Tennis Betting Advice - June 2019
33/1 and 50/1 picks for Eastbourne…
Monday 24th June 2019
In your Ones to Watch email today:
The Final Countdown…
We’ve had seven Each Way picks in finals this season. Six of them have lost in the final. Belinda Bencic was the latest one. Or 9/1 pick finished runner-up at WTA Mallorca on Sunday.
No complaints this time. Bencic had three Championship Points, but couldn’t take them. She served three Double Faults in one game when serving for the match.
Sofia Kenin showed her grit and determination and hung in to win 6-7, 7-6, 6-4. Justifying our hedge bet on Kenin in the final. Along with the place payout on Bencic, it was a profitable week.
Heading towards Wimbledon, we’re in good form with our Ones to Watch picks. If we were a tennis player, I’d be backing us. Since the last week of April, we’ve reached three finals (at odds of 20/1, 40/1 and 9/1). Along with a further quarter final and two other semi finals.
Ones to Watch this week – at 33/1 and 50/1…
This week’s calendar contains the final three grass court events in the build-up to Wimbledon. The men are in action at Antalya and Eastbourne. The women are in Eastbourne too. For our first bets of the week, we’re focusing on the WTA event on the south coast…
There’s one week until Wimbledon. You don’t need me to tell you that SW19 is the big one. The players know it too. I won’t be backing any of the big names at short prices this week. Two Each Way prices appeal…
New World No.1 Ashleigh Barty is the 5/1 favourite here. I wouldn’t be surprised if she pulls out over the next few days. Having won the French Open on clay then successfully moved onto the grass by lifting the WTA Birmingham trophy on Sunday, Barty may choose to preserve some energy and concentrate on next week’s Grand Slam tournament.
French Open semi-finalist Johanna Konta is the 10/1 second favourite. Barty and Konta are in the 1st Quarter of the draw. And the Eastbourne draw-sheet looks top heavy with Quarter 2 including defending Wimbledon champion Angelique Kerber (12/1) and fellow Top 10-er and multiple Grand Slam winner Simona Halep (12/1).
It makes sense then to look to the bottom half…
After a spell of illness & injury, reigning Eastbourne champion Caroline Wozniacki (25/1) hasn’t played a match on tour since the last week of May. This is also Wozniacki’s first appearance on court since getting married earlier this month.
Two Top 10 players, Karolina Pliskova (11/1) and Kiki Bertens (14/1), are the Outright favourites from the bottom half of the draw.
Pliskova is a former Eastbourne champ but fell in the quarters here last summer, and has made a ropey start to the 2019 grass campaign. Bertens is only won 15 lost 16 on grass for her career overall, although to be fair she has picked up in that department in the last 12 months by making the Wimbledon quarter finals last year before blowing championship points in the final at her ‘home’ event at ‘s-Hertogenbosch earlier this month. Still, I don’t like those two at the prices this week.
Better then to go after an eye-catching price…
Form horses are often worth following at specific tournaments. Look at last week’s 40/1 wild-card Queen’s winner Feliciano Lopez. He won the title at Queen’s Club in 2017, too (at 22/1).
Aryna Sabalenka (33/1) is on our Ones to Watch in 2019 list but has so far failed to hit the heights of her breakthrough 2018 season. She made the final at Eastbourne last year. If she can block out the pressure of defending those ranking points and get a bit of her confidence back into her all-or-nothing power game, then the 21-year-old Belarusian can take advantage of a potentially vulnerable week-before-a-Grand-Slam field here.
Sabalenka has a Bye through to the 2nd Round, so that’s a useful leg up. You don’t get to No.9 in the world for nothing. Her form will return at some point. And it’ll probably come out of the blue. Odds of 33/1 and 25/1 could prove too big.
Anett Kontaveit (50/1) is another big-hitter who can veer dramatically between supreme hitting and wild misses. That criteria means we should only back her when the price and situation look particularly good. This is one of those weeks.
Kontaveit was on our Ones to Watch in 2018 list and seeing as the Estonian is still only 23 years of age, the current World No.20 has plenty of time to deliver. Anett has an impressive 40-15 career match win-loss on grass (73%). That includes a 2017 WTA title at ‘s-Hertogenbosch – and winning the lower-tier ITF event here in Eastbourne in 2015.
She will likely have to face Bertens – but Kontaveit has taken at least one set off the Dutchwoman in all three of their previous meetings. And having won her opening match on Sunday, Kontaveit is already safely through to the 2nd Round. Skybet make her as short as 16/1. We can get 50/1, 40/1 & 33/1 elsewhere…
Today’s Ones to Watch picks:
WTA Eastbourne – Nature Valley International
BET: Aryna Sabalenka @ 33/1 Each Way
BOOKIES: 33/1 (34.00) Ladbrokes, Coral, 25/1 (26.00) Bet365, Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook
BET: Anett Kontaveit @ 50/1 Each Way
BOOKIES: 50/1 (51.00) 888 Sport, Unibet, 40/1 (41.00) Bet365, 33/1 (34.00) Ladbrokes, Coral, Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook
Play starts from 11am. Bookies will temporarily take down their Outright Winner markets during the day’s play.
I’ll be back later in the week with more picks & advice. And then we’re off to Wimbledon.
Enjoy the tennis…