bets in Mallorca and at Queen’s…
Ones to Watch this week – at 9/1 and 40/1…
Two very different picks and prices here. But both are good on the grass and both are having excellent seasons…
Belinda Bencic is our early One to Watch for Wimbledon, backed at massive prices in January. If you’re not on yet, take the 28/1 or 25/1 still available. This year’s Wimbledon Women’s title looks more ‘wide open’ than ever – and Belinda looks like a real contender.
The 22-year-old Swiss has a 69% career match win-loss record on grass. Bencic won WTA Eastbourne on grass in 2015 and hit the Top 10 before injuries struck. This year is shaping up to be her best yet: 2019 could go down as the year that the Junior star made good on her early promise.
Bencic is 9/1 and 8/1 for WTA Mallorca this week and those odds look plenty acceptable when you consider the other favourites all look a little dodgy in terms of value…
Teenager Amanda Anisimova is 8/1 but that price is largely influenced by her surprise semi-final run at last month’s French Open.
Angelique Kerber is the 6/1 market leader, but the Wimbledon champion has been battling injury in recent months and was last seen crashing out of the French Open in the 1st Round. Kerber lost in the 1st Round in her only previous appearance here in Mallorca.
Bencic is a player we should follow this summer, starting from now.
ATP Queen’s Club:
Over at the prestigious ATP Queen’s event – the traditional Wimbledon precursor – the draw isn’t packed with as many star names as it usually is. There’s no World No.1 Novak Djokovic this time, no Andy Murray – and Rafael Nadal hasn’t played Queen’s since 2015.
Last year’s winner Marin Cilic is 8/1 but hasn’t reached any other finals since doing so here 12 months ago.
With the 2019 Queen’s Club drawing looking a little softer than usual, this looks as good a time as any to take a play on a big-price outsider. And what better candidate than a British player on a 10-match winning streak on grass…
Dan Evans has bounced back from suspension & controversy in the best way possible this season: by showing what a good player he actually is. Dan has just won back to back grass court titles in England on the lower-tier ATP Challenger Tour, winning at Surbiton and then Nottingham.
Add in an impressive match against Federer at the Australian Open (after which Federer invited Evans to Switzerland to be his hitting partner)… another Challenger final (Quimper)… and a first main tour ATP final (100/1 runner-up at Delray Beach). It’s clear that Dan is in-form and there’s no reason why he can’t achieve much more in the game from here on in. Age 29, he knows it’s now or never.
Evans has a tough 1st Round draw v Stan Wawrinka. But he pushed Stan to a deciding set at Indian Wells in March. And also took him to a final set at the US Open 2016 – the year that Wawrinka went on to win the whole thing. Those close-fought matches were on hard courts. On grass, Dan has his best opportunity to get the win over Stan. The Swiss star has fallen at the first hurdle in two of his last three visits to Queen’s Club.
Should he get past Wawrinka, Evans’ route has plenty of hope in it with Nicolas Mahut (injury issues) or Frances Tiafoe (out of form and not his best surface) in the next round. And after that, things could get very interesting with odds of 40/1 on our side…
Today’s Ones to Watch picks:
WTA Mallorca – Mallorca Open
BET: Belinda Bencic @ 9/1 Each Way
BOOKIES: 9/1 (10.00) Ladbrokes, Coral, 8/1 (9.00) Skybet
ATP Queen’s Club – Fever-Tree Championships
BET: Dan Evans @ 40/1 Each Way
BOOKIES: 40/1 (41.00) Bet365, Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook, 33/1 (34.00) Skybet, Ladbrokes, Coral
Play starts from 11am. Bookies will temporarily take down their Outright Winner markets during the day’s play.
I’ll be back later in the week with more picks & advice.
Enjoy the tennis…